Wed, Nov 21, 2012
Keeping Average Global Temperature Rise
to Below 2°C Still Achievable, with
Potentially Big Cuts Possible from Buildings,
Transportation and Avoided Deforestation
- But Time Running Out
Current Pledges by Governments Indicate
a 3-5° C Temperature Rise this Century
without Fast Action. Photo Credit: Shutterstock/
Christian Kobierski
London/Nairobi, 21 November
2012 - If the world does not scale up and
accelerate action on climate change without
delay, emissions could rise to 58 gigatonnes
(Gt) by 2020 - far above the level scientists
say is in line with a likely chance of keeping
global temperature rise below 2 degrees
Celsius this century.
The Emissions Gap Report 2012, coordinated
by the UN Environment Programme (UNEP) and
the European Climate Foundation, and released
days before the convening of the Climate
Change Conference of the Parties in Doha,
says that if the world stays on a business-as-usual
trajectory, more drastic and expensive cuts
will be needed after 2020.
Previous assessment reports have underlined
that scenarios which keep the costs of meeting
the two-degree target as low as possible
involve ambitious early action. In these
scenarios, emissions are on average at around
44 Gt or less in 2020, thus laying the path
for the even-bigger reductions needed afterwards.
Economic assessments
highlighted in the report indicate that
overall costs will increase considerably
if emissions reductions are delayed until
after 2020.
Delaying action also
implies a greater risk of temperature rise
exceeding two degrees - beyond which irreversible
damage to the environment could occur -
and a heavier long-term dependence on mitigation
technologies such as bioenergy and carbon
capture and storage.
However, emissions of
warming gases like carbon dioxide (CO2)
are actually increasing. Total greenhouse
gas emissions have risen from around 40
Gt in 2000 to an estimated 50.1 Gt in 2010.
The report, which involved
55 scientists from more than 20 countries,
said the projected 2020 emissions of 58Gt
that would result from business as usual
leave a gap bigger than projected in the
2010 and 2011 UNEP assessments. This expansion
is in part a result of projected economic
growth in key developing economies and a
phenomenon known as 'double counting' of
emission offsets.
The Emissions Gap Report
2012 points out that even if the most ambitious
level of pledges and commitments were implemented
by all countries - and under the strictest
set of rules - there would be a gap of 8
Gt of CO2 equivalent by 2020. This is 2
Gt higher than last year's assessment.
Achim Steiner, UN Under-Secretary
General and UNEP Executive Director, said:
"There are two realities encapsulated
in this report-that bridging the gap remains
do-able with existing technologies and policies;
that there are many inspiring actions taking
place at the national level on energy efficiency
in buildings, investing in forests to avoid
emissions linked with deforestation and
new vehicle emissions standards alongside
a remarkable growth in investment in new
renewable energies worldwide, which in 2011
totaled close to US$260 billion".
"Yet the sobering
fact remains that a transition to a low
carbon, inclusive Green Economy is happening
far too slowly and the opportunity for meeting
the 44 Gt target is narrowing annually,"
he added.
"While governments
work to negotiate a new international climate
agreement to come into effect in 2020, they
urgently need to put their foot firmly on
the action pedal by fulfilling financial,
technology transfer and other commitments
under the UN climate convention treaties.
There are also a wide range of complementary
voluntary measures that can that can bridge
the gap between ambition and reality now
rather than later," said Mr. Steiner.
The report estimates
that there are potentially large emissions
reductions possible-in a mid-range of 17
Gt of CO2 equivalents-from sectors such
as buildings, power generation and transport
that can more than bridge the gap by 2020.
Meanwhile, there are
abundant examples of actions at the national
level in areas ranging from improved building
codes to fuel standards for vehicles which,
if scaled up and replicated, can also assist.
Christiana Figueres,
Executive Secretary of the UN Framework
Convention on Climate Change, said, "This
report is a reminder that time is running
out, but that the technical means and the
policy tools to allow the world to stay
below a maximum 2 degrees Celsius are still
available to governments and societies".
"Governments meeting
in Doha for COP18 now need to urgently implement
existing decisions which will allow for
a swifter transition towards a low-carbon
and resilient world. This notably means
amending the Kyoto Protocol, developing
a clear vision of how greenhouse gases can
be curbed globally before and after 2020,
and completing the institutions required
to help developing countries green their
economies and adapt, along with defining
how the long-term climate finance that developing
countries need can be mobilized. In addition,
governments need to urgently identify how
ambition can be raised, "added Ms.
