Published : Nov 21,
2012 Last modified : Nov 30, 2012 10:23
AM
Climate change is affecting all regions
in Europe, causing a wide range of impacts
on society and the environment. Further
impacts are expected in the future, potentially
causing high damage costs, according to
the latest assessment published by the European
Environment Agency today.
The report, ‘Climate
change, impacts and vulnerability in Europe
2012’ finds that higher average temperatures
have been observed across Europe as well
as decreasing precipitation in southern
regions and increasing precipitation in
northern Europe. The Greenland ice sheet,
Arctic sea ice and many glaciers across
Europe are melting, snow cover has decreased
and most permafrost soils have warmed.
Extreme weather events
such as heat waves, floods and droughts
have caused rising damage costs across Europe
in recent years. While more evidence is
needed to discern the part played by climate
change in this trend, growing human activity
in hazard-prone areas has been a key factor.
Future climate change is expected to add
to this vulnerability, as extreme weather
events are expected to become more intense
and frequent. If European societies do not
adapt, damage costs are expected to continue
to rise, according to the report.
Some regions will be
less able to adapt to climate change than
others, in part due to economic disparities
across Europe, the report says. The effects
of climate change could deepen these inequalities.
Jacqueline McGlade,
EEA Executive Director said: “Climate change
is a reality around the world, and the extent
and speed of change is becoming ever more
evident. This means that every part of the
economy, including households, needs to
adapt as well as reduce emissions.”
Observed climate change
and future projections – some key findings
The last decade (2002–2011)
was the warmest on record in Europe, with
European land temperature 1.3° C warmer
than the pre-industrial average. Various
model projections show that Europe could
be 2.5–4° C warmer in the later part
of the 21st Century, compared to the 1961–11000
average.
Heat waves have increased
in frequency and length, causing tens of
thousands of deaths over the last decade.
The projected increase in heat waves could
increase the number of related deaths over
the next decades, unless societies adapt,
the report says. However, cold-related deaths
are projected to decrease in many countries.
While precipitation
is decreasing in southern regions, it is
increasing in northern Europe, the report
says. These trends are projected to continue.
Climate change is projected to increase
river flooding, particularly in northern
Europe, as higher temperatures intensify
the water cycle. However, it is difficult
to discern the influence of climate change
in flooding data records for the past.
River flow droughts
appear to have become more severe and frequent
in southern Europe. Minimum river flows
are projected to decrease significantly
in summer in southern Europe but also in
many other parts of Europe to varying degrees.
The Arctic is warming
faster than other regions. Record low sea
ice was observed in the Arctic in 2007,
2011 and 2012, falling to roughly half the
minimum extent seen in the 1980s. Melting
of the Greenland ice sheet has doubled since
the 11000s, losing an average of 250 billion
tonnes of mass every year between 2005 and
2009. Glaciers in the Alps have lost approximately
two thirds of their volume since 1850 and
these trends are projected to continue.
Sea levels are rising,
raising the risk of coastal flooding during
storm events. Global average sea level has
risen by 1.7mm a year in the 20th century,
and by 3mm a year in recent decades. Future
projections vary widely, but it is likely
that 21st century sea-level rise will be
greater than during the 20th century. However
sea level rise at European coasts varies,
for example due to local land movement.
Besides heat-related
health impacts, other human health effects
are also important, the report says. Climate
change plays a part in the transmission
of certain diseases. For example, it allows
the tick species Ixodes ricinus to thrive
further north, while further warming may
make parts of Europe more suitable for disease-carrying
mosquitos and sandflies. The pollen season
is longer and arrives 10 days earlier than
50 years ago, also affecting human health.
Many studies have measured
widespread changes in plant and animal characteristics.
For example, plants are flowering earlier
in the year, while in freshwater phytoplankton
and zooplankton blooms are also appearing
earlier. Other animals and plants are moving
northward or uphill as their habitats warm.
Since the migration rate of many species
is insufficient to keep pace with the speed
of climate change, they could be pushed
towards extinction in the future.
While there may be less
water available for agriculture in southern
Europe, growing conditions may improve in
other areas. The growing season for several
crops in Europe has lengthened and this
is projected to continue, alongside the
expansion of warm-season crops into more
northerly latitudes. However the yield is
projected to fall for some crops due to
heat waves and droughts in central and southern
Europe.
As temperatures rise,
demand for heating has also fallen, saving
energy. However, this must be balanced against
higher energy demands for cooling during
hotter summers.
Background
The report is intended
to show the full extent of climate change
impacts across Europe, also informing the
European Commission’s European Adaptation
Strategy to be published in March 2013.
Moreover, the EEA will support the strategy
with an assessment of a selection of adaptation
actions across Europe, to be published in
early 2013.
The website Climate-ADAPT
includes a large amount of information intended
to assist in developing and implementing
climate change adaptation.
The report involved
approximately 50 authors. Some parts were
contributed by the European Centre for Disease
Prevention and Control.