London/Nairobi, 25 March
2010 - The targets and intended reductions
for greenhouse gas emissions that have been
submitted by countries to the Copenhagen
Accord take the world a long way towards
a path that offers a reasonable chance of
avoiding a rise in global
average temperature of more than 2°C,
but should go further, according to an analysis
launched today by the Grantham Research
Institute on Climate Change and the Environment
at London School of Economics and Political
Science, with the United Nations Environment
Programme (UNEP).
The study by Nicholas
Stern, Christopher Taylor and UNEP concludes
that plans submitted to the Copenhagen Accord
would result in global annual emissions
of about 48 billion tonnes of carbon-dioxide-equivalent
in 2020, if countries deliver 'high intention'
reductions.
This would fall short
of a 'climate responsible' target of 44
billion tonnes, but would still be consistent
with a 2°C goal if more difficult and
costly annual reductions of at least 4 per
cent per year could be achieved for the
decades after 2020.
So far, 108 developed
and developing countries have associated
themselves with the Copenhagen Accord, and
74 countries, which are collectively responsible
for more than 80 per cent of current annual
global emissions of greenhouse gases, have
submitted targets and intended actions which
are now listed in the Appendices of the
Accord.
The report states: "Our
analysis suggests that, although the targets
and intended actions are substantial, they
would not be enough to limit annual emissions
to 44 billion tonnes in 2020, but would
collectively imply global annual emissions
of about 48.2 to 49.2 billion tonnes."
"This level of
emissions would represent a reduction of
6.7 to 7.7. billion tonnes compared with
the associated 'business as usual' forecast
for emissions in 2020 of 55.9 billion tonnes."
"Emissions in 2020
of about 48 billion tonnes would mean that
greater and more costly emissions reductions
of around 4 per cent per year would be required
after 2020 for a path that would just about
have a reasonable chance of avoiding a temperature
increase of more than 2°C."
"Hence those targets
and intended actions that have been submitted
to the Copenhagen Accord would not make
it impossible to have a reasonable chance
of avoiding a temperature rise of more than
2°C, but it would make it significantly
more difficult and costly."
Lord Stern said: "We
must recognise that achieving a reasonable
chance of not exceeding a rise of 2°C
requires global emissions to peak before
2020, and to be more than 50 per cent below
11000 levels by 2050, with rich countries'
emissions at least 80 per cent below. And
thus the country-by-country emissions targets
must be consistent with global ambitions.
The key challenge this year, before the
next United Nations climate change conference
in Mexico, is to translate the 2°C temperature
goal into emissions reductions. We must
apply the discipline of an overall global
annual emissions budget of much less than
35 billion tonnes of carbon-dioxide-equivalent
in 2030 and much less than 20 billion tonnes
in 2050, compared with nearly 50 billion
tonnes now."
Lord Stern added: "Overall
the achievement of the targets and the realization
of the intentions submitted to the Appendix
of the Copenhagen Accord would represent
a big step away from 'business as usual'
emissions, and could be consistent with
a slow start on a path to a 2°C goal.
However, countries could reduce the overall
difficulty and cost of meeting the 2°C
goal if they find ways to achieve stronger
emissions reductions by 2020. Further reductions
of about 3 to 5 billion tonnes in annual
emissions by 2020 would be required to reach
a 'climate responsible' level of 44 billion
tonnes. Whatever emissions level is reached
in 2020, strong reductions will be required
subsequently to have a reasonable chance
of avoiding a rise in global average temperature
of more than 2°C."
"The Copenhagen
Accord has provided a platform for achieving
a path towards a 2°C goal. It also recognised
the need to provide US$30 billion over the
next three years and US$100 billion per
year by 2020, to help developing countries
make the transition to low-carbon growth,
including combating deforestation, and adapt
to those impacts of climate change that
cannot now be avoided. The United Nations
Secretary-General, Ban Ki-moon, has launched
a High-Level Advisory Group on Mobilising
Climate Change Resources to explore options
for how significant financial support for
developing countries should be raised. There
has been progress on tackling deforestation
through REDD+, and we have also seen other
important initiatives, such as the announcement
by Dominique Strauss-Kahn, the managing
director of the International Monetary Fund,
that his staff are working on the possibility
for a 'Green Fund' which would have the
capacity to raise US$100 billion per year
by 2020, based on Special Drawing Rights
of the IMF, to assist climate change mitigation
and adaptation in developing countries."
Achim Steiner, United
Nations Under-Secretary General and UNEP
Executive Director, said: "The report
underlines two stark and sobering facts.
Nations need to raise their ambition in
terms of emission reductions but also to
make good on their pledges of financial
support. Fast track funding of US$30 billion
was pledged at the conference in Copenhagen
in December and this needs to be made available
without delay. Accelerating these investments
into adaptation and de-carbonizing developing
country economies will bring traction to
the international negotiations as the world
prepares to meet in Mexico later in the
year."
Notes to Editors:
1. Nicholas Stern was
Second Permanent Secretary at HM Treasury
between 2003 and 2007. He also served as
Head of the Government Economic Service,
head of the review of economics of climate
change (the results of which were published
in 'The Economics of Climate Change: The
Stern Review' in October 2006), and director
of policy and research for the Commission
for Africa. His previous posts included
Senior Vice-President and Chief Economist
at the World Bank, and Chief Economist and
Special Counsellor to the President at the
European Bank for Reconstruction and Development.
He was recommended as a non-party-political
life peer by the UK House of Lords Appointments
Commission in October 2007. Baron Stern
of Brentford was introduced in December
2007 to the House of Lords, where he sits
on the independent cross-benches.
2. The Grantham Research
Institute on Climate Change and the Environment
(http://www.lse.ac.uk/grantham) was launched
at the London School of Economics and Political
Science in October 2008. It is funded by
The Grantham Foundation for the Protection
of the Environment (http://www.granthamfoundation.org/).
Lord Stern is also Chair of the Centre for
Climate Change Economics and Policy (http://www.cccep.ac.uk/),
which is hosted by the University of Leeds
and the London School of Economics and Political
Science. He is also I.G. Patel Professor
of Economics and Government and Director
of the India Observatory at London School
of Economics and Political Science.
