UN Environment Programme/Global
Environment Facility Report Points to Real
Possibilities for Climate Proofing Economies,
Livelihoods and Infrastructure
UN Climate Convention - 2 to 14 December -
Bali and Beyond
Bali/Nairobi, 4 December 2007 - The way farmers
in the Sudan, flood-prone communities in Argentina
and dengue-challenged islands in the Caribbean
are beginning to adapt to climate change are
distilled in a new report launched today.
The five-year Assessments of Impacts and
Adaptations to Climate Change provides new
and inspiring examples of how vulnerable communities
and countries may 'climate proof' economies
in the years and decades to come.
In doing so, the assessments lay a foundation
upon which at-risk nations and the international
community can build and fund a credible and
timely response to the climate change that
is already underway.
Choices - the Tortoise and the 'Hare'
The report underlines that factoring climate
into development strategies is do-able but
that in some cases hard choices may have to
be made.
In a modern re-run of Aesop's famous fable,
it highlights the case of tortoise and the
rabbit rather than hare.
One study in South Africa's world famous
Cape Floral Kingdom - a unique and economically
important ecosystem - indicates that climate
change is likely to increase the risk of extinction
of the highly endangered riverine rabbit.
However, adaptation measures might conserve
the padloper tortoise highlighting how across
sectors - from biodiversity to agriculture,
water and infrastructure - investments in
adaptation will need to be intelligently and
cost-effectively targeted.
The more than $ 9 million assessment has
been funded by the Global Environment Facility
(GEF), implemented by the UN Environment Programme
(UNEP) and executed by the START secretariat
in Washington DC and TWAS, the Academy of
Science for the Developing World in Trieste,
Italy.
Twenty-four case studies were carried out
under the AIACC project, including eleven
in Africa. They encompass food security in
the Sahel; smallholder farmers and artisanal
fishing communities in South America; coastal
townships of small islands in the Pacific;
pastoralists in Mongolia; rice farmers in
the lower Mekong basin.
More than 350 scientists, experts and 'stakeholders'
from 150 institutions in 50 developing countries
and 12 developed ones took part. Pilot adaptation
programmes have been drawn up in some cases
and some of these have already been tested
with many encouraging results.
The findings, stories and recommendations
from the AIACC case studies are presented
in two newly published books, Climate Change
and Vulnerability and Climate Change and Adaptation.
Results of the project are also summarized
in the final technical report and detailed
in a number of supporting reports available
at www.start.org.
Community Involvement and Early Warning
A key success of the assessment has been the
increased awareness among the scientists,
governments and local communities as to the
importance of adaptation.
It also highlights in many cases the need
to develop early warning systems especially,
but not exclusively in Africa, where weather
and climate monitoring networks remain sparse,
under funded or poorly maintained.
Achim Steiner, UN Under-Secretary General
and UNEP Executive Director, said: "2007
has, as a result of the work of the Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), been a year
in which the science of climate change has
reached a finality - it is happening, it is
unequivocal".
"2007 has also seen clear and cost effective
strategies for cutting greenhouse gas emissions
put on the table from improved energy efficiency
in buildings to ones that address deforestation
and agriculture," he added.
"One of the big missing links has been
adaptation, both in terms of adaptive strategies
and in terms of resources for vulnerable communities.
This assessment, involving experts across
the developed and developing world, lays a
solid and much needed foundation - a foundation
upon which adaptation can become part of country
development plans and built into international
assistance including overseas development
aid," said Mr Steiner.
Monique Barbut, Chief Executive Officer and
Chairperson of the GEF, said: "The GEF
has a long history working with the world's
most vulnerable countries
that want environmentally-friendly ways to
adapt to changing climate without sacrificing
key development goals".
"As this wide sweeping assessment shows
first hand, we are moving forward in a very
focused way to weave adaptation strategies
into daily practice. GEF money is working
today to ensure that food security, access
to drinking and irrigation water, sound public
health and other basic needs are protected
now and into the future," she added.
