Brussels/London, 26
May 2011 - Dramatic differences exist between
many countries in Europe and their consumption
of natural resources such as fossil fuels,
biomass and minerals, a new report by the
UN Environment Programme (UNEP) shows.
While some European
countries appear to show some decoupling
of rates of economic growth from rates of
resource consumption, others do not as a
result of a variety of developmental and
demographic factors.
The findings, launched
today during Green Week in Brussels, underline
the challenge facing the European Union
under its recently adopted Thematic Strategy
on the Sustainable Use of Natural Resources
under the 6th Environmental Action Program.
The report shows that
on average the annual per capita consumption
of natural resources - known as the 'metabolic
rate'- in Europe is around 13 tons per person.
However, for some countries
such as Finland the metabolic rate is closer
to 20 tons, or around six tons per person,
higher than countries such as Germany or
Austria with comparable incomes.
Many of the recent members
to the EU also show relatively high rates
of natural resource consumption, despite
having far lower per capita incomes, for
example Hungary and Poland.
The findings are contained
in a report by the UNEP-hosted International
Resource Panel entitled Decoupling: Natural
Resource Use and Environmental Impacts from
Economic Growth.
Marina Fischer-Kowalski,
one of the report's lead authors based at
the Alpen-Adria University in Austria, said:
"The findings in many ways mirror the
global situation. Industrialized countries
with high population densities have on average
metabolic rates of 13 tons per capita whereas
those with low population density - for
example Finland, the United States and Australia
- can have a metabolic rate up to twice
that, although income and material comfort
do not substantially differ".
Low population densities,
allied to factors such as living in colder
climates, can increase fossil fuel use for
cars and for heating homes and offices.
Some European countries,
including many of the recent members, have
also experienced sharp growth in construction
and infrastructure expansion, which in turn
has increased the use of natural resources
such as construction materials and energy.
While this report does
not assess consumption rates and environmental
impacts linked with imports of commodities
and finished goods such as clothes or cars,
some European metabolic rates can be explained
in terms of global trade.
The average person in
the United Kingdom, for example, appears
to consume only around 10 tons of natural
resources annually when compared with someone
from Belgium estimated to have a metabolic
rate of around 16 tons.
"But a lot of this
can perhaps be explained by the de-industralization
that has occurred in the UK in recent decades
with a move away from domestic manufacturing
to service sectors," said Dr Fischer-Kowalski.
"What the figures
do not reflect is those products, such as
clothes or cars that were once part of the
UK's domestic industrial produce, that are
now in large part imported from overseas.
Meanwhile, many European countries are also
big importers today of commodities such
as minerals and foodstuffs with the resources
used to produce them and the environmental
impacts occurring on Continents such as
Asia and Africa," she added.
The report notes that
whereas a large slice of raw materials are
imported into industrialized countries when
compared with domestic extraction, the converse
is the case for least developed and developing
countries where raw material exports outstrip
imports by a factor of almost three to one.
Decoupling - the Global
Picture
The report says that globally and by 2050,
humanity could devour an estimated 140 billion
tons of minerals, ores, fossil fuels and
biomass per year - three times its current
appetite - unless the economic growth rate
is "decoupled" from the rate of
natural resource consumption.
Developed countries
citizens consume an average of 16 tons of
those four key resources per capita (ranging
up to 40 or more tons per person in some
developed countries). By comparison, the
average person in India today consumes four
tons per year.
With the growth of both
population and prosperity, especially in
developing countries, the prospect of much
higher resource consumption levels is "far
beyond what is likely sustainable"
if realized at all given finite world resources.
Already the world is
running out of cheap and high-quality sources
of some essential materials such as oil,
copper and gold, the supplies of which,
in turn, require ever-rising volumes of
fossil fuels and freshwater to produce.
