Climate Change and Conflict
- New Report Weighs the Risks and Pin Points
Likely Hotspots
German Advisory Council on Global Change and
UN Environment Programme Claim Combating Global
Warming Contribution to Global Security
News Comes as UN Climate Panel Awarded Nobel
Peace Prize.
Bali, 10 December 2007 - Combating climate
change will be a central peace policy of the
21st century.
Unchecked it is likely to aggravate old and
trigger new tensions in parts of the world
that may spill over into violence, conflict
and war a new report concludes.
Areas at increased risk of insecurity include
northern and southern Africa alongside countries
in the Sahel region and the Mediterranean
Other potential hot spots are central Asia;
India, Pakistan and Bangladesh; China; parts
of the Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico and
Andean and Amazonian regions of Latin America.
The report, prepared by German and Swiss
academics, urges governments meeting at the
UN climate convention conference in Bali to
adopt deep and decisive emission reductions
alongside support for adaptation or 'climate
proofing'.
Otherwise climate change, including more
extreme weather events; impacts like the melting
of glaciers; the drying out of big forest
systems and rising numbers of climate refugees
is likely to overwhelm the ability of many
countries to govern and to cope.
Professor Hans Schellnhuber, a lead author
of the report, Director of he Potsdam Institute
for Climate Impact Research and Visiting Professor
at Oxford University, said:" Without
resolute counteraction, climate change will
overstretch many societies' adaptive capacities
within coming decades. This could result in
destabilization and violence jeopardizing
national and international security to a new
degree".
Achim Steiner, UN Under-Secretary General
and Executive Director UN Environment Programme
(UNEP), said: "There are multiple environmental
challenges facing the world and the security
of communities and countries. Climate change
is perhaps the most high profile".
"However, if we can counter climate
change and climate proof economies to buffer
them against the climatic changes already
underway, perhaps the world can unite around
these other pressing challenges from reversing
the decline of biodiversity and loss of marine
resources up to designing a more intelligent,
fairer and ultimately sustainable global trade
regime".
The new report comes in the wake of rising
concern over climate change and conflict.
Earlier in the year the UN Security Council
debated the issue and there have been warnings
from retired and serving senior military in
Australia, the United States and the United
Kingdom.
Later today the Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change (IPCC), jointly founded by
UNEP and the World Meteorological Organisation,
will co-win the Nobel Peace Prize-again reaffirming
growing understanding between combating climate
change and peace.
The new report, entitled Climate Change as
a Security Risk, has been prepared by the
German Advisory Council on Global Change drawing
on the work of international experts and organizations
including UNEP.
The report suggests four 'climate-induced
conflict constellations'. These are degradation
of freshwaters; decline in food production;
increase in storm and flood disasters and
environmentally-induced migration.
It also tries to define and explain what
may constitute vulnerable states and societies.
These are likely to be ones that are in political
transition and have a low level of economic
activity with often large population or high
population densities.
Countries bordering a neighbour in which
violent conflict is being waged or ones that
have themselves experienced violent conflicts
in the very recent past within their own borders
will also be vulnerable to renewed conflict
in a climatically constrained world.
Highlights from the Report-Regional Hotspots
North Africa: The potential for political
crisis and migratory pressure will intensify
as a result of the interaction between increasing
drought and water scarcity, high population
growth, a drop in agricultural potential and
poor political problem-solving capacities.
The populous Nile Delta will beat risk from
sea-level rise and salinization in agricultural
areas.
Sahel zone: Climate change will cause additional
environmental stress and social crises (e.g.
drought, harvest failure, water scarcity)
in a region already characterized by weak
states (e.g. Somalia, Chad), civil wars (e.g.
Sudan, Niger) and major refugee flows (Sudan:
more than 690,000 people; Somalia: more than
390,000 people).
Southern Africa: Climate change could further
weaken the economic potential of this region,
whose countries already belong to the poorest
in the world in most cases. It could also
worsen the conditions for human security and
overstretch the capacities of states in the
region.
Central Asia: Above-average warming and glacial
retreat will exacerbate the water, agricultural
and distributional problems in a region which
is already characterized by political and
social tensions, civil war (Tajikistan) and
conflicts over access to water and energy
resources.
India, Pakistan, Bangladesh: The impacts
of climate change will be especially severe
in this region: glacial retreat in the Himalayas
will jeopardize the water supply for millions
of people, changes to the annual monsoon will
affect agriculture, and sea-level rise and
cyclones will threaten human settlements around
the populous Bay of Bengal.
These dynamics will increase the social crisis
potential in a region which is already characterized
by cross-border conflicts (India/Pakistan),
unstable governments (Bangladesh/Pakistan)
and Islamism.
China: Climate change will intensify the
existing environmental stress(e.g. air and
water pollution, soil degradation) due to
the increase in heat waves and droughts, which
will worsen desertification and water scarcity
in some parts of the country.
Sea-level rise and tropical cyclones will
threaten the economically significant and
populous east coast. The government¹s
steering capacities could be overwhelmed by
the rapid pace of modernization, environmental
and social crises and the impacts of climate
change.
Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico: Increased
frequency of more intense hurricanes could
overwhelm the economic and political problem-solving
capacities in the region (especially in Central
America).
Andean region and Amazonia: Faster glacial
retreat in the Andes will worsen the region¹s
water problems. The collapse of the Amazon
rainforest, which cannot be ruled out, would
radically alter South America¹s natural
environment, with incalculable economic and
social consequences.
Notes to Editors
The report Climate Change as a Security Risk
is available at www.wbgu.de under flagship
reports. It is also available at Earthscan
www.earthscan.co.uk graphics for download
are available at www.unep.org
UNEP's Post Conflict and Disaster Management
Branch is at http://postconflict.unep.ch/
Nick Nuttall, UNEP Spokesperson
