Helsinki/Mexico City/Nairobi/London/Washington
DC, 23 November 2010 - Nations have the
chance to deliver almost 60 per cent of
the emissions reductions needed to keep
global temperatures under a 2 degrees Celsius
rise.
But only if the pledges
made last year in Copenhagen are fully met.
These are among the
findings of a new report compiled by the
UN Environment Programme (UNEP) and jointly
authored by over 30 leading scientists from
numerous international research institutes.
The report was convened
in conjunction with the European Climate
Foundation and the National Institute of
Ecology-SEMARNAT, Mexico.
The findings, launched
in advance of the UN climate convention
meeting in Cancun, Mexico, spotlight the
size of the 'emissions gap' between where
nations might be in 2020 versus where the
science indicates they need to be.
UN Secretary-General,
Ban Ki-moon, said, "I encourage all
Parties to make good on their national mitigation
pledges, and to further progress within
the negotiations as well as through strengthened
efforts on the ground to curb emissions.
There is no time to waste. By closing the
gap between the science and current ambition
levels, we can seize the opportunity to
usher in a new era of low-carbon prosperity
and sustainable development for all."
It is estimated that,
in order to have a 'likely' and cost-effective
chance of pegging temperatures to 2 degrees
Celsius or below over the 21st Century,
global emissions will need to have peaked
within the next 10 years and be around 44
gigatonnes of CO2 equivalent in 2020.
The report, whose compilation
was led by the UNEP Chief Scientist, finds
that:
Under a business-as-usual
scenario, annual emissions of greenhouse
gases could be around 56 gigatonnes of CO2
equivalent by 2020. As a point of reference,
global emissions were estimated to be around
48 gigatonnes in 2009;
Fully implementing the
pledges and intentions associated with the
Copenhagen Accord could, in the best case
identified by the group, cut emissions to
around 49 gigatonnes of CO2 equivalent by
2020;
This would leave a gap
of around 5 gigatonnes of CO2 equivalent
that needs to be bridged over the coming
decade - an amount equal to the emissions
of all the world's cars, buses and trucks
in 2005;
In the worst case identified
in the report - where countries follow their
lowest ambitions and accounting rules set
by negotiators are lax rather than strict
- emissions could be as high as 53 gigatonnes
in 2020, only slightly lower than business
as usual projections.
Achim Steiner, UN Under-Secretary
General and UNEP Executive Director, said:
"The results indicate that the UN meeting
in Copenhagen could prove to have been more
of a success than a failure if all the commitments,
intentions and funding, including fully
supporting the pledges of developing economies,
are met."
"There is a gap
between the science and current ambition
levels. But, what this report shows is that
the options on the table right now in the
negotiations can get us almost 60 per cent
of the way there. This is a good first step."
The Mexican Secretary
of Environment and Natural Resources, Mr.
Juan Rafael Elvira, added that "the
level of effort expressed in the Copenhagen
Accord in terms of emission reduction is
almost three times higher that what was
achieved with the Kyoto Protocol, which
is by itself very positive and shows some
improvement. However, we need to formalize
and, if possible, increase current pledges
and translate them into commitments for
developed countries and into acknowledged
actions for developing countries".
In addition, the report
shows that the way in which the pledges
are implemented - in other words how, for
example, the accounting rules are set through
the negotiations - can be almost as important
as the big headline figures of the pledges
themselves. In other words, the rules underpinning
the emissions reduction matter as much as
the pledges.
"This still leaves
a gap of perhaps 5 gigatonnes of CO2 equivalent
- a gap that could be bridged by higher
ambition on CO2 by developed and developing
countries perhaps complimented by action
on a range of so-called non-CO2 pollutants
such as methane from waste tips to black
carbon from the inefficient burning of biomass
and animal wastes," said Mr. Steiner.
Christiana Figueres,
Executive Secretary of the UN Framework
Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), said:
"The report underlines both the feasibility
of emission reductions and the importance
of international cooperation to raise the
current inadequate level of ambition. Governments
meeting at the UN Climate Conference in
Cancún will need to both anchor the
pledges they made in Copenhagen in the UN
context and to work swiftly to agree ways
to reduce emissions so that the world has
a chance of staying below a 2 degrees Celsius
temperature rise."
Background to the Gap
Analysis
The assessment, entitled
The Emissions Gap Report: Are the Copenhagen
Accord pledges sufficient to limit global
warming to 2 or 1.5°C?, is the work
of over 30 researchers from 25 centres in
countries including Australia, Austria,
Belgium, Brazil, China, Denmark, Germany,
India, Japan, Mexico, the Netherlands, New
Zealand, Switzerland, the United Kingdom
and the United States.
It builds on work carried
out in the wake of the UN climate change
convention meeting in Copenhagen while also
assessing the prospects and pathways for
the even tougher target of keeping a global
temperatures rise to 1.5 degrees Celsius
or under over the century.
