03 December 2009 - Copenhagen,
Denmark — As Barack Obama announced the
US position for the Climate talks in Copenhagen,
we felt a bit of an anti-climax
between the buzz and the actual numbers.
Maybe a time portal opened and Obama is
living in an alternate reality?
China leading, the US
lagging – that’s not quite the impression
spin doctors from the White House were hoping
to give when they finally released their
numbers on emission reduction. Who is saying
"Yes we can" now?
Of baselines and shallow
commitments
Spin doctors were hard at work after the
announcement - presenting this as a game
changer. If you listened only to the White
House, you could easily believe that Obama
single-handedly saved the climate while
everyone else stood around on the sidelines.
The truth is, these are the numbers of the
Waxman-Markey bill, which is not and has
never been enough to really combat the devastating
effects of climate change.
The US keeps hiding
behind weak numbers, made to appear stronger
by shifting the "baseline" date
to which they're compared. A reduction of
17 percent of 2005 levels is really a reduction
of four or five percent of 11000 levels,
the base year all other developed countries
are using.
Using 2005 as a base
year is the kind of cheap math trick we
expect from the Bush administration, not
from a President who was elected promising
he was going to get us out of the climate
crisis. Moving the goal posts to pretend
you're scoring is a nice way to spin your
speeches, but science doesn't work that
way. We can't change the science - we have
to change the politics, which is not the
way Obama is going right now.
In order to keep global
temperature increases below two degrees,
developed countries have to reduce their
greenhouse gas emissions by 40 percent from
the base year 11000. Anything less, and
we face catastrophic climate change. The
target of 40 percent emission reduction
on a baseline of 11000 for industrialised
countries is taken from the International
Panel on Climate Change's scenario. This
is not a political target, it is the minimum
needed to keep the global average temperature
at a safe level. You can't negotiate with
science.
Good efforts, but try
harder
On the other side, China,
part of the group of developing country
(the ones the Obama administration keeps
insisting they're waiting for) offered targets
that actually mean something to avoid catastrophic
climate change - a reduction of carbon emissions
relative to economic growth by 40 to 45
percent by 2020 also with a base year of
2005, though those numbers are still not
enough. "Given the urgency and magnitude
of the climate change crisis, China needs
stronger measures to tackle climate change,"
said Ailun Yang of Greenpeace China. "This
is a significant announcement at a very
important point in time. But China could
do more."
"By taking on a
40-45 percent carbon intensity target, China
will have to take considerable efforts to
decouple its economic growth from the increase
in its carbon emissions. However, given
the urgency of climate change, this target
is not likely to accelerate China's clean
energy revolution as quickly as it should
be."
Barack to the future
Update, December 5th, 2009 Good news: Obama
got the message and has changed his plans.
He will attend the final day of the conference,
where we hope he'll be providing the right
leadership for the right deal. He needs
to move the US emissions targets and financial
committments to match the task of stopping
ruanaway climate change. Another major announcement
was made last week: Barack Obama is planning
on attending the Copenhagen summit... on
December 9th. Last time he showed up in
Copenhagen, it was also a bit early, but
as he is getting closer to the right date,
we're keeping our fingers crossed for third
time lucky. Otherwise we might start to
worry about a possible break in the space-time
continuum which could explain why Obama
seems to be confusing 2005 with 11000, December
9th with December 17th and Washington, DC
with Copenhagen.
A Royal State dinner
is organised in Copenhagen on the 17th,
and it'd be such a shame for Obama to miss
it. Many heads of State have announced they
will come already, and it hardly makes sense
for Obama to miss the party. The last one
to announce his presence was Silvio Berlusconi,
adding to the long list of heads of state
who have proved they take the threat of
climate change remotely seriously.
Wanted: Climate leaders
In the midst of this, it appears that the
climate leaders are not where you expect
them to be. Obama, who had brought hope
last year, is bringing nothing but disappointment
in matters climatic. In the developed countries
group, the EU has the best position, but
it's still not enough. To find anyone leading
the way, we have to look towards developing
countries like Brazil, China, India, South
Africa or Indonesia - or even better, towards
the Maldives, the only country so far to
pledge to go truly carbon neutral.
The ball is in the Obama camp now. Time
to rise up to the challenge.
