16/02/2006 - New research
released by the Environment Agency today
shows that the decisions of this generation
will leave a legacy of increasing climate
change over the next millennium unless there
is a major reduction in emissions. With
temperatures increasing by up to 15°C
and seas rising by up to 11.4 metres, low-lying
areas of the UK would be threatened with
flooding and the UK’s climate could resemble
that of today’s tropics by the year 3000.
See the link on the left Climate change
- beyond 2100 to read the full report.
Climate Change on the Millennial Timescale,
by the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change
Research and Environment Agency, is the
first study to comprehensively examine impacts
beyond the end of this century. The report
implies that the UK will need to make major
emissions reductions over the next couple
of decades as part of a global effort to
prevent abrupt climate changes.
Environment Agency Chief Executive, Barbara
Young, said the new research showed that
the next 25 years were crucial in making
tough decisions on reducing the impacts
of climate change.
“We are running out of road on decision
making - unless we dramatically change the
use of fossil fuels then we will be committing
future generations to the most severe impacts
of climate change,” she said.
The new study projects climate change over
the next millennium, examining the impacts
across the centuries. Increasing carbon
dioxide (CO2) emissions lead in one model
to an abrupt climate change where sea temperatures
plunge by 3°C as a result of the collapse
of warm sea currents. A second abrupt change
occurs with the rapid disappearance of the
Arctic sea ice. This warms Arctic seas by
up to 8°C and land temperatures at UK
latitudes by up to 5°C in the space
of a couple of decades.
The report says that by the year 3000:
Global and regional warming could more
than quadruple after 2100: Temperatures
could rise from1.5°C if emissions are
minimised to as much as 15°C if we continue
burning fossil fuels - more than four times
the predictions for the year 2100. The EU
says that “global annual mean surface temperature
increase should not exceed 2°C above
pre-industrial levels”;
Sea levels will still be rising at the end
of this millennium and could reach 11.4m
by year 3000: This would mean that without
action low-lying areas of the UK, including
London, would be threatened by sea level
rise. This figure compares with the Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) global average
sea level change of 0.16 to 0.69m by the
2080s. The definition of “dangerous” climate
change adopted in the study is a global
sea level rise of 2m – which will flood
large areas of Bangladesh, Florida and many
low lying cities, and displace hundreds
of millions of people;
Abrupt climate change events could occur:
Business-as-usual emissions could lead to
the collapse of currents in the Atlantic,
causing North Atlantic sea temperatures
to fall by 3°C, affecting agriculture
and marine life particularly at the latitude
of the UK. If emissions continue, Arctic
sea ice could completely disappear all year
round, causing North Atlantic seas, previously
cooled to heat up to 8°C accompanied
by UK land temperature increases of up to
5°C within 20 years;
These abrupt climate changes can happen
long after emissions cease: Abrupt changes
may be triggered many decades before they
actually occur. Even after emissions have
completely ceased there is still a legacy
from decades past - a “sleeping giant” in
the climate system;
Ocean pH will fall dramatically: Ocean pH
is predicted to fall dramatically posing
a threat to marine organisms, such as corals
and plankton. Such fundamental changes to
plankton would have large implications for
the rest of the marine ecosystem;
Potential climate changes could be much
greater, and avoidance of dangerous climate
change even harder, than currently projected:
Climate changes could be even greater if
the climate system turns out to be more
sensitive to the level of greenhouse gas
emissions than the conservative assumptions
made in this study. Only by minimising emissions,
which means reducing them to zero in 2200
– can dangerous climate change be avoided.
“We now know from this report that we are
walking off a shorter plank than we previously
thought - the research shows far more dangerous
and dramatic climate change effects appearing
much earlier than previously predicted –
tough decisions are needed soon,” Barbara
Young said.
“Many of our coastal towns could be in
jeopardy – immediate action needs to be
taken if we are to avoid many of these impacts.
We need to get tough on energy efficiency.
