15 December 2009 - This
report presents, analyses and discusses
the proposal for emission ceilings for Denmark
computed by the International Institute
for Applied Systems
Analysis (IIASA) by their optimization model
Greenhouse Gas and Air Pollution Interactions
and Synergies (GAINS), as part of the ongoing
negotiations on a revised national emission
ceiling (NEC) directive aiming for the year
2020.
The proposal is based
upon various reduction scenarios established
as result of consultations with stake holders
and quantified by the GAINS optimisation
model.
Common for the scenarios
is the demand meeting the objectives of
the TS, regarding compounds effecting environment
and human health (sulphur dioxide (SO2),
nitrogen oxides (NOX), non-methane volatile
compounds (NMVOC), ammonia (NH3) and particulate
matters (PM)).
The optimization module
of GAINS provides cost-effective solutions
to reach the TSAP (Thematic Strategy on
Air Pollution) objectives for selected countries.
This report focuses
on analysing two specific scenarios computed
by the GAINS model. They are run parallel
and were published by IIASA in the reports
NEC-4 and NEC-5 in 2007. These two reports
were the most recent when this project was
commenced. Afterwards, IIASA has computed
a new group of scenarios, published in their
NEC-6 report which is the direct base for
the EU proposal on a revised NEC directive.
The main results from this latest scenario
session are included in the present report
and compared to the more in-depth analysed
scenarios.
The analyses show fine
accordance between the Baseline scenario
of the GAINS model, based upon Danish reported
activity data, and the latest emission projection
from the National Environmental Research
Institute, Aarhus University (NERI) from
2008.
Compared to the NERI
baseline projection especially NOX and SO2
turn out to be reduced towards 2020 in the
scenarios, which may be difficult to accomplish,
especially regarding NOx. The analysis of
the new GAINS reduction scenario show that
Denmark will have to reduce emissions of
NMVOC and PM, since increased use of wood-burning
in the households will lead to increased
emissions.
NEC-2020 emission reduction
scenarios. Assessment of intermediary GAINS
emission reduction scenarios for Denmark
aiming at the upcoming 2020 National Emission
Ceilings EU directive. Slentø, E.,
Nielsen, O.-K., Hoffmann, L., Winther, M.,
Fauser, P., Mikkelsen, M.H. & Gyldenkærne,
S., 2009: National Environmental Research
Institute, Aarhus University, Denmark. 216
pp. – NERI Technical Report no. 746. |Summary|
Sammenfatning |Full report in PDF-format
(8.4 MB).
