Del| Since 1999 researchers
at the National Environmental Research Institute
(NERI), Aarhus University, have received
blood and tissue samples from minimum ten
of the polar bears caught by hunters from
the East Greenland village of Scoresbysund
(Ittoqqortoormiit) within their allowed
quota.
WHEN THE LIGHT RETURNS IN MID-FEBRUARY THE
HUNTERS FROM SCORESBYSUND BEGIN THEIR TRADITIONAL
HUNT FOR POLAR BEARS. THIS YEAR THE QUOTA
COMPRISES 35 BEARS FROM WHICH NERI HOPES
TO OBTAIN SAMPLES. PHOTO: RUNE DIETZ/NERI
Since 1999 researchers at the National Environmental
Research Institute (NERI), Aarhus University,
have received blood and tissue samples from
minimum ten of the polar bears caught by
hunters from the East Greenland village
of Scoresbysund (Ittoqqortoormiit) within
their allowed quota. The hunters in Greenland
have an annual quota for their traditional
hunt for polar bears, and this year the
quota for the municipality of Ittoqqortoormiit
is 35 animals.
Actually, the taking
of polar bear samples in East Greenland
started as far back as 1983 in cooperation
with the Greenland Institute of National
Resources, implying that the researchers
have at their availability unique samples
in an unparalled long time series.
The samples have shown
that the polar bears of East Greenland have
the highest – and over the years – increasing
levels of brominated flame retardants, perfluorinated
compounds and mercury measured in Arctic
animals, while the more conventional slowly
degradable environmental poisons (POPs)
such as PCB and DDT have shown a decrease
after the reduced production and use of
these substances since the mid-1970s.
The pollution is transported
with air and sea currents to the Arctic
from the industrialized areas of the globe.
It threatens both sea mammals at the top
of the food chain and the Inuit population
who to a wide extent base their existence
on the catch of sea mammals. General health,
including the immune system and reproduction,
is threatened, as is documented by research
conducted at NERI and by researchers from
other countries.
Effect studies during
12 years
During the past 12 years NERI researchers
have annually undertaken effect studies
on the polar bears at Scoresbysund, the
only area in the Arctic where such effect
studies have been conducted continuously
over time. The polar bear population here
is the one most intensively investigated
relative to health and the damaging effects
of environmental pollutants. The NERI researchers
have - via their cooperation in AMAP (Arctic
Monitoring and Assessment Program) – an
obligation to undertake this research as
it is the most highly polluted area and
an area allowing sampling through hunting;
this is not possible at Svalbard where the
polar bear is protected.
In the coming weeks
the researchers will intensify their sampling
from the polar bears in East Greenland.
The sampling will - if possible - comprise
also living tissue from, for instance, the
liver, kidneys, the suprarenal gland and
the thyroid gland that are to be preserved
in liquid nitrogen and in a special RNA-preserving
solution, RNAlaterTM, for subsequent studies
of the degradation by polar bears of the
environmental pollutants, supplemented by
laboratory studies of the immune and hormone
systems. Such a sampling is a huge challenge
as tissue samples must be taken and preserved
within 30 minutes after the killing of the
animal.
The research is undertaken
within the framework of the projects ARCTIC
(Advanced Research on Contaminant Transfer,
Impact and Consequences) and BearHealth,
financed by the Environmental Protection
Agency's Dancea-programme, the Commission
for Scientific Investigations in Greenland
and the Prince Albert II of Monaco Foundation.
The results are to be
applied by the Danish Environmental Protection
Agency in continued international and national
initiatives to limit the emission of POPs
to the atmosphere and the oceans. Moreover,
it can be used in the future AMAP-collaboration
and the work conducted by the IUCN polar
bear expert group.
Extensive logistics
operation
Together with colleagues from Denmark, USA,
Canada and Norway NERI-researchers, professor
Rune Dietz, senior scientist Christian Sonne
and PhD-student Thea Østergaard Bechshøft,
will be based in the closed down school
of the small village Kap Tobin (Uunarteq)
five kilometres south of Scoresbysund. The
village was abandoned 5 years ago, and while
some of the houses are used in summer, the
school and its oil heater have been left
unused since the building was abandoned.
The researchers will bring generators to
restart the old heater and to create power
for their sampling equipment.
33 containers with technical
sampling equipment have been forwarded from
Denmark to Kap Scoresbysund. Part of it
arrived already last summer by ship, while
the other part was recently forwarded by
airplane to the nearby small airport at
Constable Pynt, and from there by helicopter.
Six containers with liquid nitrogen were
forwarded only a few days ago from NERI
in Roskilde.
The logistics operation
is very extensive and complicated for the
NERI-researchers in the sparsely populated
and rough landscape of eastern Greenland.
The equipment from Scoresbysund should have
been brought over the ice on the fjord to
Kap Tobin, but a few weeks ago the ice broke
up leaving eight hunters and their dogs
adrift. Fortunately, all hunters returned
safely back on land. However, the ice situation
has not improved, and the equipment cannot
be brought over land on snow scooters due
to too limited snowfall in the area.
The researchers have
arranged the transport of equipment to Kap
Tobin themselves, and the plan implied the
use of snow scooters and sledges.