Neil Leary of the International START Secretariat
in Washington, who along with the Academy
of Sciences for the Developing World in Trieste,
have executed the project said: "Adaptation
to climate hazards is not new. People have
always been at risk from the climate and have
continually sought ways of adapting. Still,
variations and extremes of climate regularly
exceed abilities to cope, too often with devastating
effect, and give evidence of what has been
called an adaptation deficit".
"Now climate change threatens to widen
the deficit, as shown by the AIACC studies.
But the AIACC studies also find and document
a variety of adaptive practices in use that
reduce vulnerability. Building on and improving
many of these practices can serve as a good
starting point for adapting to the growing
risks from climate change. Reducing emissions
of the gases that cause climate change is
necessary. But adaptation is necessary too,"
he added.
The decision to carry out the assessments
was at the request of the Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Rajendra Pachauri,
chair of the IPCC said the peer reviewed reports
had made a significant contribution to the
IPCC's landmark fourth assessment report published
this year.
Highlights – Africa
South Africa
The Berg River dam was commissioned in 2004
to supply Cape Town, South Africa with water
for uses such as drinking and irrigation.
Climate change is likely to put increased
stress on water availability over the coming
decades in the Western Cape region.
The researchers looked at various costs and
benefits linked with a variety of adaptation
measures including increasing the capacity
of the dam to creative water markets. They
conclude that "substituting water markets
for the existing allocation system substantially
increased the simulated marginal cost of water
to urban users and led to reduced consumption".
The researchers add that such a system would
have to take into account the impact on poor
households in the Cape Town area.
Another study has looked at cost effective
adaptation opportunities in parts of the Cape
Floral Kingdom in the Western Cape - a biodiversity
hotspot and major tourist attraction.
By 2050, climate change may result in loss
of habitat for over 10 per cent of species
and six per cent would need to move to new
locations. Wildlife corridors will help.
One option might also be to expand the conservation
network including reserves. Overall however
a more cost effective option will be to pay
farmers to manage land for conservation or
to encourage more environment-friendly farming,
the study concludes.
The Gambia
Some projections of climate change suggest
steadily declining rainfall from 2010 to the
end off the century in West Africa. Should
a drier climate come to pass, millet, a key
staple crop, would undergo a gradual decline
in yields unless adaptation measures are taken.
The researchers looked at four responses
including the introduction and extension of
irrigation, the introduction of new crop varieties
and the use of fertilizers.
The findings show that millet crop yields
can be increased even in a climate constrained
world with harvests improved by 13 per cent
if new varieties are deployed; up to a third
if fertilizers are made available and increased
by 37 per cent if irrigation is introduced.
The analysis indicates that new varieties
and expanded use of fertilizer can be cost
effective measures for maintaining grain yields
in a drier climate. However, the adoption
of irrigation is found to be too costly to
be economically viable for growing relatively
low valued grains.
The actual income for poor farmers might
fall without assistance as irrigation will
require the purchase and maintenance of diesel-powered
water pumping kit. Solar-powered pumping could
reduce the costs by perhaps 60 per cent.
Sudan
Here three case studies were undertaken in
the dry, drought-prone and often degraded
lands of Bara Province of North Kordofan;
Arbaat, Red Sea State and El Fashir, North
Darfur to see if communities can be made more
resilient to climatic shocks.
The findings indicate that relatively minor
but well thought out interventions, if supported
by community involvement and involving in
many cases the empowerment of women and services
such as veterinary to micro-credit, can boost
livelihoods and reduce vulnerability.
In Bara, a pilot to develop sustainable livelihoods
has been tested under an UN Development Programme-GEF
initiative called the Community-Based Rangeland
Rehabilitation for Carbon Sequestration'.
Small-scale irrigated vegetable gardens,
pest management, a switch from goats to sheep,
sand dune stabilization and other measures
have been tested as adaptive measures.
The project in Bara has seen land rehabilitation
rise by close to 60 per cent; the carrying
capacity for livestock rise by over 45 per
cent and forage production climb by 48 per
cent.
