Introduction

Science is a double-edged blade. It offers us the comfort of better understanding our world - but also the certainty of how much remains to be understood. It underscores the results of cause and effect – but can paralyse for fear of unknown consequences. The American botanist Paul Sears once wrote that: “Science has the power to illuminate, but not to solve, the deeper problems of mankind. For always after knowledge, come choice and action, both of them intensely personal and individual.”

It is science, choice, and action that must occupy our deliberations for the next three days. We have much knowledge about a global threat with serious local implications. Our choice now, as individuals, communities, and nations must be to acknowledge this danger, and to act to avert the worst consequences – preparing our communities to adapt to this danger and to do our part in addressing its causes.

On behalf of the Departments of Environmental Affairs & Tourism, and Science & Technology – and here I would like to recognise the key role played by my colleague, the Minister of Science & Technology in planning and hosting this conference with us - as well as our partners from the South African National Biodiversity Institute and the Royal Society in the UK, I would like to welcome you all to South Africa , to Midrand, and to this groundbreaking Science Conference on Climate Change. This is the first Government-initiated and -driven event of its kind, and on this scale, in South Africa . It is the concrete manifestation of Government’s determination to act on climate change and to shape Government policy informed by the best-available science.

It is time to give voice to Africa ’s climate change priorities. It is time to bring African insight and African science to bear. For too many years the response to climate change has been moulded primarily by nations and institutions whose approaches fail to capture the unique African perspective. Few places on Earth better embody the proof of human-induced climate change, the vulnerabilities to its effects, or the need for improved adaptation and massively increased resources.

Science Case Has Been Made and Won

A simple Google search on climate change returns more than 66 million website responses – with so much information and opinion about the issue, we clearly need the most rational and reasoned approach to sift fact from fiction. One of the most valuable qualities of good science and rigorous scientists is healthy scepticism. The refusal by scientists to accept phenomena at face-value presents our last and best line of defence against untested theories and unwise or unwarranted reactions.

The other side of this coin however, is that there comes a point in all scientific debate when the weight of evidence is so persuasive, and the scientific consensus so wide-spread, that the debate must move on, and rather than questioning the reality, the scientific debate must ask how we deal with that reality – in particular, how we adapt to it. It is from this point onwards that the failure to act, even from a position of scientific scepticism, is both negligent and futile. We will not be derailed from our responsibility to act by endless engagement with fringe scientists.

It is the firm belief of our Government that, as humanity, we have reached and passed this point in the debate about the science of climate change. We accept that climate change is happening, that there is compelling evidence that it is being accelerated by human activity, and that it must be addressed.

This is not to say that there is no need for further research – clearly the enquiry and investigation into the science of climate change must continue and deepen our understanding, but the time has come to boldly apply the precautionary approach. It is time to act, time to change behaviour, and time to prepare our communities to deal with the social, economic and human impacts of climate change.

Call for Global Climate Change Awareness Campaign

Nothing combats denial or changes behaviour as effectively as information. We now have a need for a world-wide climate change awareness campaign to demystify and mainstream climate change – to raise it from the level of statistics and scientific data to one of every-day experience. We need to build domestic constituencies in support of our political efforts.

Why do our crops fail and our rivers run dry more often? Why are we lashed by more frequent hurricanes, tornadoes and extreme storms? Why do floods and fires seem more intense every year? Although there are many variables that influence weather in the short term, when global patterns shift over many years it is climate change that emerges. We need to make the link, in the minds of ordinary people around the world between their actions and climate change. Between the cars and factories that belch black smoke and the melting glaciers on Mount Kilimanjaro . We need to link the devastation and tragedy of more intense extreme weather events to the energy wasted by millions of lights left to burn in empty offices and homes for no reason. We need to stir up global determination, creating a popular groundswell of pressure on those Governments and corporations who remain beyond the reach of our international efforts to address the problem.

The Climate Change ‘Smoking Gun’

Hurricane Katrina, Hurricane Stan, Typhoon Longwang and the severity of the extreme weather events they represent are the collective ‘smoking gun’ of global climate change. As Africans and as global citizens, one of our most urgent priorities must be to convince all countries – especially the rich and industrialised nations – to join and support the multi-lateral international effort to prevent the current trajectory towards dangerous levels of climate change, and address the ongoing impacts of climate change experienced by vulnerable countries. We note with concern that a country like the United States , with 4% of the global population producing 25% of global carbon dioxide emissions, remains outside of the Kyoto Protocol.

