NEW IPCC REPORT ADDRESSES RISKS OF EXTREME EVENTS AND DISASTERS

Published: Nov 23, 2011 Last modified: Nov 23, 2011
It is "virtually certain" that warm weather extreme events will become more frequent this century, according to a new summary report published by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) on 18 November. In order to explore ways of adapting to heatwaves and other extreme events potentially exacerbated in future by climate change, the IPCC has brought together a range of scientific and professional expertise.

The IPCC summary report, 'Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation', aimed to integrate expertise in climate science, disaster risk management and adaptation in order to explore reducing and managing the risks of extreme events and disasters in a changing climate.

The report evaluates the role of climate change in altering characteristics of extreme events, looking at a wide range of options used by institutions, organisations, and communities to reduce exposure and vulnerability to climate extremes while improving resilience. The report uses carefully calibrated language to describe the robustness of key findings, which depends on many factors such as the completeness of weather observations and the level of agreement between different climate models.
Findings from the summary report include:
It is virtually certain that increases in the frequency of warm daily temperature extremes and decreases in cold extremes will occur throughout the 21st Century on a global scale.

Authors cited a medium level of confidence that droughts will intensify over the coming century in southern Europe and the Mediterranean region, as well as central Europe and several other world regions.

It is likely that heavy precipitation will increase in the 21st century over many areas of the globe, including in winter in the northern mid-latitudes.

Projected precipitation and temperature changes imply changes in floods, although overall there is low confidence at the global scale that climate change will alter the magnitude or frequency of river related flooding. This uncertainty is due to limited evidence and the complexity of the causes of regional changes.

Economic losses from weather- and climate-related disasters vary from year to year and place to place, but overall have increased, authors said with a high level of confidence. They also expressed similar confidence in the fact that total economic losses from natural disasters are higher in developed countries; however economic losses expressed as a proportion of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) are higher in developing countries.

Deaths from natural disasters occur much more in developing countries (high level of confidence).
Economic losses from weather- and climate-related disasters have increased in the long-term, as people and economic assets have been increasingly exposed to risks. For example, more people are living where they may be adversely affected by disasters (high level of confidence).

There was a high level of agreement that "Many measures for managing current and future risks, when implemented effectively, make sense under a range of future climates". These "low regrets" measures include systems that warn people of impending disasters; changes in land use planning; sustainable land management; ecosystem management; improvements in health surveillance, water supplies, and drainage systems; development and enforcement of building codes; as well as better education and awareness.

Risk management works best when tailored to local circumstances. Combining local knowledge with additional scientific and technical expertise helps communities reduce their risk and adapt to climate change (robust evidence, high level of agreement).

In January 2011, the European Environment Agency (EEA) published a report which found that the frequency and damages from disasters had increased in Europe between 1998 and 2009.

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Industrial air pollution cost Europe up to €169 billion in 2009, EEA reveals

Published: Nov 24, 2011 Last modified: Nov 25, 2011
Air pollution from the 10,000 largest polluting facilities in Europe cost citizens between € 102 and 169 billion in 2009. This was one of the findings of a new report from the European Environment Agency (EEA) which analysed the costs of harm to health and the environment caused by air pollution. Half of the total damage cost (between € 51 and 85 billion) was caused by just 191 facilities.

Our analysis reveals the high cost caused by pollution from power stations and other large industrial plants. The estimated costs are calculated using the emissions reported by the facilities themselves. By using existing tools employed by policy-makers to estimate harm to health and the environment, we revealed some of the hidden costs of pollution. We cannot afford to ignore these issues.

Professor Jacqueline McGlade, EEA Executive Director
Our analysis reveals the high cost caused by pollution from power stations and other large industrial plants. The estimated costs are calculated using the emissions reported by the facilities themselves. By using existing tools employed by policy-makers to estimate harm to health and the environment, we revealed some of the hidden costs of pollution. We cannot afford to ignore these issues.

The report, 'Revealing the costs of air pollution from industrial facilities in Europe', provides a list of the individual facilities that contribute the most harm.

“Our analysis reveals the high cost caused by pollution from power stations and other large industrial plants,” Professor Jacqueline McGlade, EEA Executive Director, said.

“The estimated costs are calculated using the emissions reported by the facilities themselves. By using existing tools employed by policy-makers to estimate harm to health and the environment, we revealed some of the hidden costs of pollution. We cannot afford to ignore these issues”, added Professor McGlade.

The industrial facilities covered by the analysis include large power plants, refineries, manufacturing combustion and industrial processes, waste and certain agricultural activities. Emissions from power plants contributed the largest share of the damage costs (estimated at €66–112 billion). Other significant contributions to the overall damage costs came from production processes (€23–28 billion) and manufacturing combustion (€8–21 billion). Sectors excluded from the EEA analysis include transport, households and most agicultural activities – if these were included the cost of pollution would be even higher.

Key findings
Air pollution by the facilities covered by EEA’s analysis cost every European citizen approximately € 200-330 on average in 2009.
Countries such as Germany, Poland, the United Kingdom, France and Italy, where a high number of large facilities are located, contribute the most to the total damage costs. However, when damage costs are weighted in an attempt to reflect the productivity of national economies, the ordering of countries changes significantly. The emissions from countries such as Bulgaria, Romania, Estonia, Poland and the Czech Republic are then relatively more important with regard to the damage costs.

A small number of individual facilities cause the majority of damage costs. Three quarters of the total damage costs were caused by the emissions from just 622 industrial facilities – 6 % of the total number. The facilities with emissions associated with a high damage cost are in most cases some of the largest facilities in Europe which release the greatest amount of pollutants.
Carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions contribute the most to the overall damage costs, approximately €63 billion in 2009. Air pollutants, which contribute to acid rain and can cause respiratory problems - sulphur dioxide (SO2), ammonia (NH3), particulate matter (PM10) and nitrogen oxides (NOx) - were found to cause €38-105 billion of damage a year.

The report uses publicly-available data from the European Pollutant Release and Transfer Register (E-PRTR). The analysis builds on existing policy tools and methods, such as the methods developed under the EU’s Clean Air for Europe (CAFE) programme. Based on the different methodologies, it calculates a range of estimated damage costs arising from air pollutant releases reported by nearly 10 000 individual facilities to the E-PRTR.

The pollutants examined are regional air pollutants (NH3, NOx, PM10, SO2, volatile organic compounds (NMVOCs)), heavy metals (arsenic, cadmium, chromium, lead, mercury and nickel), organic micropollutants (benzene, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) and dioxins & furans), and CO2.

Certain aspects of harm to health and the environment are excluded from the scope of this study, such as the health and safety aspects associated with occupational exposure to air pollutants. For regional air pollutants for example, the model framework underpinning the assessment should be extended in the future to include aspects such as a valuation of ecological impacts and acid damage to culturally significant buildings and monuments. The recognised benefits of industrial facilities, including manufacturing products, employment and tax revenues, are not addressed in the report.