31/01/2005 - A new study
commissioned by WWF shows that dangerous
levels of climate change could be reached
in just over 20 years time.
The review of global climate simulations
suggests that if nothing is done, the earth
will have warmed by 2 degrees C (3.6 degrees
F) above pre-industrial levels (c. 10000)
by some time between 2026 and 2060. In the
Arctic this could lead to a loss of summer
sea ice, species, and some types of tundra
vegetation as well as to a fundamental change
in the ways of life of Inuit and other arctic
residents.
The WWF study — Arctic Climate Change with
a 2 degree C Global Warming" by Dr.
Mark New of Oxford University —says the
models show that, if the rest of the planet
warms by an average of 2 degrees C, the
Arctic will warm by up to three times that
amount (3.2 to 6.6 degrees C depending on
the model).
According to Dr. New, "A very robust
result from global climate models is that
warming due to greenhouse gases will reduce
the amount of snow and ice cover in the
Arctic, which will in turn produce an additional
warming as more solar radiation is absorbed
by the ground and the ocean."
Ice and snow reflect more solar radiation
back to space than unfrozen surfaces.
Dr. New’s research is one of four contributing
papers to the WWF report — 2° Is Too
Much!: Evidence and Implications of Dangerous
Climate Change in the Arctic" — to
be presented at the February conference
on avoiding dangerous climate change, organized
by the British government in Exeter, south-west
England.
Arctic ecosystems and residents are in
the frontline when it comes to impacts of
climate change.
"Global warming threatens to wreak
havoc on the traditional ways of life of
Inuit, putting an end to our hunting and
food sharing culture," said Sheila
Watt-Cloutier, elected chair of the Inuit
Circumpolar Conference (ICC), another contributor
to the WWF report.
The WWF report finds that so-called summer
sea ice is melting at a rate of 9.6 per
cent per decade. If this continues for more
than a few decades, the study warns, this
perennial ice will disappear entirely by
the end of the century. This would mean
that polar bears and some ice-dwelling seals
would die out, threatening the food security
of the indigenous communities who hunt them.
Another one of the papers shows that boreal
forests will spread north and overwhelm
up to 60 per cent of dwarf shrub tundra,
a critical habitat for birds like ravens,
snow buntings, falcons, loons, sandpipers,
and terns. Migratory birds will lose a vital
breeding ground in the Arctic, affecting
biodiversity around the globe.
"If we don't act immediately the arctic
will soon become unrecognizable," said
Tonje Folkestad, climate change officer
with WWF’s International Arctic Programme.
"Polar bears will be consigned to history,
something that our grandchildren can only
read about in books."
WWF is calling on participants at the climate
change conference in Exeter to give a clear
message to the G8 governments meeting in
the UK later this year.
"If we are to ensure that unique ecosystems
like the Arctic are not lost, the G8 meeting
must take drastic action to reduce climate
change," said Dr Catarina Cardoso,
WWF- UK programme leader on sustainable
energy. "This must include a commitment
to keeping global average temperature below
an average of 2 degrees C and to switching
to efficient and renewable energy."
According to WWF, renewable energy technologies
such as wind, biomass, geothermal, and solar
electricity, are not only available but
in many cases would save consumers money.
Renewable energy coupled with energy conservation
measures are the key to reducing CO2 emissions,
the main greenhouse gas.
Notes:
• The Inuit Circumpolar Conference represents
Inuit people living in four countries: Greenland,
Canada, Alaska/USA and Chukotka/The Russian
Federation.