“We will have to wait
and see if snow will fall to allow land
transport, alternatively we must use helicopter,”
says professor Rune Dietz, who is now on
his way to Kap Tobin with his colleagues
where they will stay until 11 March.
“Our aim is to extend
the existing effect studies of environmental
poisons on polar bears by adding more samples,
from other pars of the animals as well.
We will take as many samples as possible,
including a full polar bear skin to investigate
hormones and minute variations in the level
of mercury in polar bear fur hairs. In an
earlier study we have described the development
in mercury concentrations in polar bears
since the year 1300,” says Rune Dietz.
If lucky, the researchers
may participate in an actual hunt and quickly
take samples from a bear to be preserved
in liquid nitrogen.
The trip also includes
two film units: the British film company
Windfall Films, which works with anatomic
series from all over the world and is sub-supplier
to British TV channels and National Geographic,
and DK4's TV host and nature photographer
Steen Andersen.
Professor Rune Dietz
relates the events of the three-week field
trip in his blog at http://www.dmu.dk/en/blogs/dietz/
No. 818: Assessment
of the impact of alternative regulations
of the sulphur content in maritime fuel
Olesen, H.R., Ellermann, T., Christensen,
J.H. 2011: Assessment of the impact of alternative
regulations of the sulphur content in maritime
fuel. National Environmental Research Institute,
Aarhus University. 42 pp. – NERI Technical
Report No. 818.
Summary
In 2009, on behalf of the Danish Environmental
Protection Agency, the National Environmental
Research Institute at Aarhus University
carried out a study to assess the contribution
from ships to air pollution in Denmark (Olesen
et al., 2009). The study included an assessment
of the contribution from ship traffic to
the air pollution load for the three years
2007, 2011 and 2020. The computations for
the year of 2007 were based on actual data,
while computations for the years 2011 and
2020 were based on assumed scenarios for
the future emissions from ships and land-based
sources.
The current study is
an extension of the previous in order to
examine certain specific issues in more
detail. It is based on the same data, computer
models and assumptions. However, the geographical
area of interest is extended to comprise
Scandinavia and not just Denmark as in the
previous study. The level of detail is highest
for the region near Denmark.
Several variants of
projections for ship emissions are considered
for the years between 2011 and 2020. For
landbased sources only one set of projections
has been used in all calculations, which
is the same as used in the previous study.
Thus, for land-based sources it has been
assumed that new and reduced national emissions
ceilings will be adopted in EU for 2020.
The negotiations concerning the new emission
ceilings have been postponed, and currently
it is uncertain how large the future reductions
of the land-based emission will be. However,
this is not critical to the objective of
the current study, which is to examine the
effects of certain variations in ship emissions.
The North Sea and the
Baltic Sea are appointed Sulphur Emission
Control Areas (SECA), where the maximum
allowed sulphur content in fuel is reduced
over time in a stepwise fashion, according
to a set of requirements adopted by the
International Maritime Organization, IMO.
In 2011 the maximum content of sulphur in
heavy fuel is 1%, while in 2020 the maximum
level will be 0.1%. Ship owners have the
option of implementing alternative measures
(scrubbers) if they have similar effect
on pollution.
The current study has
been carried out on request of the Danish
Shipowners Association, who requested
an analysis of the impact of certain alternative
temporal profiles for the regulation of
sulphur content in maritime fuel. The study
compares different ways to proceed in the
transition from the present level of maximum
1% sulphur in maritime fuel to a maximum
level of 0.1% in 2020. All profiles have
the same start and end values for sulphur
content in respectively 2011 and 2020, but
they differ in path for the intermediate
time period. The following profiles are
considered:
The Base profile. In
2010 the maximum sulphur content in heavy
fuel oil is reduced to 1%, and in 2015 it
is further reduced to 0.1%. This corresponds
to the regulations currently in force.
Postponement profile:
As the accepted regulations until 2015,
where the maximum sulphur content is reduced
to 0.5%. In 2020 the maximum sulphur content
is reduced further to 0.1%. Thus, the profile
implies a substantial reduction to one half
of the 2010 level in 2015, but postponement
of the full reduction until 2020.
Balanced profile: As
the accepted regulations until 2012, where
the maximum sulphur content is reduced to
0.5%. In 2018 the maximum sulphur content
is reduced to 0.1%.
Mixed profile: Certain
ship routes are allowed to follow the postponement
profile (0.5% sulphur after 2015), while
the remaining ship traffic follows the accepted
regulations (0.1% sulphur after 2015).
Based on emission inventories
for the previous project, but modified to
reflect the above profiles, model calculations
to assess air pollution concentration levels
have been carried out with the model DEHM
(Danish Eulerian Hemispheric Model), which
describes transport, chemical and physical
processes and dispersion of air pollution.
DEHM is capable of computing air pollution
concentrations for a large number of substances.
The content of sulphur
in maritime fuel has an effect on air pollution
with sulphur dioxide (SO2) and fine particles
(PM2.5). Accordingly, the consequences of
the alternative profiles for sulphur regulation
have been examined in terms of the concentration
levels for sulphur dioxide and fine particles.