In Arbaat, various practical and institutional
measures have been tested including the deployment
of rainwater harvesting and tree planting
alongside micro credit schemes, adult literacy
for women and training for improved agricultural
practices.
The work in Arbaat has led to land productivity
increasing by 12 per cent and crop productivity
by almost a fifth with improvements in both
water quality and quantity.
In El Fashir, the community has developed
their own response to a changing climate now
supplemented by outside assistance.
• Utilizing a water collection system known
as trus alongside earth dams.
• Responding to the encroachment of sand over
fertile soils by adopting magun cultivation
involving the sinking of regular placed holes
five to 15 cm deep in which to plant melon
and other seedlings.
• Diversifying crop production including pumpkin,
okra, tomatoes, citrus fruits, cucumbers,
tobacco, millet and sesame.
• The establishment of trades union - the
Traditional Farmers and Fruits and Vegetable
Unions - to organize production, harvesting
and distribution.
The project has registered a 50 per cent
improvement in productivity of the land as
a result of dramatically increased water harvesting.
Asia
Mongolia
A study of livestock - a key mainstay of the
Mongolian economy – indicates that climatic
impacts are already affecting productivity.
Over the period 1980 to 2001, the average
weight of sheep, goats and cattle have fallen
by an average of 4kg, 2kg and 10 kg. Wool
and cashmere production are also down.
Models forecast increasing impacts as a result
of climbing air temperatures including a spread
of the desert area to the north by 2080. The
weight of ewes in the summer is expected to
decline by 50 per cent by the same date as
a result of factors including heat stress.
The area of land in Mongolia suitable for
grazing may decline from 60 per cent now to
20 per in 2080.
There is also concern that climate change
may intensify weather extremes from drought
to a phenomenon called dzuds - sudden spurts
of heavy and long-lasting snowfall that bar
animals from access to grazing land.
In 1999-2000 a dzud event saw herders losing
more than a quarter of their livestock forcing
Mongolia to request international assistance.
A suite of adaptation measures are pinpointed
ranging from insurance systems and risk funds
to buffer herders against climatic shocks
up to improved forecasting of extreme weather
events.
The revival of traditional pasture management,
reforestation of flood plains and irrigation
of pasture lands are also proposed alongside
the provision of animal shelters.
Studies on climatic impacts and possible
adaptation strategies have also been carried
out for Indonesia.
Here the Citarum watershed emerges as highly
vulnerable to climate change with more extreme
floods and droughts likely over the coming
decades.
Studies indicate that many of these impacts
can be minimized if forest cover is kept above
25 per cent. The authorities and the private
sector are now looking at paying communities
upstream to maintain rather than fell the
forest - a system known as payment for ecosystem
services.
"The electricity company Indonesian
Power is also willing to support community
reforestation activities through a community
development programme. With these efforts,
it is expected that a minimum forest cover
of 25 per cent could be achieved to ensure
a continuous supply of water during dry season
and extreme drought years," says the
AIACC report.
China
A further study in Asia has focused on the
Heihe River Basin in Northwestern China -
an area where water supplies are already heavily
utilized if not overtly utilized and where
conflict of water is already occurring.
The study forecasts that that average temperature
rises of between 2.5 degrees C and 6.5 degrees
C could occur by 2050.
A vulnerability assessment has also been
undertaken indicating a range of serious emerging
risks as a result off climate change including
very severe water shortages; increased floods
and droughts and impacts on food supplies.
"Ecosystem vulnerability to climate
change in the Heihe River Basin is also high.
The degree of vulnerability is highest in
the lower reach of the basin which is largely
unmanaged grassland," says the report.
Indeed, it warns that increasing pressure
from climate, population and over use of nature-based
resources could trigger ecological collapse
in some areas.
The researchers have drawn up a list of adaptation
options that might assist the communities
of the Heihe River Basin.