Figueres.
Bridging the Gap
The report looked at
sectors where the necessary emissions reductions
may be possible by 2020.
Improved energy efficiency
in industry could deliver cuts of between
1.5 to 4.6 Gt of CO2 equivalent; followed
by agriculture, 1.1 to 4.3 Gt; forestry
1.3 to 4.2 Gt; the power sector, 2.2 to
3.9 Gt; buildings 1.4 to 2.9 Gt; transportation
including shipping and aviation 1.7 to 2.5
Gt and the waste sector around 0.8 Gt.
Buildings
The report points out
that some sectors have even bigger potential
over the long term-boosting the energy efficiency
of buildings, for example, could deliver
average reductions of around 2.1 Gt by 2020
but cuts of over 9Gt CO2 equivalent by 2050.
"This implies that
by 2050 the building sector could consume
30 per cent less electricity compared to
2005 despite a close to 130 per cent projected
increase in built floor area over the same
period," it says.
The report concludes
that if this is to happen, "state of
the art building codes may need to become
mandatory in the next 10 years in all of
the major economies such as the United States,
India, China and the European Union".
Further emission reductions
are possible from more energy efficient
appliances and lighting systems. The report
cites Japan's Top Runner Programme and the
Ecodesign Directive of the European Union
which have triggered household electricity
consumption savings of 11 per cent and 16
per cent respectively.
It also cites Ghana's
standards and labelling programme for air
conditioners which is set to save consumers
and businesses an estimated US$64 million
annually in reduced energy bills and around
2.8 million tonnes of CO2 equivalent over
30 years.
Sustainable Transportation
Potential emissions
reductions from the transportation sector
are assessed at 2 Gt of CO2 equivalent by
2020.
The report notes that
there is already a shift with the eight
biggest multilateral development banks at
the recent Rio+20 Summit pledging US$175
billion over the next decade for measures
such as bus rapid transport systems.
The report recommends
the "Avoid, Shift and Improve' polices
and measures that encourage improved land
planning and alternative mobility options
such as buses, cycling and walking above
the private car alongside better use of
rail freight and inland waterways.
Combinations of improved
vehicle standards and scrappage schemes
for old vehicles can also assist. The report
says approved and proposed new standards
in seven countries ranging from Australia
and China to the European Union, the Republic
of Korea and the United States are expected
to reduce fuel consumption and greenhouse
gas emissions of new light-duty vehicles
by over 50 per cent by 2025 from 2000 levels.
Forestry
"Although it remained
under-utilized, "avoided deforestation"
is considered a low cost greenhouse gas
emissions reductions option," says
the report.
Policies to assist in
reducing deforestation and, thus, greenhouse
gas emissions, include establishing protected
areas such as national parks to economic
instruments such as taxes, subsidies and
payments for ecosystem services.
The report cites Brazil
where a combination of conservation policies
allied to falls in agricultural commodity
prices has led to a decrease in deforestation
by three quarters since 2004 avoiding 2.8
Gt of CO2 equivalent between 2006 and 2011.
Protected areas in Costa
Rica now represent over as fifth of its
territory, reducing greenhouse gas emissions
and triggering a rise in tourists from just
under 390,000 in 1988 to 2.5 million in
2008: tourism now accounts for around 15
per cent of GDP.
These actions by Brazil
and Costa Rica predate Reduced Emissions
from Deforestation and forest Degradation
(REDD or REDD+) policies under the UN Convention
for Combating Climate Change.
The report indicates
that scaled-up action under, for example,
the UN-REDD initiative which is working
with over 40 countries, can provide even
larger emission reductions while generating
additional benefits such as jobs in natural
resource management.
Notes to Editors
The Third Emissions
Gap Report 2012 is available at: http://www.unep.org/publications/ebooks/emissionsgap2012
More information on the first and second
assessments of the Emissions Gap is available
at www.unep.org
UNEP's Climate Change portal: http://www.unep.org/climatechange/
The European Climate Foundation:http://www.europeanclimate.org/
UNFCCC: www.unfccc.int
+ More
Green Innovators Receive
Young Environmental Leader Award
Fri, Nov 9, 2012
Shrimp Waste Recycling, Plastic Bag Clothing
Project, and Green Guide for Housewives
Among Winning Projects
Leverkusen (Germany) / Nairobi, 10 November
2012 - Three students from Costa Rica, Kenya
and Vietnam have received a major international
youth award from the United Nations Environment
Programme (UNEP) and Bayer in recognition
of their environmental efforts.
