Introduction

Speaking in 1965, the founding Director of the US National Center for Atmospheric Research, Dr. Walter Orr Roberts, made the observation that: “For the benefit of mankind we need to attain the maximum possible mastery of our atmospheric environment…the enemy is hail, blizzards, floods, droughts and hurricanes. The enemy is the innate intransigence and inscrutability of nature.”

In December 1998 an elderly gentleman was quietly shopping in a local pharmacy in Umtata, in the Eastern Cape province. In less time than it takes to turn around, his peace of mind was shattered when the plate-glass window of the shop exploded inwards as a tornado struck the town. Killing 17 people and damaging more than R90 million worth of property, this single extreme weather event came close to claiming an even greater cost – the elderly gentleman who had no warning of the tornado, was also the President of South Africa – Nelson Mandela. Clearly weather itself does not discriminate. It affects all people with seemingly equal randomness, and apparent disregard for nationality, stature or status - but the reality is that natural disasters make the greatest impact on those nations least able to afford the damage.

According to the World Bank more than 95% of disaster-related deaths occur in developing countries, and as we celebrate today the first anniversary of the coming into force of the Kyoto Protocol, we all know that it is Africa – your RA1 region - that stands amongst the most vulnerable to the effects of climate change. It is my great privilege therefore to formally welcome you all to Cape Town, to South Africa, and for the first time in the history of the Commission for Atmospheric Sciences (CAS), to the African continent. On behalf of the people of our country, I would like to thank you for choosing this place – also known as the Cape of Storms – for this event.

Recent South African Weather Service Achievements

Chairperson, although South Africa was only readmitted to the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) in 1994, making us one of the ‘younger’ member states, we have already built a proud track record of regional and international collaboration. From active service in the committees of the CAS, to the work done on the WMO’s African Joint Procurement Project, and to radar collaboration work in Botswana and Mozambique, further linking our regional radar networks within the Southern African Development Community (SADC).

In the context of the New Partnership for Africa’s Development (NEPAD) we are determined to work with our regional neighbours to improve the accuracy of our weather data, forecasts, and analysis. This is of particular importance in improving regional responses to extreme weather events – like the severe flooding in Mozambique in 2000, which saw the South African National Defence Force assisting the rescue missions in partnership with Mozambican authorities. Better radar integration and more effective regional weather forecasting will allow more timeous warnings, more appropriate preparations, and more rapid disaster management in Southern Africa.

I would like to take a brief moment to acknowledge and pay tribute to some of the more recent achievements of our South African Weather Service, under the leadership of the Chairperson of the Board, Sizeka Rensburg, and her team. These include the national lightning detection network that has now been established – which will allow us to detect lightning, conduct research and issue timeous warnings to both the public and commercial clients; the acquisition of a new and faster supercomputer for weather modelling and more accurate forecasting; and the replacement of 13 manual weather stations with semi-automatic ones since early 2005 – including five such stations in the poorly observed, vulnerable rural areas of the Eastern Cape to help avoid situations such as the one in which our former President found himself in 1998.

It is also my pleasure to ask that you join me in recognising a truly prestigious award that has been earned by our South African Weather Service and our Water Research Commission – the Excellence Award from the United Arab Emirates for work done in advancing the science and practice of weather modification. The South African research effort into rainfall enhancement started in 1971 and has made a unique contribution to this field through the development of hygroscopic seeding technology. I believe that the formal award will be made later in the conference, but would ask that you join me now in congratulating our team on this significant achievement.

New Air Quality Responsibility for SAWS and New SA Capacity

Chairperson, one of the most pressing environmental health challenges facing both the developed and developing world is the issue of air quality. Unacceptable concentrations of cancer-causing pollutants have been measured in and around our own industrial centres. Every winter our people cough and choke from breathing a vile cocktail of airborne pollution that remains trapped under temperature inversion layers. Every year South Africa spends more than R4 billion on respiratory health problems related to air pollution.

