Nairobi, 28 April 2015
- A cutting-edge technology, named Madingley,
has been released by Microsoft Research
and United Nations Environment Programme
World Conservation Monitoring Centre (UNEP-WCMC)
which could help scientists and policy makers
answer key environmental questions.
Microsoft's Computational
Science Lab and UNEP-WCMC, based in Cambridge
UK, have developed the first computer model
able to simulate how all organisms interact
on a global scale. The model creates a simulation
of life on Earth, following a set of basic
ecological tools found in the real world.
With the rapid degradation
of ecosystems worldwide, the ability to
predict the likely effects of human actions
on the natural world could prove vital the
maintenance of the goods and services it
provides, upon which we all depend. The
Madingley model is able to provide this
long-term, predictive and truly global insight
previously lacking in other models.
The Microsoft and UNEP-WCMC
team have highlighted the importance of
this technology as, unlike previous models,
it is able to assess and predict human impacts
on a diverse range of ecosystems. It can
be applied to any ecosystem, marine or terrestrial,
and can be applied at any scale from local
to global.
UN Under-Secretary-General
and UNEP Executive Director Achim Steiner
said, "Anthropogenic activities are
causing widespread degradation of ecosystems
worldwide, threatening the ecosystem services
upon which all life depends. Madingley is
an exciting new technology which offers
the scientific community and world leaders
a vital tool to anticipate how unsustainable
development pathways would affect the natural
world."
"The model is the
first to couple all of the key biological
processes and ecological theory that underpin
the life cycle and behaviour of living organisms,
from energy acquisition, to feeding metabolism,
reproduction, dispersal and earth. The tool
will improve our understanding of the causes
and impacts of degradation, helping scientists
and governments develop avoidance and mitigation
measures," he added.
The team initially simulated
the physical Earth with continents, oceans
and a global climate, before inserting digital
organisms. As the simulations progress over
time, scientists are able to observe and
assess how different types of organisms
interact with environmental niches and,
crucially, how they might be impacted by
a changing environment.
The Madingley Model
is open sourced. It is hoped that the scientific
community will dissect and improve the current
version. "Our model is a first working
version which will hopefully encourage other
scientists to become involved in developing
this, or analogous, global models of life"
said Drew Purves, Head of the Computational
Ecology and Environmental Science group
(CEES) and co-author of the initiative.
Scientists using the
Madingley Model will now be able to answer
crucial questions previously unanswerable.
They will, for example, be able to show
what will happen to an ecosystem if bees
become extinct and they will be able to
show decision makers how our world will
look if action is not taken to safeguard
our planet's future.
