Nairobi/New York, 25 October:The
United Nations Environment Programme says
that major threats to the planet such as
climate change, the rate of extinction of
species, and the challenge of feeding a
growing population are among the many that
remain unresolved, and all of them put humanity
at risk.
The warning comes in UNEP's Global Environment
Outlook: environment for development (GEO-4)
report published 20 years after the World
Commission on Environment and Development
(the Brundtland Commission) produced its
seminal report, Our Common Future.
GEO-4, the latest in UNEP's series of flagship
reports, assesses the current state of the
global atmosphere, land, water and biodiversity,
describes the changes since 1987, and identifies
priorities for action. GEO-4 is the most
comprehensive UN report on the environment,
prepared by about 390 experts and reviewed
by more than 1 000 others across the world.
It salutes the world's progress in tackling
some relatively straightforward problems,
with the environment now much closer to
mainstream politics everywhere. But despite
these advances, there remain the harder-to-manage
issues, the "persistent" problems.
Here, GEO-4 says: "There are no major
issues raised in Our Common Future for which
the foreseeable trends are favourable."
Failure to address these persistent problems,
UNEP says, may undo all the achievements
so far on the simpler issues, and may threaten
humanity's survival. But it insists: "The
objective is not to present a dark and gloomy
scenario, but an urgent call for action."
Achim Steiner, UN Under-Secretary General
and UNEP Executive Director, said: "The
international community's response to the
Brundtland Commission has in some cases
been courageous and inspiring. But all too
often it has been slow and at a pace and
scale that fails to respond to or recognize
the magnitude of the challenges facing the
people and the environment of the planet".
"Over the past 20 years, the international
community has cut, by 95 per cent, the production
of ozone-layer damaging chemicals; created
a greenhouse gas emission reduction treaty
along with innovative carbon trading and
carbon offset markets; supported a rise
in terrestrial protected areas to cover
roughly 12 per cent of the Earth and devised
numerous important instruments covering
issues from biodiversity and desertification
to the trade in hazardous wastes and living
modified organisms," he added.
"But, as GEO-4 points out, there continue
to be 'persistent' and intractable problems
unresolved and unaddressed. Past issues
remain and new ones are emerging?from the
rapid rise of oxygen 'dead zones' in the
oceans to the resurgence of new and old
diseases linked in part with environmental
degradation. Meanwhile, institutions like
UNEP, established to counter the root causes,
remain under-resourced and weak," said
Mr Steiner.
On climate change the report says the threat
is now so urgent that large cuts in greenhouse
gases by mid-century are needed. Negotiations
are due to start in December on a treaty
to replace the Kyoto Protocol, the international
climate agreement which obligates countries
to control anthropogenic greenhouse gas
emissions. Although it exempts all developing
countries from emission reduction commitments,
there is growing pressure for some rapidly-industrializing
countries, now substantial emitters themselves,
to agree to emission reductions.
GEO-4 also warns that we are living far
beyond our means. The human population is
now so large that "the amount of resources
needed to sustain it exceeds what is available...
humanity's footprint [its environmental
demand] is 21.9 hectares per person while
the Earth's biological capacity is, on average,
only 15.7 ha/person...".
And it says the well-being of billions
of people in the developing world is at
risk, because of a failure to remedy the
relatively simple problems which have been
successfully tackled elsewhere.
GEO-4 recalls the Brundtland Commission's
statement that the world does not face separate
crises - the "environmental crisis",
"development crisis", and "energy
crisis" are all one. This crisis includes
not just climate change, extinction rates
and hunger, but other problems driven by
growing human numbers, the rising consumption
of the rich and the desperation of the poor.
Examples are:
- decline of fish stocks;
- loss of fertile land through degradation;
- unsustainable pressure on resources;
- dwindling amount of fresh water available
for humans and other creatures to share;
and
- risk that environmental damage could pass
unknown points of no return.
GEO-4 says climate change is a "global
priority", demanding political will
and leadership. Yet it finds "a remarkable
lack of urgency", and a "woefully
inadequate" global response.
Several highly-polluting countries have
refused to ratify the Kyoto Protocol. GEO-4
says: "... some industrial sectors
that were unfavourable to the... Protocol
managed successfully to undermine the political
will to ratify it." It says: "Fundamental
changes in social and economic structures,
including lifestyle changes, are crucial
if rapid progress is to be achieved."
Among the other critical points it identifies
are:
Water: Irrigation already takes about 70
per cent of available water, yet meeting
the Millennium Development Goal on hunger
will mean doubling food production by 2050.
Fresh water is declining: by 2025, water
use is predicted to have risen by 50 per
cent in developing countries and by 18 per
cent in the developed world. GEO-4 says:
"The escalating burden of water demand
will become intolerable in water-scarce
countries."
Water quality is declining too, polluted
by microbial pathogens and excessive nutrients.
Globally, contaminated water remains the
greatest single cause of human disease and
death.
