02 February 2007 - Media Statement - Note to editors: - The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was established by the World Meteorological Organisation and UNEP to assess scientific, technical and socio- economic information relevant for the understanding of climate change, its potential impacts and options for adaptation and mitigation. It is currently finalising its Fourth Assessment Report "Climate Change 2007". The release on Friday 2 February 2007 of the Summary for Policy Makers on "The Physical Science Basis of Climate Change" makes public the first of three technical reports and a comprehensive Synthesis Report to be published this year. The scientific evidence summarised in the report includes peer reviewed published research over the past six years, synthesised and reviewed by some 2500 scientists in 130 countries.

Department of Environmental Affairs and Tourism

FRIDAY, 02 FEBRUARY 2007: The release of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 4th Assessment: Summary for Policymakers report on the physical science of climate change is a clarion call to those world leaders that are still hesitant to deal pro-actively with the problem and its root causes. The compelling scientific evidence of climate change presented in this report stresses the need for all world leaders to acknowledge publicly that climate change is rapidly becoming a global emergency requiring serious and immediate action.

The IPCC report clearly outlines the unequivocal link between human activity and identified global climate change. Based on vastly improved data, analyses, modelling and understanding of climate change developed over the past six years, the report indicates that global temperatures and sea levels will continue to rise, and unless urgent action is taken, could rise dramatically by the end of the 21st Century. The clock is thus ticking and time is running out for us to avoid major climate change with its attendant real and serious threats to our economies and people’s livelihoods, health, food security, and damage to our ecosystems.

The IPCC report presents convincing evidence from around the world that cumulative greenhouse emissions since the industrial revolution have caused and continues to cause global climate change, and will continue to do so for many decades to come. This will lead to further global temperature increases, sea level rises, ocean acidification, the melting of glaciers, extreme weather phenomena and disruptive changes in regional rainfall and weather patterns.

The observed and projected climate changes and attendant risks are now much more clearly understood, and the human causes for most of the historical change are now beyond doubt. The impact of burning fossil fuels on global warming can no longer be disregarded. It is clear now that, in the space of a mere 150 years, humankind has elevated global greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere to levels unprecedented in the last 650 000 years. The fact that 11 of the 12 warmest years recorded since the industrial revolution has been measured during the past 12 years further shows clearly that there is no slow-down in the rate of warming - in fact, the warming is faster than projected by the IPCC’s previous report in 2001.

The really alarming findings of the world’s leading climate scientists participating in the IPCC are contained in their projections for the future.

• Under a “best case type scenario” of emissions, by 2099, the global temperature would increase by a best estimate of 1.8oC (although this could be as low as 1.1oC) and the sea level would rise by as much as 0.38 meters. (In this scenario no initiatives to address climate change are implemented; the world population peaks in mid-century; economies shift to be predominantly service and information based and clean and resource efficient technologies are introduced.)
• Under an emissions scenario more like “business-as-usual”, by 2099, the global temperature would increase by a best estimate of 4oC (however, this could be as high as 6.4oC) and the sea level would rise by as much as 0.59 meters. (In this scenario no initiatives to address climate change are implemented; the world population also peaks in mid-century; economies grow rapidly; and the world adopts new and more efficient technologies, but which are still fossil fuel intensive.)

This best estimate range of a global temperature increase by 2099 of between 1.8oC and 4oC in the absence of any climate action, with all the attendant changes in weather patterns, clearly underlines the need for the international community to take urgent steps to address global climate change.

Given this compelling scientific case, the lack of political will to act on the grounds of scientific uncertainty has now become indefensible, rather than merely ill-advised. We are now beyond a critical turning point in the debate: those who continue to ignore the threat and its causes, or invoke half-baked arguments to confuse and obstruct, will be doing the greatest disservice imaginable to current and future generations.

If countries of the world fail to curb emissions of harmful greenhouse gasses, there is virtually no doubt that global climate change will intensify, and that the impact on sustainable development and the livelihoods of people across the world will be severe. This is likely the single largest long term threat the world has to deal with.

In particular, the new IPCC report is a wake-up call to the world’s largest emitter, the United States. We applaud the unilateral climate actions taken by the State of California and others and strongly encourage the federal government of the USA to hear the growing groundswell of opinion in that country, and act on their moral obligation to join the global effort under the Kyoto Protocol and future negotiations to combat climate change.

But this report is not just a wake-up call to the USA. It reminds us that we all have to do more to fundamentally change the way we operate and to confront the severe challenges facing us over the next few decades. Though all countries have a common responsibility to address climate change, we do have differentiated responsibilities where the developed countries who are the major cause of the problem must take the lead in addressing it. Nevertheless, we all - developed as well as developing - have to act in accordance with our national capabilities.

The IPCC’s report also underlines the fact that long timescales are required for removal of man-made carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. It is the accumulation of past emissions that are contributing to global warming and sea level rise. This observation supports the longstanding insistence by developing countries that responsibility for historical emissions (whose effects will continue for decades to come) is the moral basis for developed countries’ obligation to take the lead in reducing emissions and in assisting vulnerable countries to adapt to the devastating impacts of climate change.

The South African government has long been attuned to the forewarnings provided by balanced science. We note that South African scientists have played a leading role in all of the IPCC writing and review phases.

It now remains for us to enhance and co-ordinate our own science research activities and policy responses in the best way possible. In the best interests of our people this will enable us to adapt as the climate changes, and to avoid the worst consequences of future change. We will scrutinise the implications of this report closely, and especially its chapter on the regional implications of global climate change, and we look forward to the next three IPCC reports: on Impacts and Adaptation; on Mitigation and the Synthesis Report which are due for release later this year.