Lives and Livelihoods
of Hundreds of Millions if not Billions
in Many Parts of the World Influenced by
Ice and Snow Losses Linked to Climate Change
World Environment Day 2007
Tromso/Nairobi, 4 June 2007 - The futures
of hundreds of millions of people across
the world will be affected by declines in
snow cover, sea ice, glaciers, permafrost
and lake ice a new and unique report launched
to mark World Environment Day (WED) says.
Impacts are likely to include significant
changes in the availability of water supplies
for drinking and agriculture, rising sea
levels affecting low lying coasts and islands
and an increase in hazards such as subsidence
of currently frozen land.
An estimated 40 per cent of the world's
population could be affected by loss of
snow and glaciers on the mountains of Asia
says the UN Environment Programme (UNEP)
in the Global Outlook for Ice and Snow.
Similar challenges are facing countries,
communities, farmers and power generators
in the Alps to the Andes and the Pyrenees,
says the report.
Melting ice and snow are also likely to
increase hazards including avalanches and
floods from the build up of potentially
unstable glacial lakes. These can burst
their ice and soil dams sending walls of
water down valleys at speeds close to that
of a modern anti-tank missile.
Rising temperatures and the thawing of
frozen land or 'permafrost' is triggering
the expansion of existing- and the emergence
of new- water bodies in places like Siberia.
These are bubbling methane into the atmosphere
with emissions so forceful they can keep
holes open on the lakes' icy surfaces even
during sub zero winter months.
Methane is a powerful global warming gas
and new estimates indicate that the quantities
emerging from these so called thermokast
lakes is up to five times higher than had
previously been supposed.
Meanwhile less snow and sea ice are leading
to more of the sun's heat being absorbed
by the land and the polar oceans which in
turn may speed up global climate change.
These are among the 'feedbacks' which some
experts fear could trigger even faster or
more abrupt climatic changes with even wider-ranging
impacts on people, economies and wildlife.
Adaptation
Some communities are already adapting to
climate change. For example hunters in parts
of Greenland are abandoning traditional
dog sleds in favour of skiffs as a result
of less predictable sea ice.
A key railway line in China, built on permafrost,
has been designed with special cooling technology
to reduce the risks of subsidence.
However the report acknowledges that many
indigenous peoples lack the financial resources
and technology needed to adapt. While, many
parts of the world currently remain ill
prepared for the likely pace of climatic
change.
Achim Steiner, UN Under-Secretary General
and UNEP Executive Director, said today:
"This report is about ice and snow
and may to some people seem to address issues
from remote and far away places. But the
report underlines that fate of the world's
snowy and icy places in a climatically challenged
world should be cause for concern in every
ministry, boardroom and living room across
the world. Indeed the findings are as relevant
to people living in the Tropics and temperate
climes- and in cities from Berlin to Brasilia
and Beijing to Boston- as they are for the
people living in Arctic or in ice-capped
mountain regions".
"The report comes in 2007, a year
in which climate change came in from the
cold in terms of science, likely impacts
and costs. Indeed the Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change has concluded that
the bill may be less than 0.1 per cent of
global GDP a year. So overcoming the climate
change challenge is the bargain of the century,"
he added.
"The missing link is universal political
action. Today's report should empower the
public to take their leaders to task?should
encourage them to ask how much hotter it
has to get before we act on a fair and forward-looking
emissions reduction deal in Bali this December,"
said Mr Steiner, who was speaking at the
launch in Tromso.
Helen Bjoernoey, the Minister of the Environment
for Norway, said: " This report gives
us an overall picture of the changes in
snow and ice cover and the consequences
for human beings and nature, not only in
the polar and mountainous areas, but all
over the world. To me it is particularly
alarming to realize that climate change
can be a reinforcing process-global warming
results in further global warming".
"As documented in the report, melting
of ice and snow will in itself have severe
consequences on nature and society. But
it will also reduce the reflection of sun
beams from the surface of the Earth and
in this way contribute to further global
warming. Recent scientific findings indicate
that these changes may occur at a faster
rate than reflected in the IPCC 4th Assessment
Report. So, there is reason for deep concern,"
she said.