Fish: Consumption more than tripled from
1961 to 2001. Catches have stagnated or
slowly declined since the 1980s. Subsidies
have created excess fishing capacity, estimated
at 250 per cent more than is needed to catch
the oceans' sustainable production.
Biodiversity: Current biodiversity changes
are the fastest in human history. Species
are becoming extinct a hundred times faster
than the rate shown in the fossil record.
The Congo Basin's bushmeat trade is thought
to be six times the sustainable rate. Of
the major vertebrate groups that have been
assessed comprehensively, over 30 per cent
of amphibians, 23 per cent of mammals and
12 per cent of birds are threatened.
The intrusion of invasive alien species
is a growing problem. The comb jellyfish,
accidentally introduced in 1982 by US ships,
has taken over the entire marine ecosystem
of the Black Sea, and had destroyed 26 commercial
fisheries by 1992.
A sixth major extinction is under way,
this time caused by human behaviour. Yet
to meet our growing demand for food will
mean either intensified agriculture (using
more chemicals, energy and water, and more
efficient breeds and crops) or cultivating
more land. Either way, biodiversity suffers.
One sign of progress is the steady increase
in protected areas. But they must be effectively
managed and properly enforced. And biodiversity
(of all sorts, not just the "charismatic
megafauna" like tigers and elephants)
will increasingly need conserving outside
protected areas as well.
Regional Pressures: This is the first GEO
report in which all seven of the world's
regions emphasize the potential impacts
of climate change. In Africa, land degradation
and even desertification are threats; per
capita food production has declined by 12
per cent since 1981. Unfair agricultural
subsidies in developed regions continue
to hinder progress towards increasing yields.
Priorities for Asia and the Pacific include
urban air quality, fresh water stress, degraded
ecosystems, agricultural land use and increased
waste. Drinking water provision has made
remarkable progress in the last decade,
but the illegal traffic in electronic and
hazardous waste is a new challenge. Europe's
rising incomes and growing numbers of households
are leading to unsustainable production
and consumption, higher energy use, poor
urban air quality, and transport problems.
The region's other priorities are biodiversity
loss, land-use change and freshwater stresses.
Latin America and the Caribbean face urban
growth, biodiversity threats, coastal damage
and marine pollution, and vulnerability
to climate change. But protected areas now
cover about 12 per cent of the land, and
annual deforestation rates in the Amazon
are falling. North America is struggling
to address climate change, to which energy
use, urban sprawl and freshwater stresses
are all linked. Energy efficiency gains
have been countered by the use of larger
vehicles, low fuel economy standards, and
increases in car numbers and distances travelled.
For West Asia the priorities are freshwater
stresses, degradation of land, coasts and
marine ecosystems, urban management, and
peace and security. Water-borne diseases
and the sharing of international water resources
are also concerns. The Polar Regions are
already feeling the impacts of climate change.
The food security and health of indigenous
peoples are at risk from increasing mercury
and persistent organic pollutants in the
environment. The ozone layer is expected
to take another half-century to recover.
The Future
GEO-4 acknowledges that technology can
help to reduce people's vulnerability to
environmental stresses, but says there is
sometimes a need "to correct the technology-centred
development paradigm". It explores
how current trends may unfold by 2050 in
four scenarios.
The real future will be largely determined
by the decisions individuals and society
make now, GEO-4 says: "Our common future
depends on our actions today, not tomorrow
or some time in the future."
For some of the persistent problems the
damage may already be irreversible. GEO-4
warns that tackling the underlying causes
of environmental pressures often affects
the vested interests of powerful groups
able to influence policy decisions. The
only way to address these harder problems
requires moving the environment from the
periphery to the core of decision-making:
environment for development, not development
to the detriment of environment.
"There have been enough wake-up calls
since Brundtland. I sincerely hope GEO-4
is the final one. The systematic destruction
of the Earth's natural and nature-based
resources has reached a point where the
economic viability of economies is being
challenged and where the bill we hand on
to our children may prove impossible to
pay," said Mr Steiner.
The GEO-4 report concludes that "while
governments are expected to take the lead,
other stakeholders are just as important
to ensure success in achieving sustainable
development. The need couldn't be more urgent
and the time couldn't be more opportune,
with our enhanced understanding of the challenges
we face, to act now to safeguard our own
survival and that of future generations"
ends.
Notes to Editors
The Global Environment Outlook (GEO) is
UNEP's flagship assessment process and report
series. The fourth report in the series,
GEO- provides an overview of the global
and regional environmental, social and economic
state-and-trends over the past two decades.
It highlights the interlinkages, challenges
and opportunities which the environment
provides for development and human well-being.
The report also presents an outlook, using
four scenarios to explore plausible futures
to the year 2050, as well as policy options
to address present and emerging environmental
issues.
