20/06/2005 - Greg Hunt
MP, Parliamentary Secretary to the Minister
for the Environment and Heritage, said the
Bureau of Meteorology has advised that the
likelihood of an El Niño event forming
in 2005 has reduced.
"We are now entering the end of the critical
March-June period for an El Niño event
to become established, and on the basis of
recent information the likelihood of such
an event developing this year has begun to
diminish," Mr Hunt said.
"The odds on current trends are nearer
to the long-term average of a 25% chance of
an El Nino event in 2005 - down from the autumn
outlook of between 30 and 50%."
Mr Hunt said a further assessment of the
forecast would be made at the start of July
when complete data for the month of June becomes
available.
"If these trends continue, there is
cause for some optimism that Australia will
continue to see some easing of rainfall deficiencies,"
Mr Hunt said. Recent rains across eastern
Australia have provided some relief from the
very warm and dry start to the year, and raised
the prospects for the winter cropping season.
"However, it remains too early to say
when the lingering warmth in the tropical
Pacific Ocean will completely dissipate,"
Mr Hunt said. This warmth, coupled with consistently
negative values of the Southern Oscillation
Index, has contributed to the failure to see
a full recovery from the 2002-03 drought in
many areas.
