13/01/2005 - Ski slopes
everywhere, International — Snow machines
aren't going to cut it, and we all know that
slush sucks. Research in Canada, the USA,
Australia, New Zealand, Austria, Switzerland,
France and Scotland all say the same thing:
global warming will affect the winter tourism
industry. So far, the nothern hemisphere ski
season is suggesting that skiers and snowboarders
need to start getting active if they want
their sport to survive.
According to the National Climactic Data
Center in the US, the global combined average
land and sea temperatures were the warmest
on record for September - November 2004. That's
bad news for winter sport. A UN report states
the obvious: "Climate change is a severe
threat to snow related sports such as skiing,
snowboarding and cross-country skiing".
Before we all go and buy hang-gliders, can't
we just use more snow machines? Possibly,
but that solution doesn't take into account
the fact that the availability of water for
making snow may be more limited in future,
not to mention that it's going to cost a lot
more to make that much snow - you and I won't
be able to afford to go skiing anyway. According
to projected ski season losses, the amount
of snowmaking required could increase by 36
- 144 percent in the 2020s and 48 - 187 percent
in the 2050s in Canada alone. That's a lot
more snow machines.
In the UK, there has been an unmistakable
pattern of snow decline, to the point that
Scottish ski centres have been diversifying
into other businesses including golf, go-carting
and paragliding. In fact, the European Environment
Agency published a disturbing report in 2004
saying that Europe is warming up more quickly
than the rest of the world and cold winters
could disappear almost entirely by 2080.
Apart from the entrepreneurial Scots, a lot
of the tourism industry seems to be in denial.
The United Nations report from December 2003
says that tourism representatives are still
playing down the consequences of climate change.
On the other hand, they seem to be more than
happy to cite global warming when they need
arguments for buying new snow machines, extending
existing ski runs and opening new higher altitude
ski resorts!
It's not just less snow, fewer glaciers and
warmer temperatures that are the problems
- climate change brings with it unpredictable
weather events and melting snow which can
cause landslides. In 1999 the 'avalanche winter'
in Switzerland damaged 20 ski lifts, 11 chair-lifts,
4 cable railways and 1 funicular, costing
up to US$130 million. Researchers in Zurich
also say that huge swathes of ice needed to
support plant and animal life in the mountains
have already disappeared, causing other dangers
such as rock slides (which obviously aren't
exactly a tourist attraction).
Let's take a mountain by mountain look at
what is actually happening.
Australia
According to the Australian Government science
organisation CSIRO, by 2020, the average annual
duration of snow-cover decreases by between
five and 40 days and the total area covered
in snow shrinks by 10-40 percent. By 2050,
season durations are reduced by between 15
and 100 days and the total area covered in
snow shrinks by 20 to 85 percent.
Canada
The average ski season in Canada is projected
to reduce by 0-16 percent in the 2020s, 7-32
percent in the 2050s and 11-50 percent in
the 2080s. Without artificial snowmaking -
which will be more expensive due to the increasing
lack of real snow - the season could decline
by 37 - 57 percent in the 2050s.
Switzerland
Today, 85 percent of Switzerland's 230 ski
resorts are "snow-reliable". This
is likely to drop to 63 percent between 2030
and 2050, and it could possibly drop to 44
percent. The potential annual cost of climate
change in Switzerland is of such magnitude
that it can't be ignored.
Italy, Germany and Austria
The impacts of climate change on winter tourism
will probably be even worse in countries like
Germany and Austria, due to the low altitudes
of their ski resorts. In Italy also, half
of the winter sport villages are below 1,300
metres, and some of these are already facing
problems with less snow. If the altitude for
snow reliability rises just 200 metres, many
of these resorts will not exist.
United States
Snow levels in the US are likely to rise
at the rate of "300 feet for every degree
of [global] warming" (a bit less than
100 metres) say scientists from the University
of Washington. The lowest ski resort in the
US state of Washington is Snoqualmie (you
will have seen it if you watched David Lynch's
'Twin Peaks' on tv) at 975 metres above sea
level. Researchers say that a Snoqualmie skiing
season that is now four months long will probably
shrink to less than 3 months within 20 years,
and down to 2 months in 40 years. Last year
the season was delayed due to lack of snow.
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