Paris, 2 February 2007 – The first major global assessment of climate change science in six years has concluded that changes in the atmosphere, the oceans and glaciers and ice caps show unequivocally that the world is warming.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) concludes that major advances in climate modelling and the collection and analysis of data now give scientists “very high confidence” (at least a 9 out of 10 chance of being correct) in their understanding of how human activities are causing the world to warm. This level of confidence is much greater than what could be achieved in 2001 when the IPCC issued its last major report.

Today’s report, the first of four volumes to be released this year by the IPCC, also confirms that the marked increase in atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) since 10000 is the result of human activities.

An even greater degree of warming would likely have occurred if emissions of pollution particles and other aerosols had not offset some of the impact of greenhouse gases, mainly by reflecting sunlight back out to space.

Three years in the making, the report is based on a thorough review of the most-up-to-date, peer-reviewed scientific literature available worldwide. It describes an accelerating transition to a warmer world marked by more extreme temperatures including heat waves, new wind patterns, worsening drought in some regions, heavier precipitation in others, melting glaciers and Arctic ice and rising global average sea levels. For the first time, the report provides evidence that the ice sheets of Antarctica and Greenland are slowly losing mass and contributing to sea level rise.

“This report by the IPCC represents the most rigorous and comprehensive assessment possible of the current state of climate science and has considerably narrowed the uncertainties of the 2001 report,” said Michel Jarraud, Secretary General of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). “Progress in observations and measurements of the weather and climate are keys to improved climate research, with National Meteorological and Hydrological Services playing a crucial role.”

“While the conclusions are disturbing, decision makers are now armed with the latest facts and will be better able to respond to these realities. The speed with which melting ice sheets are raising sea levels is uncertain, but the report makes clear that sea levels will rise inexorably over the coming centuries. It is a question of when and how much, and not if,” he said.

“In our daily lives we all respond urgently to dangers that are much less likely than climate change to affect the future of our children,” said Achim Steiner, Executive Director of the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), which, together with WMO, established the IPCC in 1988.

“The implications of global warming over the coming decades for our industrial economy, water supplies, agriculture, biological diversity and even geopolitics are massive. Momentum for action is building; this new report should spur policymakers to get off the fence and put strong and effective policies in place to tackle greenhouse gas emissions,” he said.

The report also concludes that:

• If atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases double compared to pre-industrial levels, this would “likely” cause an average warming of around 3°C (5.4°F), with a range of 2 - 4.5°C (3.6 - 8.1°F). For the first time, the IPCC is providing best estimates for the warming projected to result from particular increases in greenhouse gases that could occur after the 21st century, along with uncertainty ranges based on more comprehensive modelling.

• A GHG level of 650 ppm would “likely” warm the global climate by around 3.6°C, while 1000 ppm would lead to a 4.3°C warming, 1,000 ppm to 5.5°C and 1,200 ppm to 6.3°C. Future GHG concentrations are difficult to predict and will depend on economic growth, new technologies and policies and other factors.

• The world’s average surface temperature has increased by around 0.74°C over the past 100 years (1906 - 2005). This figure is higher than the 2001 report’s 100-year estimate of 0.6°C due to the recent series of extremely warm years, with 11 of the last 12 years ranking among the 12 warmest years since modern records began around 1850. A warming of about 0.2°C is projected for each of the next two decades.

• The best estimates for sea-level rise due to ocean expansion and glacier melt by the end of the century (compared to 1989 – 1999 levels) have narrowed to 28 - 58 cm, versus 9 - 88 cm in the 2001 report, due to improved understanding. However, larger values of up to 1 m by 2100 cannot be ruled out if ice sheets continue to melt as temperature rises. The last time the polar regions were significantly warmer than at present for an extended period (about 125,000 years ago), reductions in polar ice volume caused the sea level to rise by 4 to 6 m.

• Sea ice is projected to shrink in both the Arctic and Antarctic regions. Large areas of the Arctic Ocean could lose year-round ice cover by the end of the 21st century if human emissions reach the higher end of current estimates. The extent of Arctic sea ice has already shrunk by about 2.7% per decade since 1978, with the summer minimum declining by about 7.4% per decade.

• Snow cover has decreased in most regions, especially in spring. The maximum extent of frozen ground in the winter/spring season decreased by about 7% in the Northern Hemisphere over the latter half of the 20th century. The average freezing date for rivers and lakes in the Northern Hemisphere over the past 150 years has arrived later by some 5.8 days per century, while the average break-up date has arrived earlier by 6.5 days per century.

• It is “very likely” that precipitation will increase at high latitudes and “likely” it will decrease over most subtropical land regions. The pattern of these changes is similar to what has been observed during the 20th century.

• It is “very likely” that the upward trend in hot extremes and heat waves will continue. The duration and intensity of drought has increased over wider areas since the 1970s, particularly in the tropics and subtropics. The Sahel, the Mediterranean, southern Africa and parts of southern Asia have already become drier during the 20th century.

• The amounts of carbon dioxide and methane now in the atmosphere far exceed pre-industrial values going back 650,000 years. As stated above, concentrations of carbon dioxide have already risen from a pre-industrial level of 280 ppm to around 379 ppm in 2005, while methane concentrations have risen from 715 parts per billion (ppb) to 1,774 in 2005.