The young environmental
innovators received the 2012 Young Environmental
Leader Award for creating own sustainable
development projects; a scientific process
to convert waste shrimp shells into ingredients
for medicines, a community project recycling
plastic bags into clothing and homeward,
and an environmental guide for housewives
and families.
FURTHER RESOURCES
Bayer Young Environmental Envoy Programme
UNEP's TUNZA programme
Young Environmental Envoy Facebook page
The award ceremony was held on the final
day of the 2012 Young Environmental Envoy
Programme in Leverkusen, Germany.
Adriana Maria Villalobos
Delgado, a 20-year-old chemistry student
at the Universidad Nacional in Heredia,
Costa Rica, reuses "waste" shrimp
shells which would otherwise pollute the
marine environment, by extracting active
ingredients for the production of medicines.
The project aims to find more sustainable
models for the shrimp industry - one of
Costa Rica's most important economic sectors.
Mwanyuma Hope Mugambi,
23, studies environmental sciences in Mombasa,
Kenya. She and her team of volunteers have
created a project to help tackle the environmental,
health and biodiversity hazards caused by
discarded polythene bags. Local women are
trained to sew purses, bags, table mats
from plastic bags that are collected from
around the community. The projects expand
the skills of the local women, many of whom
come from marginalized communities, and
support their income through the sale of
the products.
20-year-old Dang Huyn
Mai Anh, a business administration student
from Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam, has developed
a novel approach towards reducing energy
consumption and resource use in private
households. Based on extensive research,
she successfully designed, produced and
distributed a "Green Handbook for Housewives".
The guide also includes information on economic
savings that households can make from using
resources more efficiently.
An expert panel from
UNEP, the UNEP / Wuppertal Institute Collaborating
Centre on Sustainable Consumption and Production
(CSCP), Tunza Magazine, (UNEP's publication
for young people), and Bayer selected the
three winners.
Each winner receives
a tailor-made package to support and expand
their projects, worth EUR 1,000.
"All three projects
offer innovative and sound solutions to
major environmental challenges of today,"
said Dirk Frenzel, responsible for environmental
issues at Bayer Communications, and a member
of the jury. "The winners represent
the smart knowledge and extraordinary commitment
of all Bayer Young Environmental Envoys."
"From waste management
to resource efficiency and awareness campaigns,
both the winners of the Bayer Young Environmental
Leader Award, and all of the 2012 Young
Environmental Envoys, clearly demonstrate
that young people across the world have
the motivation, creativity and knowledge
to provide concrete solutions to the world's
most critical environmental challenges,"
said Achim Steiner, UN Under-Secretary General
and UNEP Executive Director.
"With the right
kind of support, these innovative projects
can be scaled up and replicated elsewhere,
thus providing an important contribution
to an inclusive, low carbon, resource efficient
green economy, which is vital if the world
is to meet the resource needs of a global
population of 9 billion by 2050," he
added.
The award was presented
at the closing ceremony of this year's field
trip to Germany of the "Bayer Young
Environmental Envoy Programme", a major
project under the UNEP-Bayer partnership
for youth and the environment.
The 2012 programme brought
together close to 50 young environmental
envoys from 19 developing and emerging countries
for an environmental study tour in Germany.
The programme provides
the envoys with insight into the latest
research and technology being applied to
waste management, renewable energy, resource
efficiency, and other critical environmental
issues.
Each Young Environmental
Envoy is involved in a sustainable development
project in his or her home country. The
three winning projects were judged to demonstrate
the greatest innovation, sustainability,
and potential impact.
Since its inception,
some 11,200 young people have applied for
a place on the programme and over 500 envoys
have been selected to take part in the study
tour in Germany.
The programme now covers
the following countries: Argentina, Brazil,
Chile, China, Colombia, Costa Rica, Ecuador,
India, Indonesia, Kenya, Malaysia, Peru,
the Philippines, Singapore, South Africa,
South Korea, Thailand, Venezuela and Vietnam.
Through an alumni network
on Facebook and via UNEP's TUNZA youth network,
envoys past and present can stay connected
and exchange ideas on how to develop their
individual projects.