The report also assesses
in an annex the individual pledges of more
than a dozen key countries ranging from
India to Russia and the United States.
The various scenarios
include estimated emissions in 2020 if nations
were to fully implement their most ambitious
pledges versus the emissions in 2020 if
nations meet only their minimum targets.
Many developing countries
before, during and after Copenhagen and
including South Africa, Indonesia and Mexico,
have made pledges which are conditional
on the action of others - in particular
the provision of international climate finance.
Meanwhile, the European
Union has a target of a 20 per cent emissions
reduction but has stated it is prepared
to go to a 30 per cent cut if others follow.
Canada has stated that it will follow the
United States whose 17 per cent emissions
reduction pledge is dependent on legislation
being passed.
In addition, the report
underlines the importance of ensuring 'strict'
rules regarding the accounting for Land
Use, Land Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF)
and the use of surplus emissions units are
addressed. It finds that the rules governing
these issues can have almost as big an impact
as the headline pledges. If the rules are
not set right, the pledges can be undermined.
Key Findings from the
Report
Studies show that emissions levels of approximately
44 gigatonnes of CO2 equivalent (range of
39 to 44) in 2020 would be consistent with
a likely chance of limiting warming to 2
degrees Celsius.
Under business-as-usual
projections, global emissions could reach
56 gigatonnes of CO2 equivalent (range of
54 to 60) in 2020;
If the lowest ambition
pledges were implemented, in a 'lenient'
fashion, emissions could be slightly lower
at 53 gigatonnes of CO2 equivalent (range
of 52 to 57), leaving a significant gap
of 9 gigatonnes;
However, a set of policy options are available
in the negotiations that could reduce the
gap substantially:
Moving to higher ambition,
conditional pledges;
Adopting rules that
avoid a net increase in emissions from 'lenient'
LULUCF accounting and the use of surplus
emissions units;
Avoiding the impact
of factors such as the 'double counting'
of offsets will also be important to limit
the size of the gap;
If all of the above
policy options were to be taken, emissions
in 2020 could be as low as 49 gigatonnes
of CO2 equivalent, reducing the size of
the gap from business-as-usual by almost
60 per cent - down to 5 gigatonnes of CO2
equivalent;
The studies show that
it is feasible to bridge the remaining gap
through more ambitious domestic actions,
some of which could be supported by international
climate finance;
With or without a gap,
the assessment clearly shows that steep
emissions reduction rates are needed post-2020
in order to keep our chances of limiting
warming to 2 degrees Celsius;
In order to meet a 1.5
degree Celsius target, emissions post-2020
will have to fall even faster - by perhaps
4 to 5 per cent annually- and become negative
around 2050.
"This unprecedented
partnership of climate modelers makes one
clear and unequivocal point - keeping climate
change within manageable limits is do-able.
But the window for cost effective action
is narrowing with every year of delay. Cancun
represents the next opportunity to close
the gaps and keep that window open as the
world works towards a new international
treaty," said Mr. Steiner.
Notes to Editors
A Summary of the Emissions
Gap report will be available on www.unep.org
Additional quotations
Paula Lehtomäki,
Finland's Minister of the Environment said:
"This report confirms the findings
we have heard from most individual scientific
studies throughout this year - implementation
of Copenhagen pledges is crucial, but not
enough to reach our common goal. In Cancun
we should therefore put our differences
aside and start working in order to make
progress in the negotiations. An ideal outcome
should include anchoring the Copenhagen
pledges and a Decision on Reducing Emissions
from Deforestation and Forest Degradation,
REDD+."
"The UNEP report
shows that despite some progress the world
still needs to go further and faster in
cutting emissions - and that includes the
EU which must accept a more ambitious goal,
of a 30% cut in emissions by 2020. Taking
action now isn't only right for our climate,
but it'll be cheaper in the long run than
having to catch up by doing more after 2020."
Connie Hedegaard, European
Commissioner for Climate Action said: "This
report shows that the Copenhagen Accord,
if fully implemented, means substantial
action. However, we need to be more ambitious
if we want to keep global warming under
the important threshold of 2°C. First,
in Cancun we must anchor the Copenhagen
pledges in the United Nations negotiations,
then we have a basis to build upon. At the
same time, we need to address remaining
weaknesses (LULUCF accounting rules and
AAU surplus) which could seriously undermine
the integrity of post-2012 climate action.
In Copenhagen leaders said, A: We must stay
below the 2*C. They also said, B: We share
a co-responsibility. Now UNEP shows how
crucial it is that countries follow up with
C: Delivering the necessary targets."
Chris Huhne, UK Energy
and Climate Change Secretary said: "The
UNEP report shows that despite some progress
the world still needs to go further and
faster in cutting emissions ? and that includes
the EU which must accept a more ambitious
goal, of a 30% cut in emissions by 2020.
