MEDIA
STATEMENT BY THE OFFICE OF MARTHINUS VAN
SCHALKWYK, MINISTER OF ENVIRONMENTAL AFFAIRS
AND TOURISM - An extensive report about
the effects of climate change, published
by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change (IPCC) at the end of June this year,
shows that if the phenomenon continues unabated,
the damage to one of South Africa’s most
celebrated and popular conservation and
tourism areas could be shattering.
When addressing delegates
at the opening of a conference at Kirstenbosch,
Van Schalkwyk said he does not like to be
alarmist and is therefore quoting from the
IPCC report with the necessary degree of
responsibility. The report indicates that
if global mean temperatures increase 2.5-3ºC
above 11000-levels, up to two thirds of
all animal species in the Kruger National
Park could become extinct. The Minister
stressed the importance of avoiding the
unmanageable impacts of climate change through
a global response that keeps the average
temperature increase below 2ºC compared
to pre-industrial levels.
The Minister also referred
to findings and forecasts in a new special
report on water and climate change by the
IPCC. Van Schalkwyk was speaking at the
“Practising the craft - Writing about climate
change and global warming” conference, which
is hosted by the Fynbos Foundation in association
with the Nieman Foundation for Journalism
at Harvard University and the Nieman Society
of South Africa. The conference is aimed
at journalists and interested parties involved
in communication about climate change and
its impacts.
He said: “This presents
a make or break challenge to world leaders.
To avoid the worst impacts of climate change,
all countries need to carry their fair share
of responsibility to limit a global temperature
increase to below 2ºC. It will be a
failure of this generation of leaders if
any developed country shirks its responsibility
for the problem. The next 18 months will
show whether world leaders, and in particular
the largest historical polluter - the USA
- are ready to rise to this challenge.
“The current US administration
is not willing to commit to absolute emission
reductions, but only to “more rapidly slow
the growth” in their emissions by 2025.
If the rest of the world follows this example,
we are facing a catastrophic temperature
increase of between 4 and 6ºC.”
Van Schalkwyk said South Africa was now
faced with very difficult and important
decisions relating to its own efforts to:
* Reduce and avoid emissions in order to
mitigate against climate
change;
* Build a low carbon economy and a climate
resilient society; and
* Adapt to unavoidable climate change.
“It would not be economically,
environmentally or politically sustainable
for South Africa to continue along a business-as-usual
path - in other words, without a carbon
constraint,” the Minister said.
He highlighted some
of the evidence in the IPCC report which
underscores South Africa’s vulnerabilities.
These include:
* Under a worst case
scenario, crop net revenues in Africa could
decrease by up to 90% by 2100 and small-scale
farmers will be the hardest hit.
* The proportion of the African population
at risk of water stress and scarcity could
increase by 18% in a mere 25 years, from
47% in 2000 to 65% in 2025.
* The growing water scarcity, increasing
population and degradation of ecosystems
in Africa could lead to an increase in the
number of environmental refugees who flee
to countries which are better resourced.
This holds huge conflict potential on the
continent.
* A temperature increase of 2.5-3ºC
this century could lead to the extinction
of 24-59% of mammals, 28-40% of birds, 13-70%
of butterflies, 18-80% of other invertebrates
and 21-45% of reptiles in the Kruger National
Park. A loss of 66% of all animal species
could become a reality if nothing is done.
* In terms of the threat to biodiversity,
5 000 plant species in Africa could be impacted
by climate change. By 2050, the South African
Fynbos biome could lose 51-61% of its extent
due to decreased winter precipitation. The
Succulent Karoo biome, which includes 2800
plant species at increased risk of extinction,
is projected to expand south-eastwards.
“The longer we delay
taking action, the greater the mitigation
and adaptation costs will be. These costs
are not only measured in percentages of
GDP or loss of habitat or species, but most
importantly in terms of the millions of
human lives that are at risk,” he said.
Ends
