UNEP Launches Peoples’ Climate Pledge Tracker

Copenhagen, 11 December 2009 People across the globe can track the proposals and plans of countries to combat climate change via an online 'climate pledge tracker', launched today by the UN Environment Programme (UNEP).

The 'tracker', which is being updated as new proposals are made during the UN climate convention meeting in Copenhagen, compares and consolidates all the national pledges made so far with the scientific goal of getting the world at or under a 2 degree Celsius rise compared to pre-industrial levels.

Experts estimate that what is needed is to bring emissions of greenhouse gases down to 44 billion tonnes (44Gt) of CO2 equivalent by 2020 in order to give the world a 50 percent chance of meeting that temperature target.

After 2020, emissions need to be cut to 16 billion tonnes (16 Gt) of CO2 equivalent in 2050. Meeting a 1.5 degree Celsius goal, which some countries are calling for, will require even more ambitious emissions reductions over the next 40 years.

Achim Steiner, UN Under-Secretary General and UNEP Executive Director, said: "The eyes of the world are on the UN climate convention conference in Copenhagen. With this tracker, everyone within the conference and beyond can from their office or living room monitor the ambition of governments to Seal a convincing Deal by 18 December."

The tracker currently has pledges and proposals from 25 countries plus the European Union's 27 member states. Eleven of the 25 countries are from developing economies ranging from China and India to Costa Rica and the Maldives. It includes recent proposals from countries such as South Africa, India and Kazakhstan.

The tracker currently estimates that if the most ambitious existing pledges were fully implemented, including with financial support for developing economies, the world might achieve emissions reductions of 47.5 billion tonnes by 2020.

This indicates a gap of around 3.5 billion tonnes which needs to be bridged by the 18 December when the climate convention conference is scheduled to end.

The figure, which has a margin of error of plus or minus two billion tonnes, is within the range of a study, released by Lord Stern and UNEP on 6 December, indicating that the gap is between 1 billion tonnes and five billion tonnes of CO2 equivalent.

It also supports a statement released today by the European Climate Foundation/ Climate Works/Project Catalyst and others including UNEP; the Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment and Ecofys, saying that the analysis by leading independent institutions point in the same direction an agreement that puts the world on track to limiting global warming to 2 degrees Celsius or lower is possible in Copenhagen.

The tracker, which will continue after Copenhagen, also looks at the emissions reduction pledges up to 2050 where scientists estimate that global greenhouse gas emissions need to be down to 16 billion tonnes (16 Gt) of C02 equivalent.
Notes to Editors:
The Climate Pledge Tracker can be accessed at www.unep.org/climatepledges
Nick Nuttall, UNEP Spokesperson and Head of Media

Copenhagen Must Deliver Emissions Cuts at or Beyond Current Proposals to Keep Below 2 Degrees

Joint Statement from the Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment, the United Nations Environment Programme, Ecofys, Climate Analytics, the Sustainability Institute, the European Climate Foundation and ClimateWorks.

Recent independent analyses of current mitigation proposals on the table in Copenhagen by Nicholas Stern, the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Ecofys, Climate Analytics, the Sustainability Institute (C-ROADS), the European Climate Foundation and ClimateWorks (Project Catalyst) all point to the same conclusion: the negotiations must deliver the high-end of current proposals, and stretch beyond them, if the world is to have a reasonable chance of containing warming to below 2°C above pre-industrial levels, or the 1.5°C goal of many developing nations.

Copenhagen, 9 December 2009 - There is a narrow window of opportunity to have the possibility of achieving the global political and scientific consensus of avoiding a global warming of more than 2°C above pre-industrial levels or the 1.5°C goal of 100 developing nations. The concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere is increasing everyday and, without significant reductions in emissions, will soon reach levels at which the consequent changes in the Earth's climate will have very serious, and potentially disastrous and irreversible, impacts.

Research papers and analysis released in the past few days by several of the leading independent authorities on the question have looked at the impact of the current proposals made by countries at the Copenhagen Climate Summit. While there are differences in the details of the findings, the overall messages from these studies are clear:

1. To have a reasonable chance of limiting global warming to 2°C, or lower,, action at the high-end of current proposals and beyond will be required. This means that the global deal needs a clear commitment to go significantly above the most ambitious targets currently under discussion, and hence stretch above those in the next ten days negotiations.

2. Such an agreement is possible; the levels of reduction required are both technically and economically feasible - what is required is the political will and leadership to lock-in these commitments in Copenhagen.

3. Achieving the high-end of the proposed reduction range, and beyond, will also require strong financial and technology support for developing countries.

4. If achieved, such an agreement would be a historic step forward and keep hope alive that the world can contain long-term global warming to below 2 or 1.5 degrees. If anything less than the high-end of current proposals plus significant additional reductions is achieved, then climate risks will be higher and it may not be possible to catch-up later - we may miss the window of opportunity.

5. But Copenhagen is only the beginning of a journey - even if the high-end of current proposals plus additional reductions are locked-in, more work will be required. Each of the studies show that a gap in mitigation may remain after Copenhagen against 2020 requirements. It is thus essential that a Copenhagen agreement also include a "review and strengthen" clause where countries review progress against the latest scientific evidence and continue to adjust their commitments accordingly; the first such review should end no later than 2015 and draw upon the next assessment of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, due for conclusion in 2014.

"A deal that puts us on the path to having a good chance of avoiding warming of 2 degrees, is possible - but the proposals on the table are not quite there . We need to capture the high-end of those proposals and more in Copenhagen, and then continue to ratchet-up commitments over time. We have a historic opportunity in Copenhagen to increase climate security and economic security for the world for generations to come."

Do United Nations Environment Programme