Taking action now isn't only right for our
climate, but it'll be cheaper in the long
run than having to catch up by doing more
after 2020. At Cancun, the UK's pushing
to include the Copenhagen mitigation pledges
in the formal UN process so they can be
properly considered."
Niklas Höhne, Director,
Energy and Climate Policy at Ecofys in Germany
and one of the lead authors of the Emissions
Gap Report, said: "The report provides
clarity on the options that countries have
in Cancun to reach an agreement that is
compatible with limiting temperature increase
to 2°C or 1.5°C. Countries can clarify
in Cancun the status of their emission reduction
proposals. The ambiguity and conditionality
of some of the proposals made the assessment
difficult."
Joeri Rogelj, researcher
at the ETH Zurich and one of the lead authors
of the Emissions Gap Report, said: "The
message resounding from this report is unambiguous
and clear: the current level of ambition
for 2020 is not consistent with limiting
global temperature increase to below 2°C
with a high probability. Despite the many
uncertainties and differing interpretations
of how greenhouse gas mitigation policies
will be implemented in the future, current
science shows that countries should strengthen
their national mitigation ambitions for
2020, and, by doing so, laying the groundwork
for a steep decrease in emission after 2020."
Jules Kortenhorst, CEO
of the European Climate Foundation, said:
"This report, co-authored by the world's
leading scientists on this topic, gives
two resounding messages. First, that the
negotiations matter. The rules that countries
negotiate to govern these pledges matters
almost as much as the headline numbers themselves.
The pledges can be undermined by lenient
accounting rules. Second, that there is
still more to do. Like the recent IEA report
and others, it is clear that all countries
need to increase their ambition if we are
to safeguard our planet's health for our
children."
Kelly Levin, Senior
Research Associate at the World Resources
Institute, Washington DC and one of the
lead authors of the Emissions Gap Report,
said: "As this report shows, we are
clearly on a dangerous emissions pathway
and need more aggressive action to slow
down the Earth's rising temperatures,"
said Kelly Levin, a senior associate at
the World Resources Institute, and a contributor
to the report. "Negotiators need to
come to Cancun armed with a commitment to
robust accounting rules and to move ahead
with ambitious emission reduction pledges
to close the gap between what's needed and
where we're currently headed."
Acknowledgements
The United Nations Environment
Programme (UNEP) would like to thank the
Steering Committee, all the lead and contributing
authors, and the Secretariat for their contribution
to the development of this report. Organisations
are given below for identification purposes
only.
Steering Committee Members:
Joseph Alcamo, Chair (UNEP), Kilaparti Ramakrishna
(UNEP), Bert Metz (European Climate Foundation),
Suzana Kahn Ribeiro (COPPE, Federal University
of Rio de Janeiro), Anand Patwardhan (Indian
Institute of Technology Bombay), Adrian
Fernandez (Instituto Nacional de Ecologia,
Mexico) and Julia Martinez (Instituto Nacional
de Ecologia, Mexico).
Lead Authors: Michel
den Elzen (PBL Netherlands Environmental
Assessment Agency), William Hare (Potsdam
Institute for Climate Impact Research),
Niklas Höhne (Ecofys), Kelly Levin
(World Resources Institute), Jason Lowe
(Met Office, Hadley Center), Keywan Riahi
(International Institute for Applied Systems
Analysis), Joeri Rogelj (ETH Zurich), Elizabeth
Sawin (Climate Interactive), Chris Taylor
(Grantham Research Institute, LSE), Detlef
van Vuuren (PBL Netherlands Environmental
Assessment Agency), Murray Ward (Global
Climate Change Consultants).
Contributing Authors:
Valentina Bosetti (Fondazione Eni Enrico
Mattei), Claudine Chen (Potsdam Institute
for Climate Impact Research), Rob Dellink
(Organisation for Economic Co-operation
and Development),, Jørgen Fenhann
(UNEP Risø), Claudio Gesteira (COPPE,
Federal University of Rio de Janeiro), Tatsuya
Hanaoka (National Institute for Environmental
Studies), Mikiko Kainuma (National Institute
for Environmental Studies), Jiang Kejun
(Energy Research Institute), Emanuele Massetti
(Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei), Ben Matthews
(UCLouvain, Centre for Earth and Climate
Research), Caspar Olausson (Danish Energy
Agency), Brian O'Neill (National Center
for Atmospheric Research), Nicola Ranger
(Grantham Research Institute, LSE), Fabian
Wagner (International Institute for Applied
Systems Analysis), Zhao Xiusheng (Tsinghua
University).
Secretariat: Ramzi Elias,
Project Manager (European Climate Foundation),
Maria Blazogiannaki (European Climate Foundation),
Harsha Dave (UNEP), Ernest Imbamba (UNEP),