We have acted to make a change – our new Air Quality Act, passed by Parliament in 2004, provides for the setting of standards – both for the quality of air that we breathe, and for what may be released into that air. We will also be announcing for public comment, before the end of March, the first set of ambient air quality standards for South Africa and the first “controlled emitter” in terms of our new law.

To provide the backbone of our new Air Quality management, South Africa is also developing an Air Quality Information System to provide us with accurate, current, relevant and complete information for informed air quality decision-making. I am pleased to announce that we have taken an in-principle decision to locate this function within our South African Weather Service as the institution best placed to assume this key new environmental monitoring role, and are conducting a feasibility study to determine the modalities that this will entail.

A New Era for Combating Global Climate Change

Chairperson, it has been said that “Climate is what we expect…weather is what we get.” With the fundamental changes that human-induced climate change is bringing to our world however, that distinction may soon become less humorous, as our expectations become less and less optimistic.

2006 is the International Year of Deserts and Desertification. In the words of the UN Secretary-General, Kofi Annan, this “is one of the world’s most alarming processes of environmental degradation”, affecting one third of the earth’s surface, more than 4 billion hectares, and over a billion people. Moreover, it has potentially devastating social and economic costs. Like other water-scarce, agriculturally-dependent, developing countries, South Africa is exceptionally vulnerable to these changes, and this is why our Government has placed the national response to climate change at the forefront of our governance priorities.

It is my hope that, as CAS participants, many here today will have the opportunity to visit our spectacular Cape Point Nature Reserve and the Cape Point Global Atmosphere Watch Station. As one of only 24 WMO global stations, it has collected ample evidence of the challenges of climate change. Ambient background concentrations of Carbon Dioxide measured at the Cape Point laboratory have recently reached the level of 370 parts per million. This amounts to an increase of about 5.4% during the past ten years alone.

As we celebrate the first anniversary of the coming into force of the Kyoto Protocol, I think we should also be celebrating a new era in combating global climate change. With the operationalisation of the Kyoto Protocol following the Montreal meetings last December, Kyoto has become the only multi-lateral environmental agreement with legally binding consequences for those parties who do not comply. Kyoto alone however is not enough, and with the first commitment period ending in 2012 work must start now on two tracks – the first, on deeper emission cuts by developed countries under Kyoto; and the second, broadening and strengthening long-term cooperative action to address climate change and enhancing implementation of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change and its instruments.

As a developing country we believe in the importance of a future framework for action on climate change that is marked by a balance between adaptation and mitigation. It is also our view that existing commitments under the Convention should be given further content in support of sustainable development imperatives, as well as emission reductions. We are very aware of the need to deal with the unintended consequences of climate change mitigation measures taken by developed countries on the economies of some developing countries. This will require concerted international support for the diversification of the economies of those countries affected, to ensure that climate change action is aligned with sustainable development objectives.

Conclusion

Chairperson, to find patterns in what would otherwise be chaos; to predict, with increasing accuracy, the behaviour of nature itself - these are the Herculean tasks which fall to the members of the WMO and its associated commissions and institutions. Oscar Wilde once wrote that “Conversation about the weather is the last refuge of the unimaginative”, yet for the next eight days this 14th Session of the CAS will occupy some of the most creative and skilled scientific minds from around the world.

It is work that is critical, not only to the developed and industrialised nations, but increasingly to developing countries as well. To have truly global value, meteorology must make a real difference to the everyday lives of people across the globe. It is not enough to only invest in monitoring and research capacity – on climate change for instance – what is more important is to project these climate change impacts for different sectors and support the development of robust climate change adaptation strategies. The challenge is, for example, to integrate forecast changes into local development planning, to inform wise infrastructure investments, or to support research on the impacts of changed weather patterns on specific crops, allowing farmers to switch to more suitable or more resilient varieties. Although much progress has been made internationally in this regard, this applied science has not significantly penetrated Africa and other developing nations, in particular the small island states and the least developed countries of the world. This then is our shared challenge.

I wish you every success in the remainder of your deliberations, as well as a truly enjoyable experience of our South African hospitality – which is as much about the warmth of our people as it is about our weather.