GEO-4 is produced and published by the Division
of Early Warning and Assessment of the United
Nations Environment Programme. It is available
from www.unep.org/geo/geo/
For more details, please contact:
Global Environment Outlook (GEO) Section
Division of Early Warning and Assessment
(DEWA)
United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP)
Key facts from the report
Atmosphere
There is now "visible and unequivocal"
evidence of the impacts of climate change,
and consensus that human activities have
been decisive in this change: global average
temperatures have risen by about 0.7 °C
since 1906. A best estimate for this century's
rise is expected to be between a further
1.8°C and °C. Some scientists believe
a 2°C increase in the global mean temperature
above pre-industrial levels is a threshold
beyond which the threat of major and irreversible
damage becomes more plausible.
Ice cores show that the levels of carbon
dioxide (CO2) and methane are now far outside
their ranges of natural variability over
the last 500 000 years: the Earth's climate
has entered a state unparalleled in recent
prehistory. The average temperatures in
the Arctic are rising twice as rapidly as
in the rest of the world.
Sea-level rise caused by thermal expansion
of water and the melting of glaciers and
ice sheets will continue for the foreseeable
future, with potentially huge consequences:
over 60 per cent of the population worldwide
lives within 100 kilometres of the coast.
Growing ocean acidification and warmer
temperatures will probably also affect global
food security. Diarrhoea and malaria will
become more widespread.
Present trends do not favour greenhouse
gas stabilisation. Aviation saw an 80 per
cent increase in miles flown between 11000
and 2003, while shipping rose from billion
tonnes of goods loaded in 11000 to 7.1 billion
tonnes in 2005: each sector makes huge and
increasing energy demands.
Some greenhouse gases may persist in the
atmosphere for up to 50 000 years.
Despite "impressive" success in
phasing out ozone-depleting substances,
the spring "hole" in the stratospheric
ozone layer over the Antarctic is now larger
than ever, allowing harmful ultraviolet
solar radiation to reach the Earth.
Acid rain is now much less of a problem
in Europe and North America ("one of
the success stories of recent decades"),
but more challenging in countries like Mexico,
India and China.
Pollution
More than 50 000 compounds are used commercially,
hundreds more are added annually, and global
chemical production is projected to increase
by 85 per cent over the next 20 years.
Environmental exposure causes almost a quarter
of all diseases. More than two million people
worldwide are estimated to die prematurely
every year from indoor and outdoor air pollution.
Some of the progress achieved in reducing
pollution in developed countries has been
at the expense of the developing world,
where industrial production and its impacts
are now being exported.
Food
Losses in total global farm production,
due to insect pests, have been estimated
at about 1 per cent.
Since 1987 the expansion of cropland has
slackened, but land use intensity has increased
dramatically. Annually on average, a farmer
then produced one tonne: output is now 1.
tonnes. A hectare of cropland, which then
yielded on average 1.8 tonnes, now produces
2.5 tonnes.
Unsustainable land use is causing degradation,
a threat as serious as climate change and
biodiversity loss. It affects up to a third
of the world's people, through pollution,
soil erosion, nutrient depletion, water
scarcity, salinity, and disruption of biological
cycles.
The food security of two-thirds of the
world's people depends on fertilisers, especially
nitrogen.
Population growth, over-consumption and
the continued shift from cereal to meat
consumption mean food demand will increase
to 2.5?3.5 times the present figure.
By 2030 developing countries will probably
need 120 million more hectares to feed themselves.
The loss of genetic diversity may threaten
food security: 1 animal species make up
90 per cent of all livestock, and 30 crops
dominate agriculture, providing an estimated
90 per cent of the world's calories.
Biodiversity
About 60 per cent of the ecosystem services
that have been assessed are degraded or
used unsustainably; populations of freshwater
vertebrates declined on average by nearly
50 per cent from 1987 to 2003, much faster
than terrestrial or marine species.
Over half the world's 6 000 languages are
endangered, and some believe up to 90 per
cent of all languages may not survive this
century.
Water
Of the world's major rivers, 10 per cent
fail to reach the sea for part of each year
because of irrigation demands.
In developing countries some 3 million
people die annually from water-borne diseases,
most of them under-five-year-olds. An estimated
2.6 billion people lack improved sanitation
services. By 2025, water withdrawals are
predicted to have risen by 50 per cent in
developing countries and by 18 per cent
in the developed world.
There is rising concern about the potential
impacts on aquatic ecosystems, of personal-care
products and pharmaceuticals such as painkillers
and antibiotics.
The Unequal World
The world has changed radically since 1987,
economically, socially and politically.
Population has increased by almost 3 per
cent, trade is almost three times greater,
and average income per head has gone up
by about 0 per cent.
Consumption has been growing faster than
population, but unequally: the total annual
income of nearly 1 billion people, the population
of the richest countries, is almost 15 times
that of the 2.3 billion people in the poorest
countries.
There are fewer resources to share: the
amount of land per capita is about a quarter
of what it was a century ago, and is expected
to fall to about one-fifth of the 1900 level
by 2050.
Urbanization is a significant pressure:
by 2025 coastal populations alone are expected
to reach six billion. The year 2007 is the
first in human history when more than half
of all people live in cities.
Nick Nuttall, Spokesperson UNEP