Adverse health effects are primarily related
to PM2.5 concentrations, which are thus
of particular interest.
In studies of health
effects it is a widely used crude assumption
that health outcomes such as the number
of lost life years to a first approximation
vary linearly with PM2.5 concentrations.
It is outside the scope of the current study
to carry out complete calculations of the
health effects of ship traffic. However,
a relative estimate of the health effects
of the various scenarios for a specific
location can be obtained by comparing time
averaged PM2.5 concentrations for the various
profiles.
In order to interpret
the results it is necessary to know that
a distinction is made between various types
of fine particles. Primary particles exist
as particles immediately after they have
left the source; the emission of primary
particles decreases somewhat if the sulphur
content in fuel is reduced. On the other
hand secondary particles were not 'born'
as particles, but are created from gases,
which undergo chemical transformation during
transport – a process that continues for
several hours or days after the pollution
has left the source. Thus, sulphur dioxide
which is emitted from ships will result
in the formation of secondary fine particles
after a while. However, the formation of
secondary particles is a complicated process
and many other substances than sulphur dioxide
can contribute to the formation of particles.
For this reason a substantial reduction
in sulphur emission will not necessarily
have any great impact on the formation of
particles, and it is necessary with comprehensive
calculations – as those presented here –
to assess the effect of reduced sulphur
content in fuel.
Atmospheric dispersion
models are only able to describe a part
of the particles found in the atmosphere.
In order to make this clear we use here
the designation mPM2.5 (modelled PM2.5)
for the part of fine particles which can
be modelled. mPM2.5 includes the primary
particles and the secondary inorganic particles.
However, it is not possible with customary
models to describe the particles which are
secondarily formed from organic compounds,
and which are, i.a., emitted from vegetation.
The results of calculations
for the various profiles can be summarised
as follows.
Considered as an average
over the ten year period 2011-2020 the two
profiles for sulphur regulations Base profile
and Balanced profile result in almost identical
concentrations for the substances. The main
difference is the time development in the
trends, were the Balanced profile gives
stepwise reductions in 2012 and 2018, while
the Base profile gives a single larger reduction
in 2015.
The Postponement profile
results in slightly larger ten-year average
concentrations compared to the Base profile
and the Balanced profile. According to the
Postponement profile the sulphur content
is only reduced to 0.5% in 2015, while the
full reduction to 0.1% is postponed to 2020.
In the Copenhagen area the effect of the
Postponement profile is that the concentration
level of fine particles (mPM2.5) will be
0.04 mg/m3 higher than for the Base profile.
This difference amounts to 6% of the contribution
from ships, or to 0.8% of the contribution
from all sources. It should be noted that
these values refer to the 'urban background
level' in Copenhagen, i.e. at some distance
from busy streets. In busy streets the relative
contribution from ships will be smaller.
In the Mixed profile
29 specific shipping routes have been assumed
to follow the postponement profile (implying
0.5% sulphur from 2015 to 2019), while the
remaining fleet follows the accepted regulations.
The routes in question were appointed by
the Danish Shipowners Association,
and are indicated in Appendix A. The average
concentrations over the ten year period
2011-2020 lie between those of the Base
profile and the Postponement profile. Compared
to the total pollution level the differences
between the Base profile and the Mixed profile
are small, but locally it is possible to
distinguish effects on the concentrations
due to the higher sulphur content used at
some of the shipping routes. For example
this can be observed in the area between
Rødby and Puttgarden.
In general the differences
between the profiles stand out most clearly
for concentration levels of SO2, while they
are less pronounced for primary PM2.5, and
smallest for mPM2.5. This is caused by the
fact that SO2 emissions are entirely dependent
on sulphur content in fuel and that the
ship emissions are a major source of SO2.
Formation of primary particles does also
depend on sulphur content, but to a smaller
extent. The contribution to mPM2.5 from
ships is due not only to sulphur emissions,
but also to NOX emissions Therefore, changes
in fuel sulphur content lead to quite modest
changes in mPM2.5.
The share of the concentrations
that originate from ship traffic is generally
higher for SO2 than for particles. For instance
in Copenhagen, about 19% of the total concentrations
of SO2 can be attributed to ship traffic,
while this is only the case for around 13%
of mPM2.5, and only 3% of primary PM2.5.
These numbers refer to the average for the
period 2011-2020.
The most pronounced
difference between the profiles occurs for
SO2 in areas with much ship traffic. However,
this difference should be seen in light
of the low concentrations calculated for
SO2. The ten year average of the contribution
from ships to SO2 concentration in Copenhagen
(about 0.1 mg/m3) is less than 0.1% of the
EU limit value for the diurnal concentration
(125 mg/m3). Although the averaging times
are not comparable this illustrates that
the level of concentrations calculated for
SO2 is low.
The study shows that
there are large spatial variations in the
impact of the different scenarios. For the
cities considered the largest difference
between the scenarios is seen for coastal
cities where the ship traffic is dense.
The largest variation in health impact due
to the different scenarios will therefore
be in the major cities with high density
ship traffic such as Copenhagen and Gothenburg.