These include water-saving irrigation strategies;
leak reduction from irrigation channels; conserving
soil moisture by plastic films, straw and
deep plowing methods up to the establishment
of market mechanisms such as water permits
and water allocation policies.
Latin America
Argentina and Uruguay
One AIACC study here has focused on the likely
impact of climate change on floods and storm
surges on coastal and estuary lands on La
Plata River.
Strong winds, high tides and the natural
features of the La Plata mean flooding occurs
already with vulnerable areas identified as
Samborombon Bay and up stream as far as Buenos
Aires and its surrounds.
The researchers modeled likely future floods
as a result of climate change including effects
on storm surges and sea level rise.
It is likely that the level of the La Plata
will rise higher than average sea level rise
because of changes in wind patterns with the
increase higher on the Uruguay coast and greater
up the river's estuary.
The report estimates that, as a result of
climate change and a modest one per cent per
year increase in population, the population
at risk of floods could be 1.7 million by
2070 - more than three times the current numbers
at risk of floods.
Around a quarter of a million people will
be at risk of flooding each year or six times
the current number at risk.
Property and infrastructure losses for the
period 2050-2100 could range from five to
15 billion US dollars. Part of the loss calculation
is based on the assumption of a single storm
surge surging into the Metropolitan region
of Buenos Aires.
The findings have been presented to the governments
concerned alongside recommendations that include
a review of coastal and city defenses and
of early warning systems and flood response
strategies.
The report also flags up concern that a traditional
adaptation strategy is being ignored with
increasing numbers of poor settlements and
'gated communities of upper middle class people'
being sited on very low coastal lands.
The Caribbean
Dengue hemorrhagic fever and dengue shock
syndrome are forecast to increase in the tropics
and sub tropics as a result of climate change.
In the Caribbean cases have climbed from
a few hundred a year in the 1980s to as many
as 8,000 a year since the early 11000s.
There are concerns that rising cases of dengue
could impact on the economically-important
tourism industry which accounts for nearly
70 per cent of GDP in Antigua and more than
10 per cent on most other islands.
The researchers estimate that a two degree
C temperature rise in the Caribbean could,
by the 2080s, triple the cases of dengue.
This AIACC study not only assessed the likelihood
of dengue increasing but pin pointed measures
that can reduce the risk.
It found, for example, that pupae of the
dengue-carrying mosquito favour breeding in
40 gallon drums commonly used for outside
water storage. The study also concluded that
informal settlements and poor households,
often headed by a single unemployed woman,
were at greatest risk.
Education on the disease and its transmission,
targeted at these households, is suggested
as one important adaptation strategy, alongside
measures to deal with the breeding grounds.
A pilot early warning system has also been
developed and the findings and recommendations
discussed with several countries including
Jamaica and Trinidad and Tobago.
Notes to Editors
The Assessments of Impacts and Adaptations
to Climate Change (AIACC) was supported by
the Global Environment Facility (GEF), $7.5
million; the United States Agency for International
Development, $300,000; the Canadian International
Development Agency, $100,000; the Rockefeller
Foundation, $25,000 and the United States
Environmental Protection Agency, $50,000.
Participating developing country institutions
provided in-kind co-funding valued at $1.8
million.
The full technical report and supporting reports
from the 24 regional and national assessments
can be found at www.start.org.
The findings and lessons from many of the
AIACC case studies are presented for a general
audience in two books that have just been
published:
Climate Change and Vulnerability, edited by
Neil Leary, Cecilia Conde, Jyoti Kulkarni,
Anthony Nyong, and Juan Pulhin. Earthscan,
London, UK.
Climate Change and Adaptation, edited by Neil
Leary, James Adejuwon, Vicente Barros, Ian
Burton, Jyoti Kulkarni and Rodel Lasco. Earthscan,
London, UK.
UNEP at the UN Framework Convention on Climate
Change (UNFCCC)
www.unep.org/themes/climatechange/
UNFCCC in Bali http://unfccc.int/meetings/cop_13/items/4049.php
Nick Nuttall, UNEP Spokesperson,