"The challenge of global climate change
can only be met through global political
action. Norway has adopted as an aim to
limit the global temperature increase to
a maximum of 2 degrees Celsius. And we will
work for having this limit adopted as a
framework for negotiations on future commitments
under the UNFCCC. Norway is prepared to
take its share in this global effort. We
will work actively towards a positive result
at this year's Bali meeting, which can pave
the ground for adoption of an agreement
on global emission reductions at the latest
in 2009," said Ms Bjoernoey.
The Global Outlook for Ice and Snow, involving
UNEP and a network of some 70 of the world's
best experts, has been compiled in part
to support the International Polar Year
(IPY) running from 2007 to 2008.
The peer reviewed report builds on and
in some areas extends the work of the Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) whose fourth
assessment reports were issued between February
and May this year.
The report also flags up areas in need
of further scientific clarity which the
IPY, a major international science initiative
of the World Meteorological Organisation
and the International Council for Science
of which UNEP is a partner, aims to resolve.
These include the likely fate of the Antarctica
and Greenland ice sheets where 98 to 99
per cent of the world's freshwater ice on
the Earth's surface is held.
A total meltdown of the Greenland ice sheet
would trigger an estimated seven metre rise
in sea levels. Even just a 20 per cent melting
of Greenland and a five per cent melting
of Antarctica would result in a four to
five metre sea level rise.
This is a possibility over the coming centuries
if greenhouse gases are not reduced in the
21st century and this might happen sooner
if warming air and warming seawater continue
to destabilize parts of the ice sheets.
The melting of these sheets in conjunction
with those on mountain glaciers and ice
caps, along with the thermal expansion of
the oceans, have so far led to a sea level
rise of just under 20 cm between 1870 and
2001?with sea levels rising by just over
three millimetres annually between the early
11000s and 2006.
Resolving just how much of the ice may
melt has direct consequences for people
living in low lying areas and islands.
Based on today's population a one metre
sea level rise would, without adaptation
measures, expose some 145 million people
to flooding with Asia most affected.
Areas of concern include many small islands
and populations living in the mega deltas
of the Ganges-Brahmaputra, the Mekong and
the Nile in Africa. Low lying Bangladesh
is singled out as a country of particular
concern.
The overall economic costs to communities,
livelihoods, industry and infrastructure
could be nearly $950 billion under a one
metre sea level rise scenario.
Christian Lambrechts of UNEP's Division
of Early Warning and Assessment said the
new report was designed to support the IPY
in other ways.
"We hope that this Global Outlook
will demonstrate that the planet's ice and
snow is intimately connected to all life
on Earth and not just those living or working
in polar and mountain regions," he
added.
Joan Eamer of UNEP Grid-Arendal in southern
Norway said: "The Global Outlook is
unique in the sense that it brings together
all the different forms of ice and snow
that occur in the world?collectively known
as the cryosphere- and links them to the
climate, to nature and to people both now
and in the future".
Pal Prestud of CICERO?the Centre for International
Climate and Environmental Research in Oslo
and Chairman of the Steering Committee for
the new report, added: "One issue that
rings loudly throughout the report is the
need for greater certainty with regards
to that fate of ice sheets. There are signs
that these are breaking up, not just slowly
melting and to date we do not fully understand
the processes behind this".
"We can state with confidence that
sea level rise is increasing, but we lack
the ability to predict how much the ice
sheets will in the end contribute to this
over the next 10 years let alone the next
50 years?all we can say is that their potential
to dramatically increase sea levels is enormous
and far above the current UN Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change predictions,"
he added.
Snow
Seasonal snow cover is the main source of
runoff in the dry season in many mountain
regions?globally over a billion people depend
on it for their water supplies for domestic,
agricultural and industrial uses including
in some cases hydro-electric power generation.
Snow is also economically important for
winter sports, agriculture and animal husbandry
such as reindeer herding and survival of
caribou. Snow that has melted and refrozen
into ice can become too hard for these animals
to graze for their key food source?lichens.
"There have been catastrophic declines
in the Peary caribou on Arctic islands of
North America and they are now considered
endangered. The formation of ice layers,
following rain during the winter..?has been
identified as the chief cause of the declines,"
says the report.
Satellite monitoring shows that, since
the late 1960s, snow cover in the Northern
Hemisphere has been decreasing by 1.3 per
cent per decade.
The Western United States, particularly
in the spring in the Pacific North West,
is among the regions seeing the biggest
decrease.
Here the 'depth' or quantity of water from
snow melt has fallen by between 50 per cent
and 75 per cent over recent decades.