Improving the rate of
resource productivity ("doing more
with less") faster than the economic
growth rate is the notion behind "decoupling"
to the extent of actually using less resources,
the panel says. That goal, however, demands
an urgent rethink of the links between resource
use and economic prosperity, buttressed
by a massive investment in technological,
financial and social innovation, to at least
freeze per capita consumption in wealthy
countries and help developing nations follow
a more sustainable path.
The trend towards urbanization
may help as well, experts note, since cities
allow for economies of scale and more efficient
service provision.
"Decoupling makes
sense on all the economic, social and environmental
dials," says UN Under Secretary-General
Achim Steiner, UNEP's Executive Director.
"People believe
environmental 'bads' are the price we must
pay for economic 'goods.' However, we cannot,
and need not, continue to act as if this
trade-off is inevitable," he says.
"Decoupling is part of a transition
to a low carbon, resource efficient Green
Economy needed in order to stimulate growth,
generate decent kinds of employment and
eradicate poverty in a way that keeps humanity's
footprint within planetary boundaries."
"Next year's Rio+20
meeting represents an opportunity to accelerate
and scale-up these 'green shoots' of a Green
Economy, which are emerging across the developed
and developing world."
The new report from
UNEP's International Resource Panel, the
fourth in a series, was launched in New
York at the annual meeting of the UN Commission
on Sustainable Development, on 12 May.
Today, during Green
Week, some of the Europe-findings are focused
in more detail.
Both events precede
the global UN Conference on Sustainable
Development 2012 meeting (or "Rio+20"
in Rio de Janeiro 4-6 June 2012) with its
two central themes of a Green Economy in
the context of sustainable development and
poverty eradication, and achieving agreement
on an international framework for sustainable
development.
While the report doesn't
offer detailed policy and technology options
- that's for later reports - it says technologies
that have helped humanity extract ever-greater
quantities of natural resources need to
be re-directed to more efficient ways of
using them.
Global average annual
per capita resource consumption in year
2000 was 8 to 10 tons, about double the
rate of 1900. In 2000, the average rate
in industrialized countries (home to one-fifth
of world population) was roughly twice the
global average and four or five times that
of the poorest developing countries.
Global (and national)
consumption rates per capita are calculated
by dividing total world (and national) extractions
of minerals, ores, fossil fuels and biomass
by world (and national) population figures.
Rapidly expanding international
trade, however, obscures responsibility
for resource consumption and associated
environmental impacts, the authors note.
Over the past century,
pollution controls and other measures have
reduced the environmental impacts of economic
growth. And, thanks to innovations in manufacturing,
product design and energy use - aided by
the rising number of people living more
efficient lifestyles in cities - the global
economy has grown faster than resource consumption
growth.
Still, those improvements
have only been relative. In absolute terms
- with population growth, continuing high
levels of consumption in the industrialized
countries, and increased demand for material
goods, particularly in China, India, Brazil
and other quickly emerging economies - total
resource use grew eight-fold, from 6 billion
tons in 1900 to 49 billion tons in 2000.
It is now estimated at up to 59 billion
tons.
Decoupling is occurring
but "at a rate that is insufficient
to meet the needs of an equitable and sustainable
society," the report says. Between
1980 and 2002, the resources required per
US$1,000 of economic output fell from 2.1
to 1.6 tons.
The report details progress
in four countries where government policy
supports decoupling. Germany and Japan have
both demonstrated the possibilities.
* Germany has established
goals for energy and resource productivity
- aiming to double both by 2020. There are
also ambitious 2020 targets for meeting
heating, electricity and other energy needs
from renewable sources, and the target of
a 30 per cent cut in carbon dioxide emissions
by that same year.
* Japan is committed
to becoming a "Sustainable Society"
focused on low carbon, the reduction, reuse
and recycling of materials, and harmony
with nature. The flow of materials is carefully
accounted. Japan's measures "are probably
the most advanced examples (of) increasing
resource productivity and minimizing negative
environmental impacts in practice,"
the report states
* South Africa's Constitution
requires "ecologically sustainable
development and use of natural resources."
