18/06/2010
From the Press
Office of the World Bank in Brasília
Brazil could reduce its gross greenhouse
gas emissions (GHG) by up to 37 percent
between 2010 and 2030, while at the same
time maintaining the development goals set
out by the government for that period, without
negatively affecting growth or jobs, says
a new World Bank study of low carbon development
scenarios in Brazil. This would be the equivalent
of taking all of the world's cars out of
circulation for three years. The study was
launched yesterday (June 17), in Brazil's
capital Brasília, during a seminar
attended by several ministries and research
centers.
"Brazil is one
of the leading nations at climate negotiations,
it has one of the cleanest energy matrixes
and is offering creative and constructive
solutions both at the global and national
levels, as is demonstrated by our voluntary
commitment to reduce emissions by between
36.1% and 38.9% by 2020", said Izabella
Teixeira, Environment Minister. "This
study joins a list of others proving Brazil's
potential. However, our 2005 emissions represented
barely 6.6% of total global emissions. The
developed world is responsible for the largest
share, and needs to contribute directly
and proportionally to the solution of this
problem."
The Brazil Low Carbon
Study indicates that the country has a great
opportunity to mitigate and reduce emissions,
mainly in areas such as changes in land
use (like agriculture and deforestation),
energy, transportation and waste management.
In each of those areas, the study identifies
opportunities to reduce emissions that would
have no impact on economic development.
The efficiency of those activities is measured
against a reference scenario, tracing the
current path into the future while incorporating
different development levels. Reaching that
low carbon scenario would require additional
investments of around US$ 400 billion over
twenty years.
According to World Bank
Director for Brazil Makhtar Diop, "certainly,
consolidating this emission reduction scenario
is a great challenge in terms of planning
and financing. However, the Brazilian economy
would be positively affected. Results show
a boost in annual GDP growth and job creation.
Taking everything into account, doing nothing
would be more costly - both in terms of
the national as well as the global impact,
and the need to adapt to climate change."
Approximately 40% of
Brazil's gross carbon emissions come from
deforestation, even though recent efforts
from the government to protect forests have
significantly contained that number in the
last few years. Together with agriculture
and livestock raising, 75% of Brazilian
emissions derive from changes in land use.
"Avoiding deforestation
is by far the best option to reduce GHG
emissions in Brazil", said Christophe
de Gouvello, report coordinator. "The
Brazilian government has been fighting deforestation
through forest protection policies and programs,
but it also has the opportunity to use other
instruments - such as increasing the use
of pastures and reintegrating degraded areas
to the production cycle, avoiding encroachment
on new areas."
According to the study's
estimates, a new land use dynamic in Brazil
would reduce deforestation by up to 68%
by 2030, compared to the reference scenario
estimated for that same year. According
to the report, market mechanisms would not
be enough to take advantage of all the opportunities
Brazil has to mitigate emissions. Public
policies and planning are essential, especially
with regards to managing land competition
and forest protection.
In the energy sector,
given that emissions in Brazil are already
relatively low due to its renewable matrix,
opportunities for reduction are lower. It
is estimated that the share of that sector's
emissions will continue to grow along with
the economy, and may reach more than a quarter
of the country's total emissions by 2030.
Therefore, even if the actions suggested
for a low carbon scenario are carried out,
such as increasing ethanol exports, achieving
energy efficiency in industry and regional
integration, emissions would still be approximately
28 percent higher in 2030 than 2008.
As with energy, the
Brazilian transportation sector is mentioned
in the report as a low-carbon-intensity
sector in comparison to other countries,
due to the widespread use of ethanol. Nevertheless,
the fossil fuels used in transportation
accounted for 12 percent of all CO2 emissions
in 2008. Public transportation policies
in cities and multimodal distribution for
regional transportation could reduce emissions
by 26 percent and 9 percent, respectively,
by 2030. Combining these with an increased
use of ethanol could possibly double these
reductions. Implementing this low carbon
scenario for the transportation sector would
mean lowering the rate of emission increases
attributed to the sector, from almost 65
percent to less than 17 percent by 2030.
With respect to waste
management, which accounts for the lowest
share of Brazilian emissions, 4.7 percent
in 2008, the report recommends the systematic
burning of methane, better planning, more
investment and incentives to manage landfills
and other collection and processing services.
The implementation of adequate policies
could reduce sector emissions by up to 80
percent by 2030, a volume comparable to
Paraguay's entire emissions.
"The sum of all
the necessary investments for each sector
and the collateral effects on the rest of
the economy would counterbalance the potential
negative effects and even promote growth
and job creation. As an investment, the
low carbon scenario generates profits in
three ways: economic growth, long term environmental
sustainability and global benefits",
Diop added.
The Brazil Low Carbon
Study is part of a series of analytical
works on low carbon development scenarios
for several countries. The World Bank recently
published the Global Development Report
on Climate Change and the Latin America
and the Caribbean Report on Low Carbon Development.