This means much tighter standards for buildings
and Government providing proper incentives
for businesses and householders to invest
in reducing their emissions. We must also
tackle rising emissions from the transport
sector if we are to meet our 2010 target
of 20% CO2 reduction and tackle more strenuous
targets for 2020,” she said.
Lead author, Dr Tim Lenton, Tyndall Centre
and University of East Anglia, said: "We
present a sobering picture of potential
climate change on the millennial timescale.
Whilst most studies stop at year 2100 with
temperatures and sea level rising we explored
where they are heading into the next millennium.
"Only by starting to reduce CO2 emissions
now, and continuing to reduce them can we
avoid dangerous climate changes on the millennial
time-scale, including the gradual melt of
the Greenland ice sheet" he said.
The report takes into account a wide range
of possible amounts of future emissions
of carbon dioxide - principally greenhouse
gas emitted by the burning of fossil fuels,
it looks at three scenarios:
what happens if emissions are “minimised”
– which means they are reduced steadily
to zero between 2020 and 2200 (implying
humans burn a further 1130 giga tonnes of
carbon, GtC, by 3000);
what happens if its “business as usual”
with humans burning all of the remaining
4000 GtC of conventional fossil fuel reserves
by the year 3000; and
what happens in the worse case scenario
- if humans burn 15000 GtC by 3000 by accessing
unconventional fuels such as oil shales
and methane hydrates.
The only scenario that avoids dangerous
climate change over the long term is the
minimum emissions scenario, which allows
for about one quarter of known fossil fuels
to be used (about 1,000 GtC out of 4-5,000
GtC). This scenario allows for a small increase
in global emissions by 2025 with a steady
linear phase out by 2200. Because we have
high emissions per capita, the implication
for the UK would be a need for deep cuts
in emissions from now on. At present emissions
are rising again in the UK.
"If we follow business-as-usual then
we will commit future generations to dangerous
climate change, and if we exploit unconventional
fossil fuels we could return the Earth to
a hot state it hasn't seen since 55 million
years ago," Dr Lenton said.
The Environment Agency called for immediate
action from Government and industry, including:
New measures to meet the 2010 20% CO2 reduction
target –- The revised Climate Change Programme
due out in March needs to include new measures
to put us back on track to meet the 2010
20% CO2 reduction target. Central to this
will be a much tighter cap for phase II
of the EU Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS)
and new measures to curb transport emissions
such as stronger fiscal measures to promote
the uptake of cleaner vehicles and to encourage
behaviour change. We support the government’s
plan to bring the aviation sector into the
next phase of the EU ETS. The decisions
on the level of the cap for this second
phase and the other measures contained in
this programme will be a key test of Government's
commitment to meeting this target;
Business Incentives -The Energy Review is
an opportunity to put us back on the path
to achieving emission reductions over the
longer term. The review should put in place
a long term, technology neutral mechanism
to incentivise businesses to invest in reducing
carbon emissions through measures like energy
efficiency and renewable energy. Apart from
the Renewables Obligation, there are no
long-term mechanisms in place to incentivise
investment in low carbon technologies (both
Kyoto and the EU ETS only extend out as
far as 2012).Energy-using businesses and
the energy supply sector need reliable signals
that investments in low carbon technologies
will have a value over a longer period than
is currently the case.
Businesses and individuals need to plan
how they would deal with the inevitable
impacts of climate changes – such as flooding
or drought. – Businesses and individuals
must make themselves aware of any climate
change impacts that could affect them and
prepare a plan of action on how they would
respond in order to minimise economic and
health impacts. Government has an important
role in championing action in this area
and we support their plan to develop a central
framework for how the UK adapts to climate
change.
See the link on the left Climate change
- beyond 2100 to read the full report.
Media enquiries: Environment Agency: 020-7863
8710 or after hours press officer on pager
no. 07659 176157. For more information or
to arrange an interview with Dr Tim Lenton
– please contact Nicola Barrell at the UEA
press office: tel: 01603 593007, e-mail:
n.barrell@uea.ac.uk
