Nick
Smith15 April, 2009 - New Zealand is now
expected to exceed its Kyoto target by 9.6
million tonnes – a surplus worth an estimated
$241 million, Climate Change Minister Nick
Smith announced today.
Dr Smith today released
the 2009 Net Position Report for the first
commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol
(2008-2012). The results for 2009 are in
contrast to 2008 which projected a deficit
of 21.7 million tonnes (an estimated cost
of $546 million).
The main reasons for
the change are the drop in agriculture emissions
caused by the drought in 2007/08 and improved
information on carbon storage in forests.
“It is good news that
we may exceed our Kyoto target but we need
to be cautious of these projections given
their volatility.
“It is difficult for
the Government to make sound climate change
policy when projections have ranged from
a 55 million tonne surplus in 2002 to a
64 million tonne deficit in 2006 and when
the figures over the past year have varied
by 31 million tonnes equivalent to $787
million.
“The 2009 projections
will be independently reviewed and audited
over the next few months to check they are
as accurate as possible.”
The significant changes
in projections include:
Deforestation emissions
down by 9.6 million tonnes (Mt) due to new
data showing smaller trees being felled
in land use changes
Post-1989 (Kyoto) forests
absorbing 8.2Mt more of carbon due to the
trees not being thinned and being planted
on better soils
Drought conditions causing
significant reductions of 10.3Mt in animal
emissions due to fewer cattle, sheep and
deer
More accurate data on
nitrous oxide agricultural emissions resulting
in a 3.8Mt improvement
“There has been no significant
change in emissions from the energy, transport
and industrial sectors. There has been a
minor reduction due to the recession in
transport emissions but this has been offset
by the reduction in the fuel price since
the 2008 peak and the effect of the previous
Government’s decision to defer entry to
the ETS two years.
“These changes in projections
highlight how difficult it is to measure
natural processes like farm animal and forestry
emissions which demonstrate the unique Kyoto
challenges that New Zealand has.”
“There are two important
factors to recognize in the latest projections.
First, these figures do not signal any progress
in abating New Zealand’s gross greenhouse
gas emissions which are 23 percent above
11000 levels. We are just fortunate that
more than 600,000 hectares of new forests
were planted in the 11000s that are growing
strongly and offsetting our continued growth
in energy and transport emissions.
“Secondly, these projections
are for New Zealand Incorporated and not
the Government and it is highly unlikely
the Crown will end up with any surplus.
This is because post-1989 forest owners
may choose to claim millions of tonnes of
credits that their forests absorb between
2008 and 2012.
“These positive figures
are to be welcomed but New Zealand still
has a major challenge to reduce its gross
greenhouse gas emissions. The Government
will be continuing to advance pragmatic
policies to ensure New Zealand contributes
constructively to global efforts to address
climate change.”
Points to Note:
The 2009 Net Position
Report shows that New Zealand’s liability
of $481.6 million as at 31 January 2009
moves to being a projected asset of $243
million, using the Treasury carbon price
as at 31 January 2009 of $25.31 per tonne.
That is an improvement of $787 million dollars
since last year’s projection.
The Net Position Report
uses best available information at the time
of projection. The figures are produced
by the Ministry for Agriculture and Forestry,
the Ministry of Economic Development and
the Ministry for the Environment. The Ministry
for the Environment compiles the report
across government.
The exact net position
will not be known until 2015 after New Zealand’s
national greenhouse gas inventory covering
the first commitment period has been internationally
reviewed and the review report accepted
by the Enforcement Branch of the Compliance
Committee of the Kyoto Protocol.
The Ministry’s Net Position
Report (Projected balance of emissions units
during the first commitment period of the
Kyoto Protocol) is published on its website
at http://www.mfe.govt.nz/issues/climate/about/qa-net-position.html.
It is an overview of emission projections
across all industry sectors. Specific emissions
data for each sector are reported by the
agency responsible and included as appendices
to the Ministry for the Environment report.
Detailed questions on each sector should
be answered by the agency responsible for
that sector. For example, energy and industry
emissions are available from the Ministry
for Economic Development.