Melting of snow in the Rocky Mountains
of British Columbia form the headwaters
of the Columbia River. It supplies water
for larges areas of western Canada and north-west
United States including for important irrigation
and hydroelectric schemes.
The Global Outlook for Ice and Snow says
that unchecked climate change will aggravate
the changes. For example a 2 degree C temperature
rise in the Cascade Range of mountains of
the Pacific North West of the United States
could "reduce temperate snow cover
by over 20 per cent".
Similar impacts are likely in the Andes,
the Alps and the Pyrenees which in turn
will decrease summer water run off. For
every one degree C rise in temperature,
the snow line is predicted to move up the
mountains?by 120 metres in Chile for example
and by 150 metres in the Alps.
The report notes that the declines in snow
will not be uniform with some climate models
indicating reductions of snow of between
60 per cent and 80 per cent in middle latitudes
like Europe by the end of the century?but
increases in Siberia and the Canadian Arctic
by the same time as a result of increased
precipitation.
Changes in patterns of snow are likely
to impact on tourism and recreation including
skiing and snowmobiling.
"Other less widespread winter sports
such as dog mushing, sledding and snowshoeing
can be important to local economies and
are impacted when snow arrives anomalously
late, too little or not at all," says
the report.
Frozen Ground or Permafrost and the Increase
in Methane Bubbling Lakes
Permafrost or frozen ground is important
for the stability of buildings and infrastructure.
Subsidence is one manifestation of thawing
permafrost.
These soils also contain large quantities
of ancient greenhouse gases which could
be released into the atmosphere as a result
of widespread thawing.
"The upper part of permafrost in boreal
and arctic ecosystems is estimated to contain
around 1000 to 950 gigatonnes of organic
carbon," says the report. Currently
there are around 1000 gigatonnes of organic
carbon in the atmosphere.
Some models predict that permafrost could,
by the end of the century, be thawing in
"practically all areas south of the
Brooks Range in Alaska and in most of a
sub artic Canada. In Russia the most severe
permafrost degradation is projected for
northwest Siberia and the European north.
Almost all permafrost along the southern
coasts of Greenland will be thawing by the
end of the 21st century".
The area of permafrost in China is expected
to decline by 30 per cent to 50 per cent
during this century.
Some countries are already adapting infrastructure
to cope with projected permafrost thawing.
The design of the Qinghai-Tibet railway
already factors in the likely impact of
a 2.6 degree C temperature rise by incorporating
cooling techniques.
"The impacts of climate changes on
stability will also need to be considered
in the design of the proposed China-Russia
oil pipeline," says the report.
Thermokast Lakes
The report also flags up the curious case
of lakes forming in places like Siberia
as a result of the thawing of ice rich permafrost.
Bubbles of methane, estimated to be up to
43,000 years-old, are being released to
the atmosphere.
In Siberia, the amounts of methane being
released maybe five times higher than was
previously supposed.
"If significant permafrost warming
and thawing occurs as projected, tens of
thousands of teragrams of methane could
be emitted from lakes?an amount that greatly
exceeds the 4,850 teragrams of methane currently
in the atmosphere," says the report.
Sea Ice
Sea ice is important in relation to ocean
circulations such as the Gulf Stream and
is also important for the food chain and
also for wildlife such as polar bears and
walruses as well as fisheries.
The livelihoods and cultures of coastal
Arctic indigenous people are inextricably
linked with sea ice.
Nearly four million people live in the
Arctic including indigenous peoples. Impacts
are already being felt. Hunters in Qeqertarsuaq,
Western Greenland, are replacing dog teams
with motor boats because of a lack of solid
ice.
Overall the extent of sea ice in the north
has decreased by 2.5 per cent per decade
in March and close to nine per cent in September
over the past quarter century. At just over
10.5 per cent, the biggest decline has been
in the Greenland Sea.
In Antarctica the trend is less clear cut
with a weak 'non-significant' overall increase
in its extent, for example, in the Ross
Sea of 4.8 per cent per decade but a decrease
in, for example, the Bellingshausen Sea
of 5.3 per cent per decade.
Sea ice extent in both polar regions is
expected to decline by a quarter by 2100
with the Arctic largely ice-free in the
summer by the same date. But the report
also points to possible abrupt changes or
'tipping points' that could bring an ice-free
Arctic in the summer months forward by 60
years.
