Cancun (Mexico), 7
December 2010 - A landmark assessment, spotlighting
the emissions gaps between what nations
pledged on climate change 12 months ago
and what is actually needed to avoid a 2
degree temperature rise, was formally handed
over today to the Government of Mexico.
The report, coordinated
by the UN Environment Programme (UNEP) with
researchers from 25 climate modeling centres
world-wide, has provided a key focus for
governments at the UN climate change convention
negotiations in Cancun.
Achim Steiner, UN Under-Secretary
General and UNEP Executive Director, delivered
the report to Juan Rafael Elvira Quesada,
the Mexican environment minister whose National
Institute of Ecology-SEMARNAT was one of
the key steering organizations along with
the European Climate Foundation.
Minister Elvira highlighted
the valuable contribution of the report
to the current negotiations at the COP-16.
He mentioned that the report "acts
as a trigger to promote, at global scale,
an increase in our level of ambition to
tackle climate change", and added that
"we are only halfway. We have identified
and quantified the gap, we want now to continue
our collaboration with UNEP on filling this
noticeable gap".
Minister Elvira also
asked UNEP to consider follow-up reports
including a periodic emissions progress
study and one outlining how the gaps between
'current ambition and scientific reality'
can be bridged by the key date of 2020.
He said Mexico stood
ready to back such assessments and reports
in support of international efforts to combat
climate change.
According to scientists,
global emissions should be around 44 Gigatonnes
(Gt) of CO2 equivalent in ten years time
in order to have a good chance of keeping
a global temperature rise under 2 degrees
C 30 years later.
If all the pledges made
at and after the 2009 UN Copenhagen climate
summit were met in full, including the financing
pledges, emissions might hit 49 Gt leaving
a gap of 5Gt of CO2 equivalent that needs
to be filled by greater action.
Mr. Steiner said: "The
government of Mexico and its scientists
has played a key role with other members
of the international community in assisting
UNEP assess and interpret the complexity
of the Copenhagen pledges".
"The report, which
were are proud to hand over today to Minister
Elvira today, has provided a reference that
can assist governments towards focused action
including anchoring here in Cancun promises
that could take the world 60 per cent of
the way towards what is urgently needed,"
he added.
UNEP will now look to
assessing how the gap can be bridged including
action on short-lived non-CO2 pollutants
such as methane, tropospheric ozone and
black carbon as compliments to the over-arching
challenge of deep cuts on long-lived CO2
emissions.
Several governments,
research institutes and initiatives such
as the Prototype Methane Financing Facility
proposed by The Methane Blue Ribbon Panel
are keen to take the opportunity of the
up coming UNEP Governing Council/Global
Ministerial Environment Forum taking place
in Nairobi, Kenya in February to assess
the multiple health, agricultural and climate
benefits of fast action on non CO2 pollutants
as well as creative financing mechanisms
to accelerate mitigation.
Notes to Editors
The Emissions Gap Report: Are the Copenhagen
Accord pledges sufficient to limit global
warming to 2 or 1.5°C? , is the work
of over 30 researchers from 25 centres in
countries including Australia, Austria,
Belgium, Brazil, China, Denmark, Germany,
India, Japan, Mexico, the Netherlands, New
Zealand, Switzerland, the United Kingdom
and the United States.
It builds on work carried
out in the wake of the UN climate change
convention meeting in Copenhagen while also
assessing the prospects and pathways for
the even tougher target of keeping a global
temperatures rise to 1.5 degrees Celsius
or under over the century.
The report, whose compilation
was led by the UNEP Chief Scientist, found
that:
Under a business-as-usual
scenario, annual emissions of greenhouse
gases could be around 56 gigatonnes of CO2
equivalent by 2020. As a point of reference,
global emissions were estimated to be around
48 gigatonnes in 2009;
Fully implementing the
pledges and intentions associated with the
Copenhagen Accord could, in the best case
identified by the group, cut emissions to
around 49 gigatonnes of CO2 equivalent by
2020;
This would leave a gap
of around 5 gigatonnes of CO2 equivalent
that needs to be bridged over the coming
decade - an amount equal to the emissions
of all the world's cars, buses and trucks
in 2005;
In the worst case identified
in the report - where countries follow their
lowest ambitions and accounting rules set
by negotiators are lax rather than strict
- emissions could be as high as 53 gigatonnes
in 2020, only slightly lower than business
as usual projections.
Acknowledgements
The United Nations Environment Programme
(UNEP) would like to thank the Steering
Committee, all the lead and contributing
authors, and the Secretariat for their contribution
to the development of this report. Organisations
are given below for identification purposes
only.
Steering Committee Members:
Joseph Alcamo, Chair (UNEP), Kilaparti Ramakrishna
(UNEP), Bert Metz (European Climate Foundation),
Suzana Kahn Ribeiro (COPPE, Federal University
of Rio de Janeiro), Anand Patwardhan (Indian
Institute of Technology Bombay), Adrian
Fernandez (Instituto Nacional de Ecologia-SEMARNAT,
Mexico) and Julia Martinez (Instituto Nacional
de Ecologia-SEMARNAT, Mexico).
Lead Authors: Michel
den Elzen (PBL Netherlands Environmental
Assessment Agency), William Hare (Potsdam
Institute for Climate Impact Research),
Niklas Höhne (Ecofys), Kelly Levin
(World Resources Institute), Jason Lowe
(Met Office, Hadley Center), Keywan Riahi
(International Institute for Applied Systems
Analysis), Joeri Rogelj (ETH Zurich), Elizabeth
Sawin (Climate Interactive), Chris Taylor
(Grantham Research Institute, LSE), Detlef
van Vuuren (PBL Netherlands Environmental
Assessment Agency), Murray Ward (Global
Climate Change Consultants).
Contributing Authors:
Valentina Bosetti (Fondazione Eni Enrico
Mattei), Claudine Chen (Potsdam Institute
for Climate Impact Research), Rob Dellink
(Organisation for Economic Co-operation
and Development),, Jørgen Fenhann
(UNEP Risø), Claudio Gesteira (COPPE,
Federal University of Rio de Janeiro), Tatsuya
Hanaoka (National Institute for Environmental
Studies), Mikiko Kainuma (National Institute
for Environmental Studies), Jiang Kejun
(Energy Research Institute), Emanuele Massetti
(Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei), Ben Matthews
(UCLouvain, Centre for Earth and Climate
Research), Caspar Olausson (Danish Energy
Agency), Brian O'Neill (National Center
for Atmospheric Research), Nicola Ranger
(Grantham Research Institute, LSE), Fabian
Wagner (International Institute for Applied
Systems Analysis), Zhao Xiusheng (Tsinghua
University).
Secretariat: Ramzi Elias,
Project Manager (European Climate Foundation),
Maria Blazogiannaki (European Climate Foundation),
Harsha Dave (UNEP), Ernest Imbamba (UNEP).
