Posted on 19 October
2009 - Gland, Switzerland - The world has
just five years to initiate a low carbon
industrial revolution before runaway climate
change becomes almost inevitable. But the
good news is that it can be done and that
the long term benefits will be immense,
according to a new analysis from WWF.
Climate Solutions 2
(CS2) is the first analysis to put timetables
to the industrial transformations needed
to limit global carbon emissions to below
the 2°C level scientists identify as
presenting unacceptable risks of runaway
climate change. It was prepared for WWF
by Climate Risk, a company known for its
work on climate change for global insurers
and infrastructure providers.
The report found that
beyond 2014 the feasible upper limits of
industrial growth rates will make it impossible
for market economies to meet the carbon
targets required to keep global warming
below 2°C. The report also found that
market measures alone will not be enough
to deliver emissions reductions on the scale
required and that delays will increase the
levels of direct intervention needed in
the economy.
"Climate Solutions
2 tells us that we need to start making
the change to a low-carbon economy today,”
said Kim Carstensen, who leads WWF’s Global
Climate Initiative. “The transformation
will require sustained growth in clean and
efficient industry in excess of 20 per cent
a year over a period of decades.
“The report's modelling
shows how we can sustain these growth rates
but also makes it clear this will be the
fastest industrial revolution witnessed
in our history.
"The findings of
this report offer a pragmatic, sobering
and urgent warning to world leaders that
the window of opportunity to act on climate
change is rapidly closing. The time for
playing politics with our future is long
past."
The way forward, according
to the report, is simultaneous action on
all greenhouse gas emissions from all sectors,
with market measures backed with a full
range of other policies including energy
efficiency standards, feed-in tariffs for
renewable energy and an end to “perverse
“ subsidies for fossil fuel use.
According to the report,
countries not pursuing all carbon abatement
options in all sectors will tend to develop
least-cost industries first and only develop
other low carbon industries as they become
affordable.
Computer modelling and
historical records agree that sequential
development of industries, which would result
from undue reliance on a single mechanism
such as a rising carbon price, will make
it impossible to meet emissions targets
on time. Industries that come online later
will have to grow considerably faster because
of the delays in start-up and will be hit
harder by constraints on available resources,
labour and expertise.
"This analysis
shows that we can win the fight against
runaway climate change by transforming all
sectors of our economies concurrently, by
creating stable long-term investment environments
that don't seek immediate returns and through
focusing on key industry sectors,” said
Dr Stephan Singer, who leads WWF’s Global
Energy Initiative.
The industries that
will lead the transformation are renewable
energy generation, carbon capture and storage,
energy efficiency, sustainable low-carbon
agriculture and sustainable forestry. With
the clean industrial revolution under way
and sustained by a strong policy framework
all renewable energies become competitive
with fossil fuels between 2013 and 2025
– a highly conservative estimate based on
just 2% annual rises in fossil fuel prices
and no price on carbon.
"The wind, the
sea and the sun will cost the same today,
tomorrow and into the future, unlike coal,”
said Singer. “They can be the basis for
a cleaner world where energy supplies are
more secure and where we have the best chance
of preventing dramatic climate changes that
could endanger our cities, our food supplies
and the natural environment that we have
always depended on."
Climate Solutions 2
calculates that the extra investment worldwide
is expected to be US$17 trillion up to 2050
– or less than 15% of the funds currently
managed by institutional investors. The
returns on that investment are expected
to flow back into investor’s pockets from
2027 and in some cases even earlier.
For renewable technologies,
the cumulative investment to 2050 worldwide
will total US$7 trillion, but it is expected
generate returns to investors of around
six times as much.
"Climate Solutions
2 draws a line in the sand that we cannot
cross,” said Castensen. “It reinforces that
we have reached a pivotal moment in our
history where the window of opportunity
which remains to prevent runaway climate
change will soon disappear entirely.
“Most immediately and
importantly, the basis for this transformation
has to be laid in Copenhagen in December
with a fair, binding and effective new global
deal on climate change.”
