01 February 2010 - International
— The first milestone
of the Copenhagen Accord came and went,
and with it no sign of the kind of targets
for cutting global warming pollution needed
to steer the world off the path towards
catastrophic climate change.
The only way the Copenhagen
Accord could possibly be a useful political
declaration was if its January 31st deadline
had been met with tougher new greenhouse
gas emission targets. After all, its stated
goal is supposed to be to keep global temperatures
from rising above 2 degrees C (3.6 degrees
F) to avoid the worst impacts of climate
change.
But governments tried
to greenwash their failure at the UN Copenhagen
climate summit by merely repeating existing
targets and dressing them up as action.
So far, these targets will fail to hold
global warming to below 3 degrees C; an
increase which threatens to have horrendous
consequences.
What will it take for
politicians to realise that time is running
out?
Masks off
It should be obvious to everyone - even
those who tried hard to pretend the world
was saved after Copenhagen - that the Accord
is a document barely worth the paper it
is written on. It was put together quickly
by politicians hoping to pass for leaders.
Saving face - that was
its purpose. Our climate was the least of
politicians' concerns then, and obviously
still is.
Summing it up, Bernhard
Obermayr, Head of the Climate and Energy
Campaign, Greenpeace Central and Eastern
Europe said, "Today is the day for
an obituary about the Copenhagen Accord's
ability to protect the climate."
Where we stand now
How do governments avoid the 2 degree C
threshold from being breached?
It's no secret. By 2020,
industrialised nations must cut their greenhouse
gas emissions by 40% below 11000 levels
and developing countries need to reduce
their projected growth in emissions by 15-30%.
Further, the industrialised world needs
to provide developing countries with new
and additional funding of at least USD 140
billion annually to support clean energy
and other mitigation activities, forest
protection and adaptation. To give this
package teeth, it must be set in a legally
binding agreement.
In the run-up to Copenhagen,
15 million people called for a fair, ambitious
and legally binding treaty. We're still
waiting...
'Associating' - since
the Accord is not legally binding and was
noted but not adopted by the UN Conference,
associated is the best they can do - with
the Accord, the European Union repeated
its target of a 20 percent emissions cut
against 11000 levels - old news, and only
half of what is required. The US is sticking
by the meagre 17 percent of 2005 levels
but making that dependent of domestic legislation.
In stark contrast to
the absence of leadership by the rich industrialised
world, the Republic of the Marshall Islands,
one of the lowest-lying Pacific island nations
last week said it's going to cut its emissions
by 40 percent by 2020. Lying only 2 meters
above sea level, the Marshall Islands is
in danger of being washed off the map. In
other words, the industrialised world has
been shamed for its inaction by one of the
most vulnerable nations on the planet.
Putting the "dead"
in "deadline"
January 31st was a political deadline. We
are approaching other deadlines though;
ones that nature decides on and which politicians
will not be able to talk their way out of.
If global warming gets to the point where
'tipping points' are passed there will be
no way for us to backtrack and undo the
mess.
While three degrees
of warming would likely be catastrophic.
But even 2 degrees C risks possible partial,
but irreversible deglaciation of the Greenland
ice sheet and even the West Antarctic ice
sheet, that could eventually lead to sea
level rise of several meters. Half-of-one
degree more could lead to 20-80% loss of
the Amazon rainforest and countless species
that live in the rainforest.
Right-click to view
image. Source: The Third Degree.
It is the poorest
and those least responsible for causing
the problem who are most vulnerable to the
effects of climate change. The fight for
survival of millions of people around the
world and countless species of plants and
animals is the brutal reality as permafrost
melts, sea levels rise, tropical storms
batter continents and once-fertile lands
battle with floods or drought. But climate
change knows no borders - we will all feel
its impacts. It threatens economies, environments,
human society and welfare.