Policies explicitly call for "resource
and impact decoupling" and greenhouse-gas
emission cuts of 30 to 40 per cent by 2050.
Progress, though, is undermined by a growing
reliance on exports of coal and other minerals.
Its carbon intensity is the world's highest
and emissions per person are double the
global average.
* China aims to build
an "ecological civilization,"
with resource and environmental concerns
top priorities. It has created decoupling
indicators and fixed mandatory targets,
including a 20 per cent reduction of energy
intensity and has run nationwide energy
saving and pollution-reduction programs.
A National Action Plan on Climate Change
targets a 40 to 45 per cent reduction in
carbon dioxide intensity by 2020.
China, in particular,
is a global test case, "because it
wants to continue its rapid economic growth
but use resources more sustainably,"
the report says.
"The measures that
China introduces to reconcile these objectives
will be of crucial significance for every
other developing country with similar policy
intentions."
The report emphasizes
that cutting the rate of resource consumption
and impacts is possible, in theory, if national
economic improvement is defined in terms
other than physical growth.
"It is time to
recognize the limits to the natural resources
available to support human development and
economic growth," the authors say.
Decoupling "will
require significant changes in government
policies, corporate behaviour, and consumption
patterns by the public. Innovation, even
radical innovation, will be required."
Notes to Editors
The report describes
three scenarios whereby developed and developing
countries consume resources equitably: 'convergence
by 2050'
Scenario 1: Business
as usual in developed countries, convergence
by others
Per capita resource
consumption in the industrialized countries
remains stable, as it has for the past three
decades, and the rest of the world continues
the current trend to catch up. This path
leads to annual total consumption of 140
billion tons of minerals, ores, fossil fuels
and biomass, or 16 tons per capita for a
population of 9 billion, by 2050. Says the
report: this "represents an unsustainable
future in terms of both resource use and
emissions, probably exceeding all possible
measures of available resources and assessments
of limits to the capacity to absorb impacts."
Scenario 2: moderate
contraction of consumption in developed
countries, convergence by others
Industrialized nations
halve average per capita consumption to
8 tons and other countries rise to that
level. The result: total world consumption
of 70 billion tons in 2050. "This scenario
presupposes substantial structural change
amounting to a new pattern of industrial
production and consumption that would be
quite different from the traditional resource-intensive
Western industrial model," the report
says.
This scenario results
in global consumption of 70 billion tons
by 2050 - about 40% more annual resource
extraction than in 2000. Average emissions
of carbon dioxide per capita would rise
almost 50% to 1.6 tons per capita and global
CO2 emissions would more than double.
Absolute cuts in consumption
- well short of the scale required in scenario
two - have occurred in just a handful of
countries, and in some cases only because
they have lowered their per capita consumption
rate by importing resources from elsewhere.
Scenario 3: tough contraction
of consumption in developed countries, converging
with others
Industrialized nations
reduce per capita consumption by two thirds
and other nations remain at current rates,
resulting in a global per capita consumption
rate of 6 tons and total world consumption
of about 50 billion tons, the same as in
year 2000.
This scenario would
be so restrictive, and so unappealing to
politicians, that it "can hardly be
addressed as a possible strategic goal,"
the authors admit.
Yet, even such tough
measures would maintain global consumption
at levels many scientists still consider
unsustainable. Average CO2 per capita emissions
would be reduced by roughly 40% to 0.75
tons/capita and global emissions would remain
constant at their 2000 level.
"These scenarios
challenge our current thinking and assumptions
about development," says the report.
"If investments in developing and developed
countries are made today that lock humanity
into a business-as-usual or moderately improved
resource intensive growth path, the risks
of running into ecological and supply constraints
will worsen."
"This finding has
spurred the International Resource Panel
to focus future reports on how to improve
resource productivity and find viable alternatives
for policy makers."
