23/12/2005
- 2005 has experienced the highest global surface temperature
in more than a century according to the United States NASA
Goddard Institute for Space Study analysis of the meteorological
year (December 2004 – November 2005). This
will likely be true for the 2005 calendar year as well,
as suggested by NASA, because differences between meteorological
year and calendar year are usually extremely small.
However, because of the errors that
accompany the observations, 2005 may have tied 1998 for
the hottest year.
Nevertheless, whether 2005 is tied
for the hottest (equaling 1998) or comes in second behind
1998, but ahead of 2004, which was ahead of 2003, which
was ahead of 2002…. the picture is the same, the planet
is getting hotter.
It is particularly significant that
2005 is tied with 1998 for the hottest year because 1998
was an El Niño year, a condition that naturally
makes the key parts of the planet warmer. 2005 was not
a year with El Niño conditions so this high temperature
was reached as part of an upward trajectory caused by
increasing greenhouse gases, such as CO2, in the atmosphere
due to the burning of fossil fuels.
In addition to NASA Goddard Institute
for Space Study, two other climate monitoring organizations,
the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
and the U.K. Meteorological Office, agree that 2005 is
the hottest year on record for the Northern Hemisphere,
at roughly 0.72 degrees C (1.3 degrees Fahrenheit) above
the historical average.
Whether 2005 has been the hottest year, is tied for the
hottest year, or is the second hottest year, the problem
is still the same – the planet is heating up.
Sources of disagreement
From the following article: The heat was on in 2005
Robert Henson, Nature 438, 1062 (22 December 2005) doi:10.1038/4381062a
"There are three teams that rank
global temperatures. Their results vary mainly because
of differences in how they combine data sets.
Each group draws on a different mix
of the planet's land-based temperature stations to construct
a temperature record. The University of East Anglia's
Climatic Research Unit (CRU) uses about 4,200 stations
worldwide; the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
(NOAA) uses 7,200 and NASA uses 6,000.
They also differ in how they analyse
this information. NASA and NOAA pool their data, weighted
by area, across the globe. But the Northern Hemisphere
has much more land than the Southern: "We think this
adds a northern bias," says Philip Jones of the CRU.
His team averages the data for each hemisphere, then combines
them. Another difference is that NASA calculates its temperature
differences using a 1951–80 base period; the others use
1961–90.
But overall, the results are more
alike than they are different. The three groups report
similar rates of warming over land in the past century,
according to a recent analysis by NOAA's Russell Vose.
Adding measurements from the ocean
brings more uncertainty. For decades, scientists relied
on fairly crude sea-surface-temperature measurements collected
by ships through buckets and engine intakes. But by the
early 11000s, sea-surface data from ships and buoys became
more widely available, as did air temperatures construed
from satellite data.
NOAA and NASA use an index that includes
all these ocean sources; the CRU and the Hadley Centre
for Climate Prediction and Research in Exeter, UK, rely
on ship and buoy data. There is no consistent difference
in the results, says Hadley's John Kennedy, but this year
the CRU/Hadley index pegs ocean temperatures as being
cooler than they were in 1998. That may be why that team
seems likely to place global air temperatures short of
the 1998 record." |