28
July 2008 - Media Statement - MEDIA STATEMENT
BY MARTHINUS VAN SCHALKWYK, MINISTER OF
ENVIRONMENTAL AFFAIRS AND TOURISM 28 JULY
2008
MONDAY, 28 JULY 2008:
The South African Government launched its
long-term mitigation scenario (LTMS) process
on climate change in 2006. Findings and
policy recommendations based on the LTMS
were presented to the Cabinet at its Lekgotla
last week. This is the culmination of two
and a half years of work that involved stakeholders
from Government, business, civil society
and labour.
During the Cabinet Lekgotla,
Government discussed the policy implications
of the LTMS in detail. In response, Government
has outlined an ambitious vision and adopted
a pro-active and scientifically and economically
robust policy framework that will ensure
we meet the challenges of climate change
in decades to come. It has set the strategic
direction for climate action in South Africa.
Government’s vision
and the implementation of this policy framework
will be the best insurance policy current
and future generations will have against
the potentially devastating impacts of climate
change. By adopting this strategic direction
South Africa takes a leading position in
the developing world and demonstrates it
is ready to shoulder its fair share of responsibility
as part of an effective global response.
The worst impacts of climate change can
be avoided if the rest of the world takes
up the challenge in a similarly serious
way, with developed countries taking the
lead.
The international negotiations
on strengthening the climate regime after
2012 gained significant momentum at the
talks in Bali in December 2007. This process
will conclude in Copenhagen at the end of
2009. South Africa’s LTMS process also establishes
parameters for our post-2012 negotiating
positions.
Science tells us the
climate challenge is urgent and Government
has therefore formulated a comprehensive
domestic response based on the best available
science, scenario building tools, rigorous
analysis of energy and non-energy emissions,
the consideration of a wide range of mitigation
options and potentials, adaption planning
and economic models. This is indeed cutting
edge work.
Science also tells us
that an increase in global average temperature
above 2ºC poses a danger to all of
us, but in particular the poor. To avoid
the worst impacts of climate change we need
to limit the temperature increase to 2ºC
above pre-industrial levels. We are already
approximately 0.7ºC above pre-industrial
levels.
The world faces a global
climate emergency. It is now clear that
only action by both developed and developing
countries can prevent the climate crisis
from deepening. While developed countries
bear most of the responsibility for causing
the problem to date, developing countries
– including South Africa – must face up
to our responsibility for the future. Whilst
we have different historical responsibilities
for emissions, we share a common responsibility
for the future.
The technical work done
in the LTMS makes it clear that without
constraints our emissions might quadruple
by 2050. This is, in the most literal sense,
not sustainable: If we continue with business-as-usual,
we will go out of business. The alternative
is a very challenging scenario – to make
it our goal to achieve what is required
by science of a developing country. According
to the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report, avoiding
dangerous climate change requires developed
countries to reduce their emissions compared
to 11000 levels by 80% to 95% by 2050, and
by 25% to 40% by 2020. In developing countries,
substantial deviations below business-as-usual
baselines are required.
The implementation of
a combination of the three LTMS strategic
options - in other words those that can
be achieved with known technologies and
at a relatively affordable cost - can deliver
a substantial deviation from business-as-usual
emission trajectories in South Africa. By
committing to and implementing this vision
and policy framework, Government will make
a meaningful contribution to the international
effort. It is more ambitious and detailed
than what many countries in the current
negotiation process have put on the table.
GOVERNMENT’S VISION
Government has outlined
its vision for climate policy in the following
terms:
In designing our policy
for the transition to a climate resilient
and low-carbon economy and society, we will
balance our mitigation and adaptation response.
Our climate response policy, built on six
pillars, will be informed by what is required
by science, namely to limit global temperature
increase to 2°C above pre-industrial
levels. The six policy direction themes
are:
Theme 1: Greenhouse gas emission reductions
and limits;
Theme 2: Build on, strengthen and/or scale
up current initiatives;
Theme 3: Implementing the “Business Unusual”
Call for Action;
Theme 4: Preparing for the future;
Theme 5: Vulnerability and Adaptation; and
Theme 6: Alignment, Coordination and Cooperation.
We will continue to
pro-actively build the knowledge base and
our capacity to adapt to the inevitable
impacts of climate change, most importantly
by enhancing early warning and disaster
reduction systems and in the roll-out of
basic services, water resource management,
infrastructure planning, agriculture, biodiversity
and in the health sector.
GHG emissions must peak,
plateau and decline. This means it must
stop growing at the latest by 2020-2025,
stabilise for up to ten years and then decline
in absolute terms.
Over the long term we
will redefine our competitive advantage
and structurally transform the economy by
shifting from an energy-intensive to a climate-friendly
path as part of a pro-growth, pro-development
and pro-jobs strategy.
Implementing policy
under six themes will lay the basis for
measurable, reportable and verifiable domestic
emission reduction and limitation outcomes.
Overall, this would
constitute a fair and meaningful contribution
to global efforts. We would demonstrate
leadership in the multi-lateral system by
committing to a substantial deviation from
baseline, enabled by international funding
and technology.
MITIGATION STRATEGY
With reference specifically
to our mitigation strategy, Cabinet adopted
the following approach:
The Start Now strategic
option as outlined in the LTMS will be further
implemented. This is based, amongst others,
on accelerated energy efficiency and conservation
across all sectors, including industry,
commerce, transport and residential, inter
alia through more stringent building standards.
We will invest in the
Reach for the Goal strategic option by setting
ambitious research and development targets
focussing on carbon-friendly technologies,
identifying new resources and affecting
behavioral change.
Furthermore, regulatory
mechanisms as set out in the Scale Up strategic
option will be combined with economic instruments
such as taxes and incentives under the Use
the Market strategic option, with a view
to:
Setting ambitious and mandatory (as distinct
from voluntary) targets for energy efficiency
and in other sub-national sectors. In the
next few months each sector will be required
to do work to enable it to decide on actions
and targets in relation to this overall
framework.
Based on the electricity-crisis
response, government’s energy efficiency
policies and strategies will be continuously
reviewed and amended to reflect more ambitious
national targets aligned with the LTMS.
Increasing the price
on carbon through an escalating CO2 tax,
or an alternative market mechanism.
Diversifying the energy
mix away from coal whilst shifting to cleaner
coal, by for example introducing more stringent
thermal efficiency and emissions standards
for coal fired power stations.
Setting similar targets for electricity
generated from both renewable and nuclear
energy sources by the end of the next two
decades.
Laying the basis for
a net zero-carbon electricity sector in
the long term.
Incentivising renewable energy through feed-in
tariffs.
Exploring and developing
carbon capture and storage (CCS) for coal
fired power stations and all coal-to-liquid
(CTL) plants, and not approving new coal
fired power stations without carbon capture
readiness.
Introducing industrial policy that favours
sectors using less energy per unit of economic
output and building domestic industries
in these emerging sectors.
Setting ambitious and
where appropriate mandatory national targets
for the reduction of transport emissions,
including through stringent and escalating
fuel efficiency standards, facilitating
passenger modal shifts towards public transport
and the aggressive promotion of hybrids
and electric vehicles.
PROCESS GOING FORWARD: 2009 to 2012
Cabinet has mandated
a clear path for the future. Milestones
will include a national summit in February
next year, the conclusion of international
negotiations at the end of 2009 and a final
domestic policy to be adopted by the end
of 2010 after international negotiations
have been completed.
The process will culminate
in the introduction of a legislative, regulatory
and fiscal package to give effect to the
strategic direction and policy from now
up to 2012.
LONG TERM MITIGATION SCENARIOS: STRATEGIC
OPTIONS FOR SOUTH AFRICA link
Ronel Bester
