Posted on 14 October
2009 - London,
UK - New data, released today by the Catlin
Arctic Survey and WWF, provides further
evidence of thinning Arctic Ocean sea ice,
supporting the emerging thinking that the
Ocean will be largely ice-free in summer
within a decade.
The Catlin Arctic Survey,
completed earlier this year, provides the
latest ice thickness record, drawn from
the only survey capturing surface measurements
in the last winter and spring.
The data collected by
manual drilling and observations on a 450
kilometre route across the northern part
of the Beaufort Sea suggests the survey
area is comprised almost exclusively of
first year ice.
This is a significant
finding because the region has traditionally
contained older, thicker multi-year ice.
The average thickness of the ice-floes measured
1.8 metres, a depth considered too thin
to survive the next summer’s ice melt.
The findings were analysed
by the Polar Ocean Physics Group at the
University of Cambridge, led by Professor
Peter Wadhams, one of the world’s leading
experts on sea ice cover in the North Pole
region.
“With a larger part
of the region now first year ice, it is
clearly more vulnerable,” said Professor
Wadhams. “The area is now more likely to
become open water each summer, bringing
forward the potential date when the summer
sea ice will be completely gone.
“The Catlin Arctic Survey
data supports the new consensus view, based
on seasonal variation of ice extent and
thickness, changes in temperatures, winds
and especially ice composition, that the
Arctic will be ice-free in summer within
about 20 years, and that much of the decrease
will be happening within 10 years.
“That means you’ll be able to treat the
Arctic as if it were essentially an open
sea in the summer and have transport across
the Arctic Ocean.”
According to the scientists
who have studied the data, the technique
used by the explorers to take measurements
on the surface of the ice has the potential
to help ice modellers to refine predictions
about the future survival or decline of
the ice.
“This is the kind of
scientific work we always wanted to support
by getting to places in the Arctic which
are otherwise nearly impossible to reach
for research purposes,” said Expedition
leader Pen Hadow.
“It’s what modern exploration should be
doing. Our on-the-ice techniques are helping
scientists to understand better what is
going on in this fragile ecosystem.”
The results of the analysis
of more than 6000 measurements and observations
collected by the survey in 73 days on the
ice were unveiled today in London with warnings
that rapid climate change in the Arctic
risked the release of vast quantities of
carbon stored in hydrates on the Arctic
seabed or in frozen tundra soils.
“The arctic sea ice
holds a central position in our Earth’s
climate system. Take it out of the equation
and we are left with a dramatically warmer
world,” said Dr. Martin Sommerkorn from
the WWF International Arctic Programme,
which was a partner in the survey.
“Such a loss of Arctic
sea ice cover has recently been assessed
to set in motion powerful climate feedbacks
which will have an impact far beyond the
Arctic itself – self perpetuating cycles,
amplifying and accelerating the consequences
of global warming. This could lead to flooding
affecting one quarter of the world’s population,
substantial increases in greenhouse gas
emissions from massive carbon pools, and
extreme global weather changes."
“Today’s findings provide
yet another urgent call for action to world
leaders ahead of the UN climate summit in
Copenhagen this December to rapidly and
effectively curb global greenhouse gas emissions,
with rich countries committing to reduce
emissions by 40% by 2020.”
