21/02/2006 - New research
released by the Environment Agency today
shows that the decisions of this generation
will leave a legacy of increasing climate
change over the next millennium unless there
is a major reduction in emissions. With
temperatures increasing by up to 15°C
and seas rising by up to 11.4 metres, low-lying
areas of the UK would be threatened with
flooding and the UK’s climate could resemble
that of today’s tropics by the year 3000.
Climate Change on the Millennial Timescale,
by the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change
Research and Environment Agency, is the
first study to comprehensively examine impacts
beyond the end of this century.
The report implies that the UK will need
to make major emissions reductions over
the next couple of decades as part of a
global effort to prevent abrupt climate
changes.
Environment Agency Chief Executive, Barbara
Young, said the new research showed that
the next 25 years were crucial in making
tough decisions on reducing the impacts
of climate change.
"We are running out of road on decision
making - unless we dramatically change the
use of fossil fuels then we will be committing
future generations to the most severe impacts
of climate change," she said.
The new study projects climate change over
the next millennium, examining the impacts
across the centuries.
Increasing carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions
lead in one model to an abrupt climate change
where sea temperatures plunge by 3°C
as a result of the collapse of warm sea
currents. A second abrupt change occurs
with the rapid disappearance of the Arctic
sea ice. This warms Arctic seas by up to
8°C and land temperatures at UK latitudes
by up to 5°C in the space of a couple
of decades.
The report says that by the year 3000:
• Global and regional warming could more
than quadruple after 2100: Temperatures
could rise from1.5°C if emissions are
minimised to as much as 15°C if we continue
burning fossil fuels - more than four times
the predictions for the year 2100. The EU
says that "global annual mean surface
temperature increase should not exceed 2°C
above pre-industrial levels";
• Sea levels will still be rising at the
end of this millennium and could reach 11.4m
by year 3000: This would mean that without
action low-lying areas of the UK, including
London, would be threatened by sea level
rise. This figure compares with the Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) global average
sea level change of 0.16 to 0.69m by the
2080s. The definition of "dangerous"
climate change adopted in the study is a
global sea level rise of 2m – which will
flood large areas of Bangladesh, Florida
and many low lying cities, and displace
hundreds of millions of people;
• Abrupt climate change events could occur:
Business-as-usual emissions could lead to
the collapse of currents in the Atlantic,
causing North Atlantic sea temperatures
to fall by 3°C, affecting agriculture
and marine life particularly at the latitude
of the UK. If emissions continue, Arctic
sea ice could completely disappear all year
round, causing North Atlantic seas, previously
cooled to heat up to 8°C accompanied
by UK land temperature increases of up to
5°C within 20 years;
• These abrupt climate changes can happen
long after emissions cease: Abrupt changes
may be triggered many decades before they
actually occur. Even after emissions have
completely ceased there is still a legacy
from decades past - a "sleeping giant"
in the climate system;
• Ocean pH will fall dramatically: Ocean
pH is predicted to fall dramatically posing
a threat to marine organisms, such as corals
and plankton. Such fundamental changes to
plankton would have large implications for
the rest of the marine ecosystem;
• Potential climate changes could be much
greater, and avoidance of dangerous climate
change even harder, than currently projected:
Climate changes could be even greater if
the climate system turns out to be more
sensitive to the level of greenhouse gas
emissions than the conservative assumptions
made in this study. Only by minimising emissions,
which means reducing them to zero in 2200
– can dangerous climate change be avoided.
"We now know from this report that
we are walking off a shorter plank than
we previously thought - the research shows
far more dangerous and dramatic climate
change effects appearing much earlier than
previously predicted – tough decisions are
needed soon," Barbara Young said.
"Many of our coastal towns could be
in jeopardy – immediate action needs to
be taken if we are to avoid many of these
impacts. We need to get tough on energy
efficiency. This means much tighter standards
for buildings and Government providing proper
incentives for businesses and householders
to invest in reducing their emissions. We
must also tackle rising emissions from the
transport sector if we are to meet our 2010
target of 20% CO2 reduction and tackle more
strenuous targets for 2020," she said.
Lead author, Dr Tim Lenton, Tyndall Centre
and University of East Anglia, said: "We
present a sobering picture of potential
climate change on the millennial timescale.
Whilst most studies stop at year 2100 with
temperatures and sea level rising we explored
where they are heading into the next millennium.
"Only by starting to reduce CO2 emissions
now, and continuing to reduce them can we
avoid dangerous climate changes on the millennial
time-scale, including the gradual melt of
the Greenland ice sheet" he said.
The report takes into account a wide range
of possible amounts of future emissions
of carbon dioxide - principally greenhouse
gas emitted by the burning of fossil fuels,
it looks at three scenarios:
• what happens if emissions are "minimised"
– which means they are reduced steadily
to zero between 2020 and 2200 (implying
humans burn a further 1130 giga tonnes of
carbon, GtC, by 3000);
• what happens if its "business as
usual" with humans burning all of the
remaining 4000 GtC of conventional fossil
fuel reserves by the year 3000; and
• what happens in the worse case scenario
- if humans burn 15000 GtC by 3000 by accessing
unconventional fuels such as oil shales
and methane hydrates.
The only scenario that avoids dangerous
climate change over the long term is the
minimum emissions scenario, which allows
for about one quarter of known fossil fuels
to be used (about 1,000 GtC out of 4-5,000
GtC). This scenario allows for a small increase
in global emissions by 2025 with a steady
linear phase out by 2200. Because we have
high emissions per capita, the implication
for the UK would be a need for deep cuts
in emissions from now on. At present emissions
are rising again in the UK.
"If we follow business-as-usual then
we will commit future generations to dangerous
climate change, and if we exploit unconventional
fossil fuels we could return the Earth to
a hot state it hasn't seen since 55 million
years ago," Dr Lenton said.
The Environment Agency called for immediate
action from Government and industry, including:
New measures to meet the 2010 20% CO2 reduction
target
The revised Climate Change Programme due
out in March needs to include new measures
to put us back on track to meet the 2010
20% CO2 reduction target. Central to this
will be a much tighter cap for phase II
of the EU Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS)
and new measures to curb transport emissions
such as stronger fiscal measures to promote
the uptake of cleaner vehicles and to encourage
behaviour change. We support the government’s
plan to bring the aviation sector into the
next phase of the EU ETS. The decisions
on the level of the cap for this second
phase and the other measures contained in
this programme will be a key test of Government's
commitment to meeting this target;
Business Incentives
The Energy Review is an opportunity to put
us back on the path to achieving emission
reductions over the longer term. The review
should put in place a long term, technology
neutral mechanism to incentivise businesses
to invest in reducing carbon emissions through
measures like energy efficiency and renewable
energy. Apart from the Renewables Obligation,
there are no long-term mechanisms in place
to incentivise investment in low carbon
technologies (both Kyoto and the EU ETS
only extend out as far as 2012).Energy-using
businesses and the energy supply sector
need reliable signals that investments in
low carbon technologies will have a value
over a longer period than is currently the
case.
Businesses and individuals need to plan
how they would deal with the inevitable
impacts of climate changes – such as flooding
or drought.
Businesses and individuals must make themselves
aware of any climate change impacts that
could affect them and prepare a plan of
action on how they would respond in order
to minimise economic and health impacts.
Government has an important role in championing
action in this area and we support their
plan to develop a central framework for
how the UK adapts to climate change.