The Northern Sea Route along the Siberian
coast is currently navigable for 30 days
but this could increase to 120 days during
the century?a new economic opportunity for
the region-but one, along with greater access
to oil and gas fields and fisheries, that
will require careful environmental management.
Glaciers
Many glaciers are already receding in response
to climate change. The report says that
a three degree C rise in summer air temperatures
could see the Alps lose about 80 per cent
of their glacier cover.
Heavily glaciated areas like Argentina
and Chile's Patagonia region and the St
Elias Mountains in Alaska could see the
collapse of these ice bodies.
The formation of lakes as a result of melting
glacier and the risks of glacial lake outburst
floods or GLOFs is also highlighted. Such
lakes have potential to release up to 100
million cubic metres of water at speeds
of up to 10,000 metres a second down vulnerable
valleys.
Mountain regions at risk include the Himalayas,
Tien Shan and the Pamirs of Tajikistan but
also the Andes and the European Alps.
In July 1998 a GLOF in the Shahimardan
valley of Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan killed
over 100 people. Another in August 2002
in the Shakhdara valley of the Tajik Pamir
mountains claimed 23 lives.
Meanwhile in Asia the lives of some 2.4
billion people?40 per cent of the current
global population?are influenced by the
summer meltwaters of glaciers in the Himalayas-Hindu
Kush, Kunlun Shan, Pamir and Tien Shanan
mountain regions.
These glaciers could shrink by between
just over 40 per and up to around 80 per
cent by 2100 under current climate models
with some mountain ranges completely devoid
of glacial coverage.
Rivers at risk include the Syr Darya, Amu
Darya, Indus, Ganges, Brahmaputra, Yangtze
and Huang He or Yellow river where some
1.3 billion people could be at increased
risk of water shortages and many more at
risk of losing irrigation water for crops
as well as disruptions to industry and power
generation.
African glaciers have lost over 80 per
cent of their area indicating major changes
in climate and other phenomena such as rainfall.
River and Lake Ice
Freshwater ice is an important component
of many river and lakes in the Northern
Hemisphere including North America's Red
River; Finland's Lake Kallavesi and Tornionjoki
river and the Angara river in south east
Siberia.
Long term records indicate that rising
air temperatures in the autumn and spring
have produced a 10 to 15 day delay in 'freeze
up' and a similar advance in break up.
Models indicate that continued climate
change might change the timing and magnitude
of spring melting affecting spring 'ice
jam' flooding in communities. Climate change
might actually reduce these dramatic events
in the far north?but this could lead to
the extensive wetlands on Arctic river deltas
drying out and turning to shrubland.
There is also concern over the impacts
on fish and other biodiversity and links
between transport and indigenous peoples.
Currently many remote communities use frozen
lakes and rivers as routes to traditional
hunting, fishing and trapping areas or for
accessing larger human settlements.
Notes to Editors
The Global Outlook for Ice and Snow was
launched today at World Environment Day
2007 held in Tromso, Norway. It, along with
downloadable pictures, is available at http://www.unep.org/geo/geo_ice
The book is available for purchase at www.earthprint.com
priced USD 40
World Environment Day, commemorated each
year on 5 June, is one of the principal
vehicles through which the United Nations
stimulates worldwide awareness of the environment
and enhances political attention and action.
The World Environment Day slogan selected
for 2007 is Melting Ice ? a Hot Topic? In
support of International Polar Year, the
WED theme selected for 2007 focuses on the
effects that climate change is having on
polar ecosystems and communities, and the
ensuing consequences around the world.
The main celebrations will be held in Tromsø,
Norway, a city with a living polar history
which also hosts a centre for polar research.
The highlights of the celebrations include
an ecumenical service led by Archbishop
Desmond Tutu in the Arctic Cathedral, the
awards ceremony for the winners of UNEP's
16th International Children's Painting Competition
on the Environment, with prizes presented
by Crown Prince Haakon of Norway, a scientific
conference on the theme of climate change
at Tromsø University, the Sophie
Prize awards ceremony, and an art exhibition,
as part of UNEP's art and environment initiative.
For more information see www.unep.org/wed/2007
and www.wed.npolar.no
A full programme of events can be found
at www.regjeringen.no
For More Information Please Contact Nick
Nuttall,