• A number of widely discussed uncertainties have been resolved. The temperature record of the lower atmosphere from satellite measurements has been reconciled with the ground-based record. Key remaining uncertainties involve the roles played by clouds, the cryosphere (glaciers and ice caps), oceans, deforestation and other land-use change, and the linking of climate and biogeochemical cycles.

The IPCC does not conduct new research. Instead, its mandate is to make policy-relevant assessments of the existing worldwide literature on the scientific, technical and socio-economic aspects of climate change. Its reports have played a major role in inspiring governments to adopt and implement the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and the Kyoto Protocol.

The Summary for Policymakers for IPCC Working Group I, which was finalized line-by-line by governments during the course of this week, has now been posted in English at www.ipcc.ch. The full underlying report – “Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis” – will be published by Cambridge University Press.

The report was produced by some 600 authors from 40 countries. Over 620 expert reviewers and a large number of government reviewers also participated. Representatives from 113 governments reviewed and revised the Summary line-by-line during the course of this week before adopting it and accepting the underlying report.

The Working Group II report on climate impacts and adaptation will be launched in Brussels on 6 April. The Working Group III report on mitigation will be launched in Bangkok on 4 May. The Synthesis Report will be adopted in Valencia, Spain on 16 November. Together, the four volumes will make up the IPCC’s fourth assessment report; previous reports were published in 11000, 1995 and 2001.

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UNEP Global Civil Society Forum Kicks off in Nairobi

More than 160 participants from 65 countries are taking part in the 8th Global Civil Society Forum (GCSF) from 3 to 4 February.

The Forum is a prelude to the 24th UNEP Governing Council / Global Ministerial Environment Forum (GC / GMEF). This year’s programme of work, developed in collaboration with the newly established Global Steering Committee, aims at increasing impact and interaction with the GC / GMEF.

The Forum is the main entry point for civil society participation at the governance level in the GCSF cycle. It is built around six regional consultation meetings. 270 representatives from 94 countries have been involved through previous months in discussions on policy issues related to water, chemicals management, gender and the environment and globalization, ecosystem services and human-well-being at the regional level. This process produced the Global Civil Society Statement to the Governing Council/Global Ministerial Environment Forum at its twenty-fourth session (UNEP/GC/24/INF/).

A dialogue session between the Forum and the Executive Director of UNEP will take place on Saturday 3 of February to exchange ideas and perspectives on the main themes dominating the GC agenda this year and elements of the Global Civil Society Statement to the GC.

During the course of the Forum, UNEP will present new modalities to improve the engagement of major groups, in the long term. Modalities for discussion include: improved and continuous engagement at governance level, new forms of consultations including issue-based consultations, communication and feedback to the constituencies, linking engagement at governance, and programmatic and regional levels.

Participating in the Forum will be E. Neuhaus, Executive Manager of the Brazilian Forum of NGOs and Social Movements for Sustainable Development (FBMOS), and T. Hammond, Senior Program Advisor from IUCN, The World Conservation Union, who will present the position of the Global Civil Society Committee representing the 6 UNEP regions. The Forum and panelists from various major groups will then be invited to react and share their views. Special civil society experts taking part in the Forum this year include - K. Otto-Zimmermann, Secretary-General, International Council for Local Environmental Initiatives (ICLEI) Local Governments for Sustainability; J. Gerber, Chief Operating Officer, World Business Council for Sustainable Development (WBCSD); J. Mati, Research Associate, CIVICUS World Alliance For Citizen Participation; L. Royer, Occupational Health Safety Environment and Sustainable Development Director, International Trade Union Confederation (ITUC); and J. Rockström, Executive Director, Stockholm Environment Institute.

UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon Pays his First Official Visit to Nairobi & UNEP Headquarters

1 February 2006, Nairobi - UN Secretary General, Ban Ki-moon, concluded his visit to Nairobi, yesterday, with a visit to UNEP Headquarters where he met with Mr. Achim Steiner, Executive Director of UNEP. The Secretary General also met with Mrs. Anna Mrs. Anna Tibaijuka, Director-General of UNON and Executive Director of UN Habitat and Heads of Agencies before addressing UN staff in a closed town hall meeting.

Earlier in the day, Mr. Ki-moon paid a courtesy call on Kenya's President, Mwai Kibaki, who had just returned to the country from the African Union meeting in Addis Ababa. The situation in Somalia and the on-going crisis in Darfur were high on the agenda of their hour-long discussion.

Accompanied by Mrs. Anna Tibaijuka and other dignitaries, the Secretary General had kick-started his visit to Nairobi with a tour of the Kibera slums, one of the largest in Africa and home to about one-million people many of whom are unemployed.

Mr. Ki-moon told reporters and residents of Kibera, “I feel very much humbled by what I am seeing now. That makes me resolve again my firm commitment to work for the improvement of the living conditions, education, water, sanitation, housing – all these are the challenges which we must overcome.”

The UN Secretary General also promised to help generate the necessary "political will" to ensure the implementation of the Millennium Development Goals. “We must work together and generate political will to have a smooth implementation of the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) and I will work very closely, and harder than before,” he said.