11/09/2005 - PRELUDE, a
highly visual presentation from the European
Environment Agency in Copenhagen, explores
five possible futures for a Europe that is
experiencing major changes in the way we use
our land.
Day-to-day policy making usually addresses
the immediate or short term needs of a society.
Policy is often broken into segments such
as: Transport, Energy, Agriculture, Environment
and so on. PRELUDE suggests that future policy
makers must take note of a complex mix of
expected environmental changes, unexpected
events and the societal responses to both.
With the PRELUDE project, the European Environment
Agency hopes to encourage longer term planning
based on integrated policy making. Irrespective
of the storyline behind each of the five scenarios,
the key message of PRELUDE is that policy
decisions impact on each other in ways that
were not always intended. By taking an integrated
approach, we start to build policies in one
area that compliment policies in another.
Based on input from key 'stakeholders' from
across Europe, such as farmers, non-government
organisations (NGO's), scientific researchers
and policy makers, PRELUDE presents five future
scenarios following the social knock-on effects
of contrasting land use policy. However, while
looking forward, we should also learn from
the past.
Historic precedent tells us that our future
will be moulded by a mixture of human decisions
and actions as well as a series of often unrelated
events and pressures. The latter could be
'creeping changes' such as the cooling of
the Atlantic Ocean's gulf stream or more spectacular
'surprises' such as a major ecological disaster.
These events are difficult to predict but
the chance is that something unexpected will
happen.
Because of PRELUDE's relatively short time
span of 30 years, the basic assumptions on
climate change are similar for all scenarios.
In some, however, climate change causes major
disasters, whereas in others it is more of
a background phenomenon. Societal responses
are consequently very different.
In each scenario, factors, including demographic
trends, spatial planning patterns, agricultural
policy, climate change and other key driving
forces, lead to changes in land use and land
cover. This results in a range of impacts
on, biodiversity, water quality, flooding,
greenhouse gas emissions, soil erosion, and
landscape identity.
'There is a severe energy crisis. Serious
flooding is forcing people out of vulnerable
areas and back into the rural landscape. Despite
initial hardships, most people are learning
to cope with the challenges. Community spirit
is rediscovered as people struggle to rebuild
their lives. Small scale farms, many of them
organic, spring up. Government policy is changing
to support this new lifestyle ...'
The above scenario does not immediately spring
to mind when we think of a future affected
by severe environmental change. People bonding
together and rediscovering a 'back to basic's'
life in the countryside doesn't sound too
bad. Will it happen? We don't know.
Notes on PRELUDE
The acronym PRELUDE comes from the longer
project title: PRospective Environmental analysis
of Land Use Development in Europe.
More information on the methodology: PRELUDE
uses the 'Story-and-Simulation' approach to
develop 'qualitative' storylines that are
underpinned by quantitative modelling techniques.
Story lines were developed by key stake holders.
Then the implications of the stories in terms
of land use and the environment were analysed
using state of the art simulation models.
For background information on the PRELUDE
project please visit the 'Environmental Scenarios
- Information Web Portal': http://scenarios.ewindows.eu.org/reports/fol077184