I have no doubt that the next few years will be crucial to move us beyond the approach of stalling, of avoidance, and of excuses to one where all accept the responsibility to deal with climate change, while recognising the specific circumstances and capabilities of different countries.

In this effort we will need science to continue to strengthen our hand. I would urge that we make use of this conference to send an African message to the international community of scientists – to resist the allure of toeing special interest group political lines, and to help us to mitigate against the smoking gun of climate change.

Applying the Science

As important as it is for us to mitigate against climate change we also need to focus more clearly on developing the scientific base and technologies to manage the unintended consequences of mitigation measures on the economies of countries which remain heavily dependent on fossil fuel exports. In this regard, South Africa finds itself in a very similar position of vulnerability to many of the OPEC states – with similar economic risks associated with the reduction of, in our case, coal exports and domestic coal use, and therefore similar challenges in terms of the need for economic diversification.

Science also holds great value in the development and interpretation of early-warning mechanisms when we adopt the precautionary approach. Take just one example – a report released l ate last month by the US National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) shows that the loss of summer sea ice in the Artic over the past four years has been equivalent to an area of more than 1,3 million square kilometres – roughly the size of South Africa’s entire surface area – and that it is feared the polar ice cap may disappear within decades during the summer period. As the decline in artic sea ice opens historically closed sea-routes and new shipping possibilities from Asia to Europe, we need to ask ourselves how this will be likely to impact on trade passing through the Suez Canal or even around the Southern tip of Africa? It is believed that within 20 years the annual value of these newly opened shipping lanes could exceed $100 million. The precautionary approach applies - we cannot afford to wait until the inevitable happens. In business and Government we need to understand the science, and to identify and plan today for African scenarios like this one.

Adapting to Climate Change

It is not just on the scale of geopolitical strategy that this is true – we need science to help us adapt at the most local level as well. We must acknowledge that adaptation science in South Africa , Africa , and around the world has not received the same attention or funding as mitigation, and remains in its infancy. Yet it is small scale agriculture and our rural farmers who will be hardest hit – especially because they are not capital intensive and often lack access to information and alternatives. As climate change threatens our herds and crops with changes in rainfall patterns and temperature ranges, our farmers will either be forced off their land or they must stand ready with new management strategies. We will need more resistant crops and animal varieties, more sustainable land management practices, and better support for farmers. If the choice is between losing a farm or switching crops – say from dairy to meat production, or from apples to olives and grapes – then these are decisions we must begin to address today.

From improved disaster management and emergency response planning to the decisions we make about the materials to build our houses, climate change will require adaptation in almost all spheres if life. If fish species migrate in our changing marine ecosystems, we need to understand these patterns to know how best to allocate long term commercial fishing rights – like West Coast Rock Lobster for instance. In our health sciences we need increased capacity to track regional trends and combat the spread of diseases like Malaria, as well as the extension of rural health care. In the provision of basic services we will need to explore new sources of water supply, for instance, especially in regions like the Western Cape – looking at accessing aquifer stores and investigating other methods like desalination technology.

Global warming, and its impact on our ecosystem, therefore has a direct impact on the economies and livelihoods of developing nations, and will undermine the ability of countries like our own to achieve the Millennium Development Goals. When we integrate adaptation considerations into national policy and planning, or when we develop and deploy adaptation technology, this must therefore be driven by a sustainable development approach.

Conclusion

We have with us Professor Sir Peter Crane, representing the Royal Society and Director of the Royal Botanic Gardens, Kew, with whom we are partnered in a number of innovative ventures – not least of which is the Millennium Seedbank Project. Under our own SA National Biodiversity Institute (SANBI), and the leadership of Professor Brian Huntley and his team, this initiative has seen more than 1150 varieties of rare and endangered South African seeds added to the almost 12000 from 130 other nations, and stored in the UK as a DNA insurance-policy, against a future in which climate change and development threaten our global biodiversity.

It was the noted Russian author and biochemist, Isaac Asimov who once said that: “ The saddest aspect of life right now is that science gathers knowledge faster than society gathers wisdom.” This science conference aims to falsify that observation. Our ideal must be to ensure that the Millennium Seedbank, and projects like it, are never needed.

I wish you every success in the deliberations of the next three days, and anticipate a Science Statement as the concrete outcome of the conference. As Africans we must assist in developing the wisdom to acknowledge the threat of global climate change, the clarity of judgment to place it at the forefront of our policy-making, and the courage to act on this understanding.