Nairobi,
5 November 2006 –Assisting developing countries
to adapt to the impacts of global warming, especially
those in Africa must be a key focus of the latest
round of climate change talks which open tomorrow
in Nairobi.
A new report on impacts, vulnerability
and adaptation in Africa, released by the Secretariat
of the United Nations Framework Convention on
Climate Change (UNFCCC) and based on data from
bodies including the UN Environment Programme
(UNEP) and the World Meteorological Organization
(WMO) indicates that the continent’s vulnerability
to climate change is even more acute than had
previously been supposed.
It is estimated, for example,
that 30 per cent of Africa’s coastal infrastructure
could be inundated including coastal settlements
in the Gulf of Guinea, Senegal, the Gambia and
Egypt.
Between 25 per cent and over
40 per cent of species’ habitats in Africa could
be lost by 2085.
Cereal crop yields will decline
by up to five per cent by the 2080s with subsistence
crops—like sorghum in Sudan, Ethiopia, Eritrea
and Zambia; maize in Ghana, millet in Sudan and
groundnuts in the Gambia—also suffering climate-linked
falls.
Meanwhile part of Africa’s current
and future adaptation needs must include improvements
in climate and weather monitoring capabilities
and better links between climate research and
policy-making.
Other needs include mainstreaming
climate change considerations into development
and sectoral plans and programmes, education and
awareness-raising for governments, institutions
and individuals as well as better forecasting
and early warning systems, says the report.
Achim Steiner, United Nations
Under-Secretary General and Executive Director
of the UN Environment Programme (UNEP), said:
“Climate change is underway and the international
community must respond by offering well targeted
assistance to those countries in the front-line
which are facing increasing impacts such as extreme
droughts and floods and threats to infrastructure
from phenomena like rising sea levels”
“Part of the action, part of
the adaptation response and part of this responsibility
to Africa, must include significant improvements
in Africa’s climate and weather monitoring capabilities.
Then countries on the Continent can better tailor
their response in areas from agriculture to heath
care and international donors can better understand
Africa’s needs now, and in the future,” said Mr
Steiner.
Michel Jarraud, Secretary-General of the World
Meteorological Organisation (WMO) said: ”Africa
is the largest of all tropical landmasses and,
at 30 million square km, is about a fifth of the
world’s total land area. Yet the climate observing
system in Africa is in a far worse and deteriorating
state than that of any other Continent”.
Latest estimates indicate that
about 25 per cent out of the Global Climate Observing
System surface stations in east and southern Africa
are not working and most of the remaining stations
are functioning in a less than desirable manner.
Around a fifth of the 10 upper air network stations
are in a similar state.
“Meanwhile there are also major
impacts in highly elevated areas like Mount Kenya
and Mount Kilimanjaro whose glaciers, ice caps
and run off are important for water supplies.
Overall it is estimated that Africa needs 200
automatic weather stations, a major effort to
rescue historical data and improved training and
capacity building on climate and weather reporting,”
he said.
With a view to the climate change
conference in Nairobi, Yvo de Boer, Executive
Secretary of the UNFCCC, said: “Activating the
adaptation agenda is critical. It is time to move
from establishing the principles to real action
on the ground. It will also be important to do
further work to better understand how adaptation
relates to efforts aimed at poverty eradication,
particularly in the context of the achievement
of the Millennium Development Goals.”
Fighting climate change must
be a two-tier attack. Adaptation is important--
but it is also critical that greenhouse gas emissions
are cut by an eventual 80 per cent in order to
stabilize the atmosphere for current and future
generations.
The new report has been prepared
with the help of a team led by Dr. Baglis Osman
Elasha, Senior Researcher in the Climate Change
Unit of the Higher Council for Environment and
Natural Resources in the Sudanese Ministry of
the Environment.
“We are already seeing climate
related changes in my country. The Gum Arabic
belt, an economically important crop, has shifted
southwards below latitude 14 degrees north and
the rains which used to occur from mid June to
the end of August now start in mid July until
the end of September with important ramifications
for agriculture and livelihoods,” she said.
The report was designed to inform
participants at the African regional workshop
on adaptation, which was held from September 21
to 23, 2006 in Accra, Ghana.
At the workshop, 33 African
country Parties exchanged information on observing
climatic changes and assessing their impacts and
countries’ vulnerability to these changes. Countries
also shared their experiences in planning and
implementing concrete adaptation measures in the
areas of agriculture and food security, water
resources, health and coastal zones.
The Ghana workshop followed
a first workshop in the series of regional workshops
in Peru in April this year, which was held for
the Latin American region. Workshops for small
island developing States and Asian countries will
be organized next year. The results of these workshops
will feed into the negotiations at COP 13 on what
future action is necessary to advance adaptation
in developing countries.
Key Findings from the Report
Sea Levels
Sea levels could rise by 15
to 95 cm by 2100, according to some estimates.
The number of people at risk in Africa from coastal
flooding will rise from one million in 11000 to
70 million by 2080.
An estimated 30 per cent of
Africa’s coastal infrastructure could be at risk
including coastal settlements in the Gulf of Guinea,
Senegal, the Gambia, and Egypt.
Along the East-Southern African
coast cities at risk include Cape Town, Maputo
and Dar Es-Salaam.
A one metre rise in the Atlantic
will lead to part of the economic capital of Lagos,
Nigeria, disappearing. Alexandria in Egypt could
also be severely impacted costing that country
over $30 billion a year in lost land, infrastructure
and tourist revenues.
A sea level rise of 50 cm would
inundate 2,000 square km of land in Tanzania costing
around $50 million.
Biodiversity and Ecosystems
Habitats and ecosystems in Africa
are currently under threat from a variety of impacts
and climate change is likely to be an additional
stress.
One study, examining over 5,000
plant species in Africa, has concluded that around
80 to well over 90 per cent of species’ suitable
habitats will decrease in size or shift due to
climate change.
By 2085, between 25 per cent
and over 40 per cent of species’ habitats could
be lost altogether.
Shifts in rainfall patterns
could affect the fynbos and karoo in southern
Africa by altering the fire regime critical for
their regeneration.
Mountain biodiversity could
be affected in east Africa where there is little
opportunity to move to higher elevations.
Wetland ecosystems such as the
Okavanga Delta and the Sudd area could be impacted
by decreased run off.
The coastal zones are also likely
to be impacted by climate change with reduced
fish productivity, coral bleaching, salt water
intrusion, loss of beach facilities and tourism
revenues.
Agriculture, Water Supplies
and Land
Many of Africa’s regions are
coming to be recognised as having climates that
are the most variable in the world on intra-seasonal
and decadal timescales.
Just over 50 per cent of Africa’s 812 million
people have access to safe drinking water. Three
quarters of the population utilize groundwater
supplies to a greater or lesser extent.
Around half of Africa’s cultivable
land is arid and semi arid. About 65 per cent
of the croplands and 30 per cent of pastureland
is affected by degradation with resultant declines
in crop yields and food insecurity.
Just under 15 per cent of degraded
soils are as a result of vegetation removal including
forests; 13 per cent from over-exploitation, almost
half from overgrazing and around a quarter from
agricultural activities.
Africa accounts for nearly 30
per cent of land degradation globally with 500
million hectares moderately to severely degraded.
Some recent calculations indicate
that, between 1850 and the late 11000s, soils
in Africa may have emitted 136 gigatonnes of carbon
to the atmosphere—equal to half of the emissions
linked with fossil fuel combustion—with one third
of these soil emissions due to land degradation
and soil erosion.
70 per cent of people in Africa
and nearly 90 per cent of the poor primarily work
in agriculture.
Agriculture accounts for 20
to 30 per cent of the GDP in sub-Saharan Africa
and represents 55 per cent of total African exports.
Over 95 per cent of Africa’s
agriculture depends on rainfall. Models indicate
that 80,000 square km of agricultural land in
sub-Saharan Africa currently deemed constrained
will improve as a result of climate change.
However, 600,000 square km currently
classed as moderately constrained will become
severely limited.
Experts estimate that cereal
crop yields will decline by up to five per cent
by the 2080s. There will be a general decline
also in most subsistence crops such as sorghum
in Sudan, Ethiopia, Eritrea and Zambia; maize
in Ghana, millet in Sudan and groundnuts in the
Gambia.
Africa has warmed by 0.7 degrees
C during the 20th century with very high temperature
records occurring towards the end of the century.
1995 and 1998 were the two warmest years.
An average 25 per cent decrease
in rainfall has occurred over the Sahel during
the past 30 years. Precipitation has fallen by
up to 2.4 per cent per decade in tropical rainforests
regions of Africa since the mid-1970s. The rate
of decline has been fastest in West Africa and
north Congo. (which Congo)
Droughts have particularly affected
the Sahel, the Horn of Africa and Southern Africa
since the end of the 1960s.
“Also, consecutive dry years
with widespread disruption are reducing the ability
of the society to cope with droughts by providing
less recovery and preparation time between events,”
says the report.
Scientists forecast that by 2100 mean surface
temperatures in Africa could increase by two to
six degrees C.
Future Rainfall
Future rainfall patterns are
not clear cut but it is likely that over the next
50 years there will be a decrease in rainfall
of 10 to 25 per cent over northern parts of Africa
in the months of June, July and August and a 10
to 60 per cent decline in March, April and May.
In contrast, western Africa
may see an increase in rainfall of 10 to 35 per
cent in the December, January and February period
which is normally a dry time with an increase
also during September, October and November of
between seven and 28 per cent.
By 2025 approximately 480 million
people in Africa could be living in water scarce
or water stressed areas.
Within the Nile Basin, there
is an expectation that temperatures will rise
but there are currently disparities on rainfall
patterns over both the Blue and White Niles. However,
nine recent climate scenarios show decrease in
Nile flows of between zero and around 40 per cent.
Overall experts expect extreme
events including droughts and floods to increase.
Weather and Climate Monitoring Gaps
Even Africa’s conventional weather
forecasting stations, also import for climate
modelling and adaptation strategies, are thin
on the ground.
There are just over 1,150 World
Weather Watch stations in Africa giving a density
of one per 26,000 square km—eight times lower
than the World Meteorological Organisation’s minimum
recommended level.
Meanwhile little of Africa’s
historical climate and weather data is being used
to further refine climate forecasting and assist
in better adaptation and coping strategies.
This is because much of the
historical information remains paper-based and
is inaccessible to scientists who need digital
information to feed super computer models.
Other areas of concern include
a lack of good monitoring of the El Nino Southern
Oscillation as it relates to Africa; the onset
of the Sahel precipitation and the interaction
of Saharan dust with climate.
Up to one billion tonnes of
dust is exported from the Sahel-Sahara region
annually crossing north Africa and travelling
as far as Europe, western Asia and the Americas.
The frequency of dust storms
has increased in some parts of the Sahel from
the wet 1950s-1960s to the dry periods of the
1970s-1980s.
Some efforts are being made
to improve climate forecasting in Africa. For
example an initiative backed by the Government
of the United Kingdom and its Hadley Centre is
bringing a personal computer-based model to local
meteorological offices and research stations in
southern Africa as well as the Indian sub-continent.
Notes to Editors
For the full report, please
see: full report
Details of the second meeting
of the Parties to the Kyoto Protocol (COP/MOP
2), in conjunction with the twelfth session of
the Conference of the Parties to the Climate Change
Convention (COP 12), taking place in Nairobi from
6 to 17 November 2006, can be found at www.unfccc.int
UNEP climate change resources
are at http://www.unep.org/themes/climatechange/
WMO climate change resources are at The Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change: www.ipcc.ch
The World Climate Programme: www.wmo.ch/web/wcp/wcp-home.html
The World Climate Research Programme: www.wmo.ch/web/wcrp/
Nick Nuttall, UNEP Spokesperson,
Office of the Executive Director
John Hay, UNFCCC Secretariat Spokesperson
Carine Richard-Van Maele, Chief, Communications
and Public Affairs, WMO